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Summer 2002 Contest

FULL STATS - Summer 2002 Contest (Updated Nightly)

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From: ncrdrg | Posted: 8/29/2002 5:36:22 AM | Message Detail

btw..i just checked ffonline..didnt see any link
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"Britney songs are like Final Fantasy, evryone plays it, yet diss it in public" RamzaFX

From: Mario0128 | Posted: 8/29/2002 5:53:47 AM | Message Detail

wow solar, either your really fast at typing or you pre-made this, either way, great work!!! and thanks for the update!

From: ncrdrg | Posted: 8/29/2002 6:12:42 AM | Message Detail

Well..even though im rooting for square characters..you cant really deny mario couldnt win with his fans on gamefaqs.com. Advertisement and all for mario and cloud ruined the tournament. I hope it wont happen ever again. The contest doesnt represent gamefaqs anymore..link is taking out seph more easily than he should..thats my opinion. Mario wouldnt have advanced..crono could have beaten cloud since mario fans prefer crono and rpg fans split their votes. Btw..i still hope crono vs link will happen. I happen to be a Square fanboy too,..sort of.
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"Britney songs are like Final Fantasy, evryone plays it, yet diss it in public" RamzaFX

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/29/2002 12:50:45 PM | Message Detail

I couldn't find the link on ffonline either, which is why I qualified it with "apparently". I heard it mentioned enough times to suspect it was true, but if it was the link was taken down by the following day. Maybe if we poked around on their forums we could find out more.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: Jjukil | Posted: 8/29/2002 1:04:35 PM | Message Detail

One last thing to consider... if a major Final Fantasy site had put up a large "vote for Cloud" link, and PGC had not put up one for Mario... if Mario had led with about 1000 votes halfway through the day, only to have that lead disappear... in short, had the situation being reversed as completely as symmetry allows, would you still feel the same way? This isn't intended as a rhetorical question. Pause for a moment and think about it.

Yep.

...wait. No, not quite.
I'd have been a little more impressed with Mario, actually. On Gamefaqs, he was probably the underdog in this battle; to go toe to toe with Cloud while he was even advertising on other sites would be most impressive.

But if you're asking if I'd cry foul if Cloud, not Mario, had a major site on his side and won...the answer is no.

Thanks, Jjukil

From: Panthera | Posted: 8/29/2002 1:29:58 PM | Message Detail

I really don't think campaining for votes is right in this sort of thing. At least not the way it was done. Its okay if you go to a site like GameTalk, and post in several forums, including FF ones AND some Nintendo ones about this contest, then we have the benefit of extra voters. But going to a Nintendo site and mentioning it is unfair. Its like you went to a club, told them that in 2 days, there would be a vote for what country on Earth is the best, and in the time before it, you recruited 100 Americans into it, even though the club had only 130 people to start with. It makes the result biased.
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"Kids can be so cruel"-Marge
"We can? Cool!"-Bart.

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/29/2002 7:26:47 PM | Message Detail

Some brief Scorpion vs. Link analysis.

Well, finally a relatively boring match to let us catch our breath. This one was never in doubt, and the fact that Link smoked Scorpion was entirely expected.

The match ranks as the 15th biggest blowout of the tournament, which is actually pretty impressive for a fourth round match. And thanks to the increased popularity of the fourth round matches, the vote gap approached 48000, which makes it the 5th biggest gap of the contest. That's a pretty sizeable victory.

The vote total wasn't as high as the previous 3 matches, but the 91535 total votes still places it 4th on the Top 10 Most Popular Polls list. Link's previous polls brought in about 10000 more votes than Scorpion's, so while impressive totals are old hat for Link, this is the first time Scorpion can claim to be in a notably popular poll.

So, Link's domination continues. His average vote percentage is an impressive 77%, and he is the only character that has never gotten less than 70% of the vote in any of his matches. Also, his most recent vote count of 69544 places him at the top of the Biggest Vote Getters list by almost 5000 votes more than the next character, and he joins Cloud as the only other character to break 50000 votes in all 4 of his matches, and Mega Man as the only other character to break 60000 votes twice. Also note that he was only 500 votes shy of breaking 60000 in his first match and less than 500 votes shy of being the only character to reach 70000 votes. And with Mega Man and Cloud out of the picture, Link is clearly the most dominating character remaining.

Scorpion did well to get this far in the tournament, but he was really no match for Link. Scorpion had been averaging a modest 40000 votes in his previous matches, but only garnered 22000 in his final battle. His percentage took a tumble to 24%, giving him an overall average of about 55%. So, after overcoming the odds and pulling off upsets in the previous 2 rounds, Scorpion is finally gone. This also marks the first casualty for the impressive trio of 5th seeds. After beating number 4 and number 1 seeds in the previous 2 rounds, Crono went on to beat his number 2 seed (Solid Snake) while Scorpion lost to his (Link). The other surviving member, Samus, has her hands full with the 7th seeded Sephiroth and is unlikely to advance as well.

The mildly impressive 57.0% prediction percentage will be the highest of the fourth round, and most likely also the only one above the 50% mark. We've finally entered the stage of the contest where most of the contestants are getting each match wrong. So don't feel too bad if your bracket's falling apart, since it's happening to many others as well. Still, considering who Link's opponents were and how easily he breezed past them, it's a little bit surprising that more people didn't get it right. 69% had him winning his last match, so 22% of those then thought he would lose the division final to the likes of Pac-Man, Scorpion, or Max Payne. But at least Scorpion didn't win the match, because if he had the prediction percentage probably would have been in the 5% or lower range. :)

Next up for Link is a semi-final matchup against either Sephiroth or Samus (probably Sephiroth). I'd say that either way, Link will have the edge. He has shown no weakness in the competition so far, so it will be up to his opponent to either humble him or just watch him keep padding his statistics.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: MMXcaliburPartDeux | Posted: 8/29/2002 7:36:03 PM | Message Detail

Again, I am humbled in your presence of stats solar.

My prediction for Link vs Sephiroth, if Cloud (who was whipping Nintendo mascots Pikachu and Fox) couldn't take Mario....Sephiroth (who slid by Samus and Mega Man) isn't beating my other fave character Link. Link is very popular and isn't hated as much as Mario is around here.
Link wins 65-35, IMO.

As for Crono vs Mario, I honestly think it could go either way...Crono's got the Cloud voters behind him and Crono has a fanbase in his own right. Im not sure who Im voting for. Two of my fave characters. I might go Crono just because I enjoyed Chrono Trigger THAT MUCH! But I picked Mario.
Crono 51-49, IMO. In an upset.

Again, great job solar. All tourney long.
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MMXcalibur: Returns!!!!!!! (minus the warning....-_-''')

From: Samberdog | Posted: 8/29/2002 11:42:13 PM | Message Detail

I'm starting to get worried about tonight's match. It hasn't started yet but something keeps shouting "Crono! Crono! Crono!" at me. I won't be surprised if he loses anymore.

Hopefully he'll still pull through.
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I've been SHINE GOTTEN !!
Shine Count: 20

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/29/2002 11:50:53 PM | Message Detail

Thanks very much, MMXcalibur.

Crono beating Mario would be another amazing upset, but I don't doubt his abilities anymore. If that happens though I think Link will probably win the tournament. But that's not a bad guess either way. :)
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/30/2002 12:21:35 AM | Message Detail

Tonight's Results:

5 - Samus Aran (36:1) - 46047 / 47.36% (97224)
7 - Sephiroth (9:1) - 51177 / 52.64% (97224) - 6428 / 38.3%

Updated Lists:

Top 10 Closest Matches (difference in brackets)

1) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog 49.98% vs. Samus Aran 50.02% - (0.04%)
2) (iv) Mario 50.11% vs. Cloud Strife 49.89% - (0.22%)
3) (iii) Mega Man 49.49% vs. Sephiroth 50.51% - (1.02%)
4) (ii) Donkey Kong 51.06% vs. Aya Brea 48.94% - (2.12%)
5) Strider Hiryu 52.57% vs. Raziel 47.43% - (5.14%)
6) (iv) Samus Aran 47.36% vs. Sephiroth 52.64% - (5.28%)
7) (iv) Crono 52.93% vs. Solid Snake 47.07% - (5.86%)
8) Jill Valentine 53.34% vs. Kirby 46.66% - (6.68%)
9) Alucard 54.32% vs. Miles "Tails" Prower 45.68% - (8.64%)
10) Pikachu 54.41% vs. PaRappa The Rapper 45.59% - (8.82%)

Top 10 Smallest Vote Gaps (difference in brackets)

1) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog 41939 vs. Samus Aran 41973 - (34)
2) (iv) Mario 64990 vs. Cloud Strife 64713 - (277)
3) (iii) Mega Man 48185 vs. Sephiroth 49172 - (987)
4) (ii) Donkey Kong 31798 vs. Aya Brea 30478 - (1320)
5) Strider Hiryu 30662 vs. Raziel 27661 - (3001)
6) Jill Valentine 37539 vs. Kirby 32837 - (4702)
7) Pikachu 30711 vs. PaRappa The Rapper 25736 - (4975)
8) (iv) Samus Aran 46047 vs. Sephiroth 51177 - (5130)
9) Alucard 33516 vs. Miles "Tails" Prower 28190 - (5326)
10) (iv) Crono 52517 vs. Solid Snake 46697 - (5820)

Top 10 Most Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) (iv) Mario vs. Cloud Strife - 129703
2) (iv) Crono vs. Solid Snake - 99214
3) (iii) Mega Man vs. Sephiroth - 97357
4) (iv) Samus Aran vs. Sephiroth - 97224
5) (iv) Scorpion vs. Link - 91535
6) (iii) Jill Valentine vs. Link - 85273
7) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Samus Aran - 83912
8) (ii) Pikachu vs. Cloud Strife - 75371
9) (iii) Aeris vs. Solid Snake - 75247
10) (iii) Alucard vs. Cloud Strife - 74365

Top 10 Most Impressive Losers (by votes)

1) (iv) Cloud Strife - 64713
2) (iii) Mega Man - 48185
3) (iv) Solid Snake - 46697
4) (iv) Samus Aran - 46047
5) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog - 41939
6) Kirby - 32837
7) (iii) Aeris - 32702
8) (ii) Aya Brea - 30478
9) (iii) Pac-Man - 28936
10) (ii) Ryu - 28630

Top 10 Hardest Matches to Predict (based on percentage of contest entrants choosing the winner)

1) (iv) Crono 14.6% vs. Solid Snake
2) (iii) Pac-Man vs. Scorpion 17.3%
3) (ii) Alucard 28.8% vs. Duke Nukem
4) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Samus Aran 31.8%
5) (ii) Bomberman vs. Jill Valentine 32.5%
6) (iii) Lara Croft vs. Crono 33.1%
7) (ii) Scorpion 33.6% vs. Max Payne
8) (iv) Samus Aran vs. Sephiroth 38.3%
9) Morrigan Aensland 42.3% vs. Spyro the Dragon 57.7%
10) Gordon Freeman 56.3% vs. Tina Armstrong 43.7%

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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/30/2002 12:59:28 AM | Message Detail

I'm starting to see a distinct pattern in which lists need to be updated each night...

Anyway, the website is almost completely updated. I'll save the contest averages and the fourth round top 1 lists (ahem) for tomorrow. New poll going up very shortly. Not quite sure what yet, but I'll figure something out. :)
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/30/2002 1:38:04 AM | Message Detail

Well, the poll idea I had won't work because I'm only allowed 10 possible answers. Bah. I guess I'll leave the current one up a bit longer. It's a good poll and could use some more votes.

I just looked at the results page and determined that I no longer have a mathematical chance of winning this contest. Although if everything goes my way it's still technically possible for me to finish tied for third (albeit exceedingly unlikely). I'm not counting on it though. :)
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com
Stats Discussion: http://s1.cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=3916637

From: NeoElfboy | Posted: 8/30/2002 1:41:05 AM | Message Detail

Link wins 65-35, IMO.

You're mad. Absolutely mad. You're more crazy than I was when I said Samus would have an edge against Link (although now nobody will ever be able to prove I was crazy, thankfully for my bracket).

I agree that Link has to have the edge, but it's far from certain. I fully expect another Mario/Cloud affair. Do you honestly believe that 30% of Sephiroth's fanbase will suddenly turn against him and vote Link, combined with 100% of the Samus voters? Because even that wouldn't make the gap as wide as you propose...

As for Mario/Crono... Crono continues to absolutely amaze me. It's become clear that this will be yet another close one. I still see Mario winning, but Crono will put up a good fight, and may even pull off a massive upset.

And of course, after today's close match and tomorrow's, we likely have another close match to finish off the tournament. Earlier I figured Mario had it wrapped up, but now I think I may have overreacted to the impressive numbers (65000 against a very good opponent). Now, I just find it hard to call. Mario, Crono, Link, Sephiroth... none of the four has better than a 2 in 5 chance of winning it all, and none of the four winning would genuinely surprise me any more. It's anyone's game.

Nothing left to do but sit back, grab the popcorn, marvel at the insanities of fans, and enjoy the show.

~NeoElfboy
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"Sometimes I think your massive intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon themselves and transform into stat bonuses!" -RM
<VetSCCer>

From: Kirby Still On Top | Posted: 8/30/2002 10:08:26 AM | Message Detail

The top 49 going into the final 4:
Link - 14
Mario - 13
Sephiroth - 13
Crono - 6
Samus - 2
Solid snake - 1

From: atomtaco | Posted: 8/30/2002 12:15:48 PM | Message Detail

Just congratulating you on a job well done with these stats, solarshadow.

Kudos!

And I still believe Mario will win, being helped out greatly by the many people coming to this site, specifically for the purpose of looking for help with Super Mario Sunshine.

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Vote in the GAMEFAQS Greatest RPG Character Tournament at: http://s2.cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=4121201

From: Cthulhu | Posted: 8/30/2002 2:49:26 PM | Message Detail

::marks for future viewing::

From: ncrdrg | Posted: 8/30/2002 9:55:59 PM | Message Detail

Impressive..crono is gaining ground on mario..around 340-350 votes behind..It might be the biggest upset of this tournament. I hope crono will take out mario
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"Britney songs are like Final Fantasy, evryone plays it, yet diss it in public" RamzaFX

From: ncrdrg | Posted: 8/30/2002 10:04:57 PM | Message Detail

crono frenzy is on the board..right after mario took back some 65-70 votes..he came back strong and is now at 49.98! 47 votes behind..ill keep you guys informed..ahh i can barely wait for the next update! crono is currently pulling off the biggest upset!
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"Britney songs are like Final Fantasy, evryone plays it, yet diss it in public" RamzaFX

From: ncrdrg | Posted: 8/30/2002 10:23:39 PM | Message Detail

finally..it was a major cheater using a scrip who voted 490 times for crono. But he's still at 49.89 which is VERY close
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"Britney songs are like Final Fantasy, evryone plays it, yet diss it in public" RamzaFX

From: King Morgoth | Posted: 8/30/2002 10:32:48 PM | Message Detail

Keep up the good work solar!
Here are the last formatted stats I'll give you, I don't think the semi-finals and finals would be really that more useful once formatted.
http://www.geocities.com/kingmorgoth/stats4.txt

If Crono manages to beat Mario I wonder how many contestants will have picked this battle right....5% or so maybe? May he win or not, I think that since the beginning of this contest (and even more tonight) Crono has earned well-deserved respect, from both Square and Nintendo fans....
Are there many characters who can say they accomplished that? Not really....

Oh well, I'm going back to my bowl of pop-corn and I'll wait for the results ;)

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"Everything gold does not glitter
Not all those who wander are lost"

From: ncrdrg | Posted: 8/30/2002 10:55:09 PM | Message Detail

This is official..i repeat this is official..crono is currently leading by 20 votes! I have my fingers crossed to hope he keeps gaining.
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"Britney songs are like Final Fantasy, evryone plays it, yet diss it in public" RamzaFX

From: ncrdrg | Posted: 8/30/2002 11:39:24 PM | Message Detail

Mario took back the lead..and crono just gained it back..only 30 minutes remain..crono in the lead with 50.6% or about a little more than 100 votes. As someone else pointed out on the boards..this being the 1000th gamefaqs poll..isnt it a little ironic if crono won since he's from 1000 A.D? Anyway..30 minutes left..2 updates..we'll see what happens.
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"Britney songs are like Final Fantasy, evryone plays it, yet diss it in public" RamzaFX

From: marsman57 | Posted: 8/30/2002 11:43:10 PM | Message Detail

Dude, this contest is interesting... but I've lost all chances of winning, but I'm still into it. I'm glad to see Crono doing so well since everyone seemed to underestimate him ^_^. Sorry I haven't posted much lately, been busy with college!
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"Got a bad case of the Mondays? That's why Lord Chaos invented CAT COFFEE!" -- 8-bit theater

From: ncrdrg | Posted: 8/30/2002 11:48:37 PM | Message Detail

one update remaining..crono still in lead with 50.03% with a little less than 100 votes..i expect it will be heavily matched. Not trying to offend anyone..but i think we should now call this pulling a crono! Anyway..go crono! crono-link finals would be the most interesting..with the clash of the time heroes.
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"Britney songs are like Final Fantasy, evryone plays it, yet diss it in public" RamzaFX

From: Jjukil | Posted: 8/30/2002 11:53:25 PM | Message Detail

Heh. I guess I was right about one of my predictions after all. Took long enough. ^_^

I've been gone for most of the night. What did I miss? How long has Crono been this close? And what's this about a script voter for Crono...?
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http://members.aol.com/Jjukil
The Great Gamefaqs Character Battle: A Look Back

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/30/2002 11:53:32 PM | Message Detail

Well, I just got in after a long day and it looks like I've missed some excitement. I was expecting Mario to still be comfortably in the lead, not fighting for his life. And what's this about catching a cheater? I guess I missed all the fun. And I certainly didn't anticipate a photo finish. Cool.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: Jjukil | Posted: 8/30/2002 11:55:42 PM | Message Detail

...good grief, we just made almost exactly the same post, Solar. =P

*is fully expecting to see you post this just before he does*
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http://members.aol.com/Jjukil
The Great Gamefaqs Character Battle: A Look Back

From: ncrdrg | Posted: 8/30/2002 11:57:52 PM | Message Detail

I summarized since i know you guys werent there..and missed most of the fun..anyway 5 minutes left..and we shall see the winner.
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"Britney songs are like Final Fantasy, evryone plays it, yet diss it in public" RamzaFX

From: King Morgoth | Posted: 8/30/2002 11:58:32 PM | Message Detail

Hey Solar! Hey Jjukil!
The cheater you guys are talking about voted something like 490 times for Crono within 40 minutes, CJayC caught him and took away those 500 votes from Crono.
Mario was leading by about 1200-1300 (if I remember well) at about 6pm and Crono came back within a few hours and they've been exchanging the lead each 15 minutes for the last 2 hours :)
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"Everything gold does not glitter
Not all those who wander are lost"

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/31/2002 12:06:54 AM | Message Detail

Jjukil: Heh, and only 7 seconds apart. That is pretty amazing. I couldn't pull it off a second time though, because I got stuck trying to catch up on some website formatting for tonight's results (I'm way behind) and didn't see your post in time. :)

I just saw your website. Looks cool. I'll poke around some more when I have time. Don't suppose you'd mind if I linked to it from the stats site? Thought not. :)
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: marsman57 | Posted: 8/31/2002 12:29:01 AM | Message Detail

This is a little bonus... we don't know about people that have Mario winning because we don't know if they have Link or Sephiroth winning today, but these should be your top 10 if Sephiroth or Link win (barring a few differences if there are ties, I forgot to check and didn't feel like going back to mark them, the only ones I checked on were ties for 10th which are marked with a -, and in the case of only one - being marked that means that others are tied but unlisted)

If Sephiroth wins, this should be your top 10
Smrpg64
m0gster
vpRockstar
Skwave
Spektre
Evil Genius
Linksbrotherlunk
N64GmMstr
Secef 126
-a99a99a99

If Link wins, this should be your top 10
Burney
Fat Morton Jellyroll
TRA
synergy
magnolia brandon
I am spam
LeLoup
Moogle Man
Young Janus
-SutterCane
-SeladonEQ
-KyerWiz
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"Got a bad case of the Mondays? That's why Lord Chaos invented CAT COFFEE!" -- 8-bit theater

From: Jjukil | Posted: 8/31/2002 12:29:17 AM | Message Detail

Heh. Certainly not, Solar. =) I actually made a topic about it earlier today, but almost nobody's noticed so far. With today's matchup, though, I'm not sure I can blame them.

Like I said in that topic, tell me what you think, and feel free to make contributions. After the last few days, I'd especially value what you guys had to say.
If you'd rather keep them off of this topic, here's a link to the one I made earlier:
http://s1.cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=4129525
(Putting them there would help me, too, of course, since it would bump the topic.... ^_^)

And it's good to hear Ceej did something about that bit of cheating. As it turns out, it would have made all the difference. Man, what a close one. I was really pulling for Crono, too--especially when the final update had him ahead. =/ Ah well.

Did Ceej put up a message about the cheater on this board or something? If not, how did we find out about it? And if so, got a link to the topic I could check out?
---
http://members.aol.com/Jjukil
The Great Gamefaqs Character Battle: A Look Back

From: King Morgoth | Posted: 8/31/2002 12:33:23 AM | Message Detail

http://s2.cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=4133741
this is the link for the topic about the cheater
---
"Everything gold does not glitter
Not all those who wander are lost"

From: PRIMESTAR2000 | Posted: 8/31/2002 12:36:44 AM | Message Detail

why even give a damn about this crap?
---
"Welcome to the other side of reality, and this is your eternity" --- Look it up yourself!!!

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/31/2002 12:37:17 AM | Message Detail

Tonight's Results:

1 - Mario (6:1) - 53831 / 50.05% (107547) - 5190 / 31.0%
5 - Crono (33:1) - 53716 / 49.95% (107547)

Updated Lists:

Top 10 Closest Matches (difference in brackets)

1) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog 49.98% vs. Samus Aran 50.02% - (0.04%)
2) (v) Mario 50.05% vs. Crono 49.95% - (0.10%)
3) (iv) Mario 50.11% vs. Cloud Strife 49.89% - (0.22%)
4) (iii) Mega Man 49.49% vs. Sephiroth 50.51% - (1.02%)
5) (ii) Donkey Kong 51.06% vs. Aya Brea 48.94% - (2.12%)
6) Strider Hiryu 52.57% vs. Raziel 47.43% - (5.14%)
7) (iv) Samus Aran 47.36% vs. Sephiroth 52.64% - (5.28%)
8) (iv) Crono 52.93% vs. Solid Snake 47.07% - (5.86%)
9) Jill Valentine 53.34% vs. Kirby 46.66% - (6.68%)
10) Alucard 54.32% vs. Miles "Tails" Prower 45.68% - (8.64%)

Top 10 Smallest Vote Gaps (difference in brackets)

1) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog 41939 vs. Samus Aran 41973 - (34)
2) (v) Mario 53831 vs. Crono 53716 - (115)
3) (iv) Mario 64990 vs. Cloud Strife 64713 - (277)
4) (iii) Mega Man 48185 vs. Sephiroth 49172 - (987)
5) (ii) Donkey Kong 31798 vs. Aya Brea 30478 - (1320)
6) Strider Hiryu 30662 vs. Raziel 27661 - (3001)
7) Jill Valentine 37539 vs. Kirby 32837 - (4702)
8) Pikachu 30711 vs. PaRappa The Rapper 25736 - (4975)
9) (iv) Samus Aran 46047 vs. Sephiroth 51177 - (5130)
10) Alucard 33516 vs. Miles "Tails" Prower 28190 - (5326)

Top 10 Most Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) (iv) Mario vs. Cloud Strife - 129703
2) (v) Mario vs. Crono - 107547
3) (iv) Crono vs. Solid Snake - 99214
4) (iii) Mega Man vs. Sephiroth - 97357
5) (iv) Samus Aran vs. Sephiroth - 97224
6) (iv) Scorpion vs. Link - 91535
7) (iii) Jill Valentine vs. Link - 85273
8) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Samus Aran - 83912
9) (ii) Pikachu vs. Cloud Strife - 75371
10) (iii) Aeris vs. Solid Snake - 75247

Top 10 Most Impressive Losers (by votes)

1) (iv) Cloud Strife - 64713
2) (v) Crono - 53716
3) (iii) Mega Man - 48185
4) (iv) Solid Snake - 46697
5) (iv) Samus Aran - 46047
6) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog - 41939
7) Kirby - 32837
8) (iii) Aeris - 32702
9) (ii) Aya Brea - 30478
10) (iii) Pac-Man - 28936

Top 10 Hardest Matches to Predict (based on percentage of contest entrants choosing the winner)

1) (iv) Crono 14.6% vs. Solid Snake
2) (iii) Pac-Man vs. Scorpion 17.3%
3) (ii) Alucard 28.8% vs. Duke Nukem
4) (v) Mario 31.0% vs. Crono
5) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Samus Aran 31.8%
6) (ii) Bomberman vs. Jill Valentine 32.5%
7) (iii) Lara Croft vs. Crono 33.1%
8) (ii) Scorpion 33.6% vs. Max Payne
9) (iv) Samus Aran vs. Sephiroth 38.3%
10) Morrigan Aensland 42.3% vs. Spyro the Dragon 57.7%

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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/31/2002 12:39:17 AM | Message Detail

And another (wouldn't all fit in one post):

Top 10 Most Even Matches (based on the odds, ratio in italics)

1) (v) Link (9:1) vs. Sephiroth (9:1) - 1.0
2) (ii) Crono (33:1) vs. Dante (36:1) - 1.1
3) Ryo Hazuki (250:1) vs. Guybrush Threepwood (300:1) - 1.2
3) Bomberman (250:1) vs. Kane (300:1) - 1.2
5) Terry Bogard (200:1) vs. Aya Brea (250:1) - 1.3
5) (iii) Samus Aran (36:1) vs. Sonic the Hedgehog (45:1) - 1.3
7) (ii) Jill Valentine (180:1) vs. Bomberman (250:1) - 1.4
8) (iii) Crono (33:1) vs. Lara Croft (50:1) - 1.5
9) (ii) Samus Aran (36:1) vs. Ryu (55:1) - 1.5
10) Raziel (160:1) vs. Strider Hiryu (250:1) - 1.6

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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/31/2002 1:11:25 AM | Message Detail

Thanks again for the formatting, King Morgoth. Your help has been greatly appreciated throughout the contest. I've updated the website with the formatted lists... I think. I've got so much to catch up on I can't remember what I've done. Oh well, only 2 more days and I can relax. :)

And you're probably right, if Crono had won the prediction percentage would probably be around 5% (even less, I'd guess). It would have been an amazing upset.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: Kirby Still On Top | Posted: 8/31/2002 1:26:10 AM | Message Detail

more uselessness...
Mario - 25
Link - 12
Sephiroth - 10
Samus - 2

Someone with 130 pts in 8th place has Samus winning. The poor thing...
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"since when did "not" becoming a virgin become cool?" - mrduckbear3

From: Jjukil | Posted: 8/31/2002 1:27:14 AM | Message Detail

1) (v) Link (9:1) vs. Sephiroth (9:1) - 1.0

I find this stat especially interesting, considering the thrashing Sephiroth's getting right now. (He's already more than 2000 votes behind; judging by the only comebacks so far--Samus and Mario, from 1500 down or less--he's already lost.) I don't think ANYONE else saw THIS coming.

And by else, I don't mean me; I was as wrong as usual. =P I mean MMXCalibur. You called it, man...you called it. And after we all called you crazy, too.
Hopefully things will improve later today, and we can stand by our words. ;)
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http://members.aol.com/Jjukil
The Great Gamefaqs Character Battle: A Look Back

From: NeoElfboy | Posted: 8/31/2002 1:39:46 AM | Message Detail

I imagine Sephiroth will definitely close the gap, but he's definitely lost. My guess is a 55/45 split at the end of things.

Will Link take out Mario just as badly? I don't even want to try guessing any more.

~NeoElfboy
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"Sometimes I think your massive intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon themselves and transform into stat bonuses!" -RM
<VetSCCer>

From: Samberdog | Posted: 8/31/2002 1:58:28 AM | Message Detail

NeoElfboy:

Sorry I haven't responded to your rebuttal on campaigning about four pages back earlier. I just want to say that you make many excellent points. But I think that the whole interconnection of revenge and anti-votes is an important part of the game, and they will happen regardless. The polls are tainted, and will never give you a 100% accuracy to who the most popular character is. This may not produce a completely pure winner, but that's what happens when people vote.

If Cloud managed to come back from behind and beat Mario because an outside website helped him, I would be upset, but only because my character lost. People will campaign, and it's just as much a part of the game as anything else. If Cloud got more votes, he got more votes.

ncrdrg:

I'm glad you called the the Crono VS Mario match, I was gone for the last part and it sounded quite exciting! Another extremely close match. If CJayC hadn't have caught that cheater, it would have been Crono going on. Wow. I'm really shocked. Crono but up a spectacular show throughout the contest, and he almost made it to the finals. Crono was definitely the Cinderella story of this contest.

solarshadow:

More great work, as always. This contest has been the highlight of my Gamefaq's message board history, and your hard work and dedication has made it 800 times better.

Samberdog fanclub:

After this match, I'm now in the 97th percentile! Go me! I'll be getting another sixteen points as long as Link wins, and if Mario takes the final, I just might win a prize! Well, no I won't, but I'm very pleased with myself.

^_^

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I've been SHINE GOTTEN !!
Shine Count: 30

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/31/2002 3:23:40 AM | Message Detail

Okay, the website is now fully updated (I don't think I missed anything). Also, a new poll will be going up tomorrow, just as soon as I'm convinced that Sephiroth has lost. :)

I guess I'm behind on analysis posts though. Not sure I've got anything left in me tonight. Might wait until tomorrow for those (I should have a free day). Don't forget to check out Jjukil's cool site. =)
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: MMXcalibur | Posted: 8/31/2002 6:11:51 AM | Message Detail

Well....I called the Mario/Crono match for a lil bit...
till some jackass was cheating....
>_>....either way, I would have been happy if Mario or Crono moved on..both good characters...but I had Mario winning.
I know your sick of all this praise, solarshadow....but your doing a great job.
If your tired of praise, feel free to contact me for some depressing ridicule :D :p

Anyway, Link is taking it to Sephy now. And I am quite the happy camper.....

NOW!
Mario vs Link!!
Battle of Nintendo legends.
The opposite of Cloud vs Sephiroth.
Square fans will now know why most people spoke of a "no cloud vs sephiroth battle".

On the battle itself...barring NO cheating.
I'd have to give the nod to Link.
Mario is surviving by insanly close amounts.
Mario barely sneaked past Cloud.
Link is taking it to Sephiroth.
That fact alone tells me Link has won the GameFAQs 2002 Summer Contest.
Link wins 60-40, IMO.

Now, I had Link vs mario in my finals wit Link winning, did anyone else have that.
Two of my final four were knocked out. But I should gain a respectable score with a correct finals and winner prediction.
At least Link (my other fave character) will go on...poor Mega Man (#1 fave for me:D)
......
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(^>.<)-( ()============<D <(0_o'<) -KIRBY X-BUSTER!

From: NeoElfboy | Posted: 8/31/2002 6:16:17 AM | Message Detail

Nice going Samberdog!

My bracket stands in ruins, now. With Sephiroth's loss, my Summer 2002 Contest has ended. My final score is 91 points (48 out of 63 matches correctly predicted). Not bad, but it could've been a lot better for somebody tied for #30-something out of 16,000+ before the Tidus/Sonic match. I stand at the 73rd percentile now, but I figure the last two matches will drop me to around the 60th.

I'll be voting Mario tomorrow. For 62 days, I voted either to support my bracket, or screw over those of others. It just seems fitting that I finish by paying homage to the character that symbolises video games better than any other. But I can't say I'll be upset with either character taking the win. May the better Nintendo legend win.

~NeoElfboy
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"Sometimes I think your massive intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon themselves and transform into stat bonuses!" -RM
<VetSCCer>

From: ekjl | Posted: 8/31/2002 12:39:27 PM | Message Detail

Excellent work.
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Animal Crossing ~~ Town: Okinawa Name: Hiro

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/31/2002 2:30:56 PM | Message Detail

Okay, I've updated the website fully. Also, following ReaPeR xZ's suggestion, I've added which division each character is in to the odds page. I'm not sure if I particularly like the addition, so give me some feedback and tell me what you think.

Since Sephiroth is now down by almost 10,000 votes I'm officially counting him out. :) So, I've added a new poll to the stats site. It's a third place poll - vote for either Crono or Sephiroth (I even made a little graphic for it so that it feels official).

That's it for now. I'll be back in awhile to catch up on the analyses.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: King Morgoth | Posted: 8/31/2002 3:39:47 PM | Message Detail

Wow, the division is a nice addition on the odds page.....many people are complaining that Link had the easiest division of the bracket and...oh well, just read on....

Link's highest seeded opponent was #13 (Pac-Man), which is lower than any other division's second highest seed. BUT, and this is important, 7 of the Top 25 seeds are in the South Division.....more than in any of the three others....

I don't know if it makes sense, but it seems like people are once again complaining about nothing ;)
*brings in a huge "Go Link!" flag and sits down, waiting for the finals to begin*
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"Everything gold does not glitter
Not all those who wander are lost"

From: NeoElfboy | Posted: 8/31/2002 3:49:27 PM | Message Detail

Link definitely had the easiest division. Look at that chart.

How many of the top 17 come from the South? Two, and the only one there other than Link is down at #13. Two out of seventeen. That's pathetic.

It's true that after that, a lot of Southies show up... but characters ranked #20 and below just aren't going to be a threat to the likes of Link, Mario, or Cloud. The point is, of all the final four... Mario had to face Cloud. Sephiroth had to face Samus and MegaMan. Crono had Dante, Lara Croft, and Solid Snake.

Link had? Jill Valentine... I guess.

Not that it matters; Link could have faced anyone and he'd almost certainly still be here. But even big Link fans admit he had an easy journey to get to the Final Four.

~NeoElfboy
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"Sometimes I think your massive intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon themselves and transform into stat bonuses!" -RM
<VetSCCer>

From: King Morgoth | Posted: 8/31/2002 4:05:45 PM | Message Detail

Looks like I should have found another way to say what I said.
I didn't mean to say that he didn't have an easy journey going to the final four, he had the easiest route to the final four, and probably even to the finals (IMHO Cloud and Mario are both more dangerous than Sephiroth).

The thing is he deserves to be there as much as the three others and he would probably be there even if he had faced harder characters in the past rounds (well, who really knows for sure...). I'm just tired of fffanboys that keep writing on the boards here (and God knows how many they are) that Link doesn't deserve to be where he is now, and blah blah blah.

Maybe I'm taking this contest too seriously....or maybe I juste like Link a lot ;)
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"Everything gold does not glitter
Not all those who wander are lost"

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