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Summer 2002 Contest

FULL STATS - Summer 2002 Contest (Updated Nightly)

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From: Jjukil | Posted: 8/16/2002 3:41:25 AM | Message Detail

There you are, KSOT.
Did you go through the old stat topic regularly before it got deleted?
If you did, read my message on the last page....

Thanks, Jjukil

From: NeoElfboy | Posted: 8/16/2002 3:44:40 AM | Message Detail

Lara - 2

Well, I like that... maybe she has a chance at taking at Crono. Maybe my bracket isn't domed...

Yeah, right.

I too was surprised by the fact that Morrigan's victory was an upset. I can see more people picking Spyro, though, because he was more recognisable (due to TV ads, etc.). But I don't know anybody who likes Spyro (and I mean anybody) and I know quite a few Darkstalkers and MvC fans. I figured Morri would be much more liked, and I was correct. It seems most people picked by recognisability though. This seems to be a general trend, too... how else to explain Mario as the favourite?

Oh, and about that new poll... where's Tidus? I mean... FFX... number one game here... damn, it made sense when I put my bracket together. Oh well, just so you know, that single "other" vote is a vote for Tidus. The only other one on that list that I mispicked was Gordon, but that was one I wished I could change come voting day. Tidus' and Raziel's losses are the only ones which actually caught me off guard, though I have five more losses which I blame on stupidity.

~NeoElfboy
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"Sometimes I think your massive intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon themselves and transform into stat bonuses!" -RM
<VetSCCer>

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/16/2002 1:28:43 PM | Message Detail

Tidus didn't make the poll because the criteria were that nearly half the people had to predict the match incorrectly (maximum of about 10% difference between prediction percentages) and there had to be a fair amount of surprise/outrage on the boards. Sonic was predicted to win by 61% of the people, so not enough picked Tidus for his inclusion. Even though I also picked Tidus for the same reasons you did and the second "other" vote up there is mine for Tidus. :) I actually predicted all of the poll characters' losses correctly. The theme of my bracket seems to be that I get the hard ones right and the easy ones wrong: hard schmard, easy whoopsie. Abe and Strider didn't make the poll because, while a lot of people got that one wrong, nobody was particularly shocked, probably due to the coin flip nature of the battle. Also, I was trying to limit the number of poll choices so it doesn't wreak havoc with my webpage formatting. :)
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/16/2002 1:37:50 PM | Message Detail

I should point out that the website is now fully updated, including the glorious North Division prediction numbers. Finally I can get rid of those darn asterisks. :) Tripod was giving me a hard time last night which is why I opted to postpone the update. Hopefully that won't happen too often (although this is the second time...). I guess that's about it. Don't forget to vote in the poll. :)
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/16/2002 6:25:19 PM | Message Detail

Some quick Samus vs. Ryu analysis.

Wow, the number 4 seeds are really taking a beating at the hands of the number 5 seeds. First Dante, then Max, and now Ryu. Donkey Kong is the only number 4 seed to survive (maybe because he was facing a 12th seed, although Aya almost beat him).

Samus "Street Fighter Killer" Aran has moved on to the next round. She had a harder time against Ryu than she did against Ken, but there was never really any doubt about the outcome (although it was the 8th closest match). Against Ken she managed 65% of the vote, compared to 58% this time. I guess Ryu is only 7% more popular than Ken. :) Ryu's 42% of the vote was nearly half of the 81% he had against CATS.

This was the 10th most popular poll of the tournament, with nearly 68000 total votes cast. That's 10000 more than Ryu's first match and about 5000 more than Samus'. Interestingly enough, Samus' vote total ended up at around 40000 for both matches (41000 against Ken and 39000 against Ryu). Ryu's total dropped from 47000 against CATS down to less than 29000 against Samus.

80% of the contest entrants picked Samus to beat Ken, but only 58% thought she could take down Ryu (or CATS) as well. I guess that says something for Ryu's popularity, unless all those picks were for CATS (I doubt it). Still, the Street Fighter characters were no match for the metal-clad bounty hunter, and all of the fighting game fans' hopes now rest with Scorpion. Samus' next battle will be against Sonic, which could prove to be a good match. I would say Sonic is the favorite, but Samus has demonstrated more popularity than I'd expected, so she may give the blue hedgehog a run for his money.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: Ringworm | Posted: 8/16/2002 10:01:10 PM | Message Detail

I feel pretty stupid having Ken beat Samus now. I think Ryu is 14% more liked than Ken too (30% diff to 16% diff) - thats the way I'm looking at it anyway :-).
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Everyone that says "There's no such thing as a stupid question", has obviously never visited this board.

From: King Morgoth | Posted: 8/16/2002 10:28:40 PM | Message Detail

Don't feel stupid Ringworm, you're probably way higher than my 37 points anyways;)
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"Everything gold does not glitter
Not all those who wander are lost"

From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 8/16/2002 10:52:45 PM | Message Detail

Hm... well, after today's thrashing, I think we need to change our official stance. There is now an "elite six" in this tournament. Yeah, yeah, the oppenents have been weak, (certainly the weakest of both the first and second rounds) but regardless, MegaMan is a huge threat. I still think Sephy will beat, but it looks like the margin of victory will be razor-thin either way. And whichever one pulls it off, both will give Link a run for his money about equally. Very interesting...
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the-elite.net

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/16/2002 11:37:49 PM | Message Detail

Mega Man has certainly impressed me. However, I hope this is the last time he impresses me because I have Sephiroth going a long way. :)

You might even want to consider an "elite seven". Crono is starting to earn himself some respect. Although maybe the suggestions of him toppling Snake are a bit exaggerated.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: MasterCIoud | Posted: 8/16/2002 11:41:52 PM | Message Detail

So you don't think Crono will beat Snake? I highly doubt that. In fact, I think Aeris has a pretty good shot at downing Snake.
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GameFAQs Character Battles-42/48 - 55 pts.

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/16/2002 11:45:19 PM | Message Detail

Well, I've underestimated Crono to this point, so I wouldn't be surprised if I underestimate him again. But I gotta believe that Snake can make the final four.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/17/2002 12:07:12 AM | Message Detail

Tonight's Results:

6 - Mega Man (45:1) - 60914 / 91.84% (66328) - 14192 / 84.7%
3 - Serious Sam (300:1) - 5414 / 8.16% (66328)

Updated Lists:

Top 10 Biggest Blowouts (difference in brackets)

1) Mega Man 92.30% vs. Ms. Pac-Man 7.70% - (84.60%)
2) (ii) Mega Man 91.84% vs. Serious Sam 8.16% - (83.68%)
3) Sephiroth 87.71% vs. Gabe Logan 12.29% - (75.42%)
4) Link 84.31% vs. Little Mac 15.69% - (68.62%)
5) Sonic the Hedgehog 82.44% vs. Pitfall Harry 17.56% - (64.88%)
6) Ryu 80.79% vs. CATS 19.21% - (61.58%)
7) Knuckles the Echidna 80.56% vs. Akira Yuki 19.44% - (61.12%)
8) (ii) Pikachu 20.49% vs. Cloud Strife 79.51% - (59.02%)
9) Bomberman 78.11% vs. Kane 21.89% - (56.22%)
10) (ii) Aeris 76.93% vs. Tina Armstrong 23.07% - (53.86%)

Top 10 Biggest Vote Gaps (difference in brackets)

1) Mega Man 63039 vs. Ms. Pac-Man 5257 - (57782)
2) (ii) Mega Man 60914 vs. Serious Sam 5414 - (55500)
3) Sephiroth 61367 vs. Gabe Logan 8602 - (52765)
4) Link 59509 vs. Little Mac 11076 - (48433)
5) (ii) Pikachu 15445 vs. Cloud Strife 59926 - (44481)
6) Sonic the Hedgehog 53023 vs. Pitfall Harry 11292 - (41731)
7) Knuckles the Echidna 49964 vs. Akira Yuki 12057 - (37907)
8) (ii) Strider Hiryu 17270 vs. Link 53992 - (36722)
9) Cloud Strife 54643 vs. Fox McCloud 18599 - (36044)
10) Ryu 46869 vs. CATS 11145 - (35724)

Top 10 Biggest Vote Getters

1) Mega Man - 63039
2) Sephiroth - 61367
3) (ii) Mega Man - 60914
4) (ii) Cloud Strife - 59926
5) Link - 59509
6) Cloud Strife - 54643
7) (ii) Link - 53992
8) Sonic the Hedgehog - 53023
9) (ii) Aeris - 50055
10) Knuckles the Echidna - 49964

Top 10 Lowest Vote Getters

1) Ms. Pac-Man - 5257
2) (ii) Serious Sam - 5414
3) Gabe Logan - 8602
4) Little Mac - 11076
5) CATS - 11145
6) Pitfall Harry - 11292
7) Kane - 11476
8) Akira Yuki - 12057
9) Dirk the Daring - 12109
10) Servbot - 13777

Top 10 Easiest Matches to Predict (based on percentage of contest entrants choosing the winner)

1) Link 96.4% vs. Little Mac 3.6%
2) Mario 95.9% vs. Servbot 4.1%
3) Sonic the Hedgehog 95.6% vs. Pitfall Harry 4.4%
4) Donkey Kong 94.2% vs. Bub 5.8%
5) Mega Man 94.1% vs. Ms. Pac-Man 5.9%
6) Max Payne 91.9% vs. Dirk the Daring 8.1%
7) Sephiroth 90.2% vs. Gabe Logan 9.8%
8) Lara Croft 88.4% vs. Chop Chop Master Onion 11.6%
9) Ryu 87.0% vs. CATS 13.0%
10) (ii) Mega Man 84.7% vs. Serious Sam

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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: Samberdog | Posted: 8/17/2002 12:14:55 AM | Message Detail

Wow. A lot of lists needed updating after yesterday. More great work, solar.

I think the most interesting thing about yesterday's match was how many people predicted correctly that Megaman would win. The highest of any 2nd round matches. Lots more votes too... I don't think I'll all that surprised anymore if Sephiroth loses next round. This is getting interesting...
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Muse of the Day: How come "thaw" and "unthaw" mean the same thing?

From: Siege1331 | Posted: 8/17/2002 12:19:59 AM | Message Detail

Nice job solar. These are really nice.
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"Note to self, no matter how bad life gets, remember that there is always beer." -Norm McDonald
SHINE GET!

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/17/2002 12:33:17 AM | Message Detail

I don't think any of those updates come as a surprise to anyone. :) Except maybe that a second round match made it onto the easiest to predict list. We've also got our first case of a second round character making it onto the lowest vote getters list. Not an enviable position for Sam to be in. He just barely put up a better fight than Ms. Pac-Man. Ouch.

Well, Tripod's being disagreeable again, and I can't even log in to update the website. So that will be postponed until tomorrow for the second day in a row, unless it suddenly starts cooperating in the next few minutes.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: Jjukil | Posted: 8/17/2002 12:48:56 AM | Message Detail

A second round match making the easiest to predict list is a little surprising, yeah. O_o

Frankly, though, I'm more surprised with Serious Sam's horrible vote total. I mean, he DID make it to the second round. Seeing him rank second on the lowest-tally list while there is...kind of funny, actually. <g>

Thanks, Jjukil

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/17/2002 2:13:46 AM | Message Detail

Heheh, poor Sam. I almost feel sorry for him. He got a generous seed and an easy first round opponent in Mr. Driller, which basically gave him a free pass to the second round where he didn't deserve to be. Probably the worst case of seeding in the tournament, next to Sephiroth as a 7th seed of course. :)

Tripod let me in for a bit, so the stats and combined top 10 lists are updated. The rest will be updated tomorrow.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: KSOT | Posted: 8/17/2002 10:33:11 AM | Message Detail

Mega Man is starting to arouse my curiosity...

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/17/2002 12:11:08 PM | Message Detail

What the heck? Do you have an alternate account now, KSOT? Maybe it's an impostor! :)

Anyway, the website is fully updated now. I'm still taking suggestions for new poll ideas, so don't be afraid to let fly with those.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/17/2002 7:11:24 PM | Message Detail

Some quick Mega Man vs. Serious Sam analysis.

Warning: extreme statements of the obvious appear below.

Uh, Mega Man killed Sam. It was messy, it was ugly. Please, cover the children's eyes.

Where do I begin? Mega Man crushed Sam into pulp, squished him like a bug, ground him into dust, blasted him to smithereens, etc! This match ranks as the second biggest blowout of the tournament (next to Mega Man over Ms. Pac-Man) and by far the biggest blowout of the second round. Mega Man received 91.84% of the vote, just below the 92.30% he took against Ms. Pac-Man. The next closest blowout was Sephiroth over Gabe with an 88/12 split, and the closest second round match is Cloud over Pikachu at 80/20. Quite a thrashing. Sam did not live up to his 3rd seed placement, and proved that he probably shouldn't have made it to the second round (blame Mr. Driller for not taking him out in the first). Sam's meagre 8% of the vote share was over 50% lower than the 59% he earned last round. It was a slaughter. Do I need to go on?

Mega Man further proved his popularity (the extent of which continues to surprise some), becoming only the third character to break the 60000 vote mark, the previous two being Sephiroth and... Mega Man. :) That's right, the Blue Bomber is currently the only two time member of the 60000 vote club. Serious Sam on the other hand brought in a pathetic 5414 votes, which just barely beat out Ms. Pac-Man's 5257 showing (not an accomplishment to be proud of). The vote gap for this match was exactly 55500 votes, which is actually more votes than the entire total of 9 of the previous matches. Yes, it's just that silly.

This one wasn't even close for a moment. In fact, Mega Man got more votes in the first hour than Sam got for the entire day. Absolutely brutal. Someone should have called off the fight.

I'm going to leave some of the Mega Man discussion for tomorrow when I can do some more comparisons against Sephiroth. But I think it's worth noting that this wasn't even one of the most popular matches (12th on the list with 66000 total votes) and yet Mega Man still managed to break the 60000 vote barrier. And his first match was similar (only slightly more popular at 68000 total votes, 8th on the list). He's just plain dominating. Of course, he has had arguably the easiest first and second round opponents, but I think a lot of us didn't expect him to do quite so well regardless. We may have underestimated his popularity to some degree.

Considering the size of the blowout, it's perhaps surprising that only 84.7% of the contest entrants predicted this one correctly. 94.1% had Mega Man winning the first round, but over 10% of those thought he would lose to Sam or Mr. Driller? I suppose that's not too bad, but when looking at the outcome it's hard to believe that anyone could have missed it. :)

I don't think I need to tell anyone who Mega Man's third round opponent will be. This clash is already being hyped up considerably. And with good reason. His next match against Sephiroth is set to be the highlight of the third round. Most would have put their money on Sephiroth at the beginning of the tournament, but given Mega Man's impressive showings thus far that confidence is beginning to waver. Does Mega Man have what it takes to upset the mighty Sephiroth? Could be. But more on that tomorrow.

P.S. Sam did not make the most impressive losers list. Just so you know.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: King Morgoth | Posted: 8/17/2002 10:03:06 PM | Message Detail

Nice in-depth analysis (!!!) Solar! ;)
But did you really need to be so...cruel in your statements (even though you have only described the massacre)? I mean, it really was ugly but I pity that poor Sam, don't you? ;)
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"Everything gold does not glitter
Not all those who wander are lost"

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/17/2002 10:27:05 PM | Message Detail

Just called it like I saw it. :) I do feel a bit sorry for Sam, but the boy didn't even put up a fight. It's like he was out drinking the night before or something. There's no excuse for such poor discipline. ;)
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com
Stats Discussion: http://s1.cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=3916637

From: King Morgoth | Posted: 8/17/2002 11:50:00 PM | Message Detail

This might be interisting Solar, I added the First and Second Round total of votes of all the remaining competitors and here it is :

Total Number of Votes received by Third Round Competitors :
Mega Man - 123953
Sephiroth - 115323
Cloud - 114569
Link - 113501
Crono - 93222
Aeris - 88245
Snake - 88232
Sonic - 86625
Mario - 83884
Scorpion - 81498
Lara - 81045
Samus - 80150
Jill - 75367
Pac-Man - 73757
Alucard - 69380
Donkey Kong - 64400

Just look how REALLY close Snake and Aeris are...this might be a close fight...
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"Everything gold does not glitter
Not all those who wander are lost"

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/17/2002 11:56:35 PM | Message Detail

Tonight's Results:

7 - Sephiroth (9:1) - 53956 / 81.52% (66191) - 12911 / 77.0%
2 - Crash Bandicoot (250:1) - 12235 / 18.48% (66191)

Updated Lists:

Top 10 Biggest Blowouts (difference in brackets)

1) Mega Man 92.30% vs. Ms. Pac-Man 7.70% - (84.60%)
2) (ii) Mega Man 91.84% vs. Serious Sam 8.16% - (83.68%)
3) Sephiroth 87.71% vs. Gabe Logan 12.29% - (75.42%)
4) Link 84.31% vs. Little Mac 15.69% - (68.62%)
5) Sonic the Hedgehog 82.44% vs. Pitfall Harry 17.56% - (64.88%)
6) (ii) Sephiroth 81.52% vs. Crash Bandicoot 18.48% - (63.04%)
7) Ryu 80.79% vs. CATS 19.21% - (61.58%)
8) Knuckles the Echidna 80.56% vs. Akira Yuki 19.44% - (61.12%)
9) (ii) Pikachu 20.49% vs. Cloud Strife 79.51% - (59.02%)
10) Bomberman 78.11% vs. Kane 21.89% - (56.22%)

Top 10 Biggest Vote Gaps (difference in brackets)

1) Mega Man 63039 vs. Ms. Pac-Man 5257 - (57782)
2) (ii) Mega Man 60914 vs. Serious Sam 5414 - (55500)
3) Sephiroth 61367 vs. Gabe Logan 8602 - (52765)
4) Link 59509 vs. Little Mac 11076 - (48433)
5) (ii) Pikachu 15445 vs. Cloud Strife 59926 - (44481)
6) Sonic the Hedgehog 53023 vs. Pitfall Harry 11292 - (41731)
7) (ii) Sephiroth 53956 vs. Crash Bandicoot 12235 - (41721)
8) Knuckles the Echidna 49964 vs. Akira Yuki 12057 - (37907)
9) (ii) Strider Hiryu 17270 vs. Link 53992 - (36722)
10) Cloud Strife 54643 vs. Fox McCloud 18599 - (36044)

Top 10 Biggest Vote Getters

1) Mega Man - 63039
2) Sephiroth - 61367
3) (ii) Mega Man - 60914
4) (ii) Cloud Strife - 59926
5) Link - 59509
6) Cloud Strife - 54643
7) (ii) Link - 53992
8) (ii) Sephiroth - 53956
9) Sonic the Hedgehog - 53023
10) (ii) Aeris - 50055

Top 10 Lowest Vote Getters

1) Ms. Pac-Man - 5257
2) (ii) Serious Sam - 5414
3) Gabe Logan - 8602
4) Little Mac - 11076
5) CATS - 11145
6) Pitfall Harry - 11292
7) Kane - 11476
8) Akira Yuki - 12057
9) Dirk the Daring - 12109
10) (ii) Crash Bandicoot - 12235

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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/18/2002 1:13:12 AM | Message Detail

Heh, you beat me to calculating those numbers, King Morgoth. But that's cool, because it saves me some effort. :) I was thinking of maybe putting combined stats like that on the website but I'm not sure where they'd go exactly or how many categories I want, so I'm leaving them off for now. But they are fun to look at. I like how Mega Man has almost twice as many votes as DK. Impressive. Oh, are you still interested in reformatting the second round full lists? They're complete now so you can have at them if you want.

Website report: Everything's been updated. Including the Contest Averages and all that other fun stuff. Enjoy. (Maybe I should post the second round averages here as well? Might be a good idea.)
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/18/2002 1:35:23 AM | Message Detail

Okay, here you go. These are the second round averages only. The first round averages can of course be found on the website: https://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/avg.html

-CONTEST AVERAGES-

Average Number of Votes Received By The Winning Character

North Division - 43009 / 65.5%
East Division - 42909 / 65.9%
South Division - 40900 / 65.9%
West Division - 46941 / 72.9%
Second Round Avg - 43440 / 67.6%

Average Number of Votes Received By The Losing Character

North Division - 22613 / 34.5%
East Division - 22162 / 34.1%
South Division - 21185 / 34.1%
West Division - 17449 / 27.1%
Second Round Avg - 20852 / 32.4%

Average Number of Total Votes Per Match

North Division - 65622
East Division - 65071
South Division - 62084
West Division - 64390
Second Round Avg - 64292

Average Win Margin

North Division - 20396 / 31.1%
East Division - 20748 / 31.9%
South Division - 19715 / 31.8%
West Division - 29492 / 45.8%
Second Round Avg - 22588 / 35.2%

Average Number of Contest Entrants Predicting Each Match Correctly (out of 16764 total entrants)

North Division - 10460 / 62.4%
East Division - 10711 / 63.9%
South Division - 8860 / 52.9%
West Division - 11754 / 70.1%
Second Round Avg - 10446 / 62.3%

Average Number of Points Earned by Contest Entrants (out of 8 possible points per division, 32 per round)

North Division - 4.99
East Division - 5.11
South Division - 4.23
West Division - 5.61
Second Round - 19.94

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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: King Morgoth | Posted: 8/18/2002 2:30:20 AM | Message Detail

I don't want ot be picky but there's a little error in your "Second Round Top 5 Lists"....
I think that there's a little problem with the stats of the 9th position in your "Top 5 Smallest Vote Gaps" table ;)

http://www.geocities.com/kingmorgoth/stats2.txt
Took me 40 minutes, thought it would take waaaaay longer...oh well, I ain't gonna complain about that ;)
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"Everything gold does not glitter
Not all those who wander are lost"

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/18/2002 2:44:26 AM | Message Detail

LOL. Crap, that's the second time that's happened. At least nobody caught it the first time. :) Alright, it's fixed now.

Excellent job on the formatting again, as usual. Thanks a lot, it looks great.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/18/2002 2:18:40 PM | Message Detail

Some quick Sephiroth vs. Crash analysis.

Well, it was another blowout, as expected. Not nearly as absolute as Mega Man's destruction of Serious Sam, but it does rank as the 2nd biggest blowout of the second round (6th overall).

Crash put up enough of a fight to prevent Sephiroth's second round totals from reaching quite as high as his first round totals (and Mega Man's first and second round totals). The two of them occupy the top 3 positions on the Top 10 Biggest Blowouts, Top 10 Biggest Vote Gaps, and Top 10 Biggest Vote Getters, but Sephiroth's second round totals rank 6th, 7th, and 8th on those lists. Which would seem to be a pretty good indication of Crash's difficulty as an opponent.

Sephiroth gained a little less than 82% of the vote, down from his 88% against Gabe Logan. But his vote total plummeted by nearly 7000, down to 54000 from the previous 61000+. That leaves Mega Man as the only two time member of the 60000 vote club. Crash saw his percentage go from a weak 63% against Ulala down to a worthless 18% against Sephiroth. And his vote total dropped by 2/3 from 36000 down to 12000. Which just managed to get him a spot on the Top 10 Lowest Vote Getters list (only the 2nd second round character to do so). Not an inspiring performance, but the competition was admittedly quite steep.

This poll was moderately popular at 66000 total votes cast, but that's considerably lower than the almost 70000 votes in Sephiroth's first match. Which is a bit of a surprise. You'd think Crash would be a more exciting opponent than Gabe, even if Crash's first match only got the attention of 57000 voters. Perhaps we should blame the anti-climactic end to the second round for the lack of interest?

77% of the contest entrants picked Sephiroth to win this match, which is 13% fewer than chose him to win the first round. That probably says more for Crash's popularity than the meagre vote count he managed (unless most of those predictions were for the busty Ulala).

Well, next up for Sephiroth is an epic battle against Mega Man. Along with Link and Cloud these 2 pretty much dominate the most impressive lists. So this will definitely be a heavyweight bout. The odds are in Sephiroth's favor and he probably has the edge, but Mega Man has surprised us with his popularity thus far and could offer up another surprise in the third round. By combining vote totals we can see that Mega Man and Sephiroth are the two most popular characters so far (votewise). Mega Man has received a staggering 123953 votes, and Sephiroth is just behind with a whopping 115323 (as a bit of comparison, Alucard and Donkey Kong have combined totals of 69380 and 64400 votes respectively). It's almost a shame that one of these two characters will have to fall in the third round, but at least it gives the potential for one of the first truly epic battles.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: ReaPeR xZ | Posted: 8/18/2002 5:01:23 PM | Message Detail

solarshadow - I think it would be cool to see what division each character was placed in on The Odds and The Seeding pages on your website. Just a suggestion.
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If I drench myself in others blood, am I sick?
If I bathe myself in others blood, am I sick?

From: javajim | Posted: 8/18/2002 8:18:12 PM | Message Detail

Nice work Solarshadow, very impressive what you've put together so far. My only suggestion would be to add pictures by the stats, especially for the full results. Basically, just copy the pics that CJayc used in the polls and insert them. I think it would make it just a little more interesting than just staring at a page full of numbers. Again, great work, can't wait to see your analysis up on your website also.

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/18/2002 9:51:37 PM | Message Detail

ReaPeR xZ: Good suggestion. The seeding is divided by division, but I'll look into doing something with the odds as well (when I get a chance).

javajim: Pictures could be fun. I'd have to find a way to work them into my formatting though. Also, I'm not sure if they'd be so large in file size that I'd have to worry about my bandwidth limit. But I'll play around a bit and see if I can get anything to work. I was thinking of making a bracket only out of the contest pics, but I'm not sure if it's worth the effort.

Thanks for the suggestions. I'll see what I can do.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: Drakoi | Posted: 8/18/2002 10:05:40 PM | Message Detail

wow, the south div was so hard to pick! Other than Link and Lara. But if I had just known who snake was I'd be 8 fewer in the red. Cool stuff Solar.
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Current Summer Contest Score, 57g-15r

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/18/2002 11:04:12 PM | Message Detail

-SECOND ROUND WRAP UP-

Well, I'd say this round was a little more eventful than the first, but we're only really just getting warmed up.

The second round started with a ho hum victory by Mario over Morrigan. It looked like an inauspicious start, but things were about to get much better. Donkey Kong and Aya Brea then treated us to the closest match of the contest. The lead actually changed hands numerous times over the course of the morning before DK built up a comfortable margin. Aya managed a late charge to make things interesting, but it just wasn't enough and DK took the match by a hair.

The very next match featured Alucard and Duke and turned out to be one of the most notable of the round. Alucard took the match and surprised a lot of people, with only 28.8% of the contest entrants predicting him to move on to the third round. That still stands as the hardest match to predict. Another surprise came when Scorpion upset the favored Max Payne. It is almost certain that more people picked Max in their brackets, but Scorpion came through convincingly and took the win, much to the delight of only 33.6% of the entrants.

This round also featured a couple of hyped battles that didn't live up to their billing. Remember when I said Crono vs. Dante could be a close and exciting match due to the similarity of their odds and previous vote totals? Forget I ever said anything. :) Crono secured two-thirds of the vote and took the win easily. Another nothing match turned out to be the Pikachu vs. Cloud affair. Some people were convinced Pikachu could pose a threat to Cloud, but Cloud proved them wrong by smoking the little yellow rat 80% to 20%.

In the "closer than they should've been" category we have Knuckles vs. Snake. Snake was expected to take this one in a walk but ended up with only 60% of the vote. Is this a hint that Snake doesn't have what it takes to make it to the final rounds? Only time will tell. Mario vs. Morrigan also falls into this category, with Mario barely managing two-thirds of the vote against a relatively weak opponent. The mustachioed plumber has not been living up to his #1 odds ranking.

On the blowout side we had Sephiroth's dismantling of the 2nd-seeded Crash, and Mega Man's utter annihilation of Serious Sam. Sephiroth's 82% of the vote against Crash was the only blowout in the 80% range, but it pales considerably to the 92% achieved by Mega Man. It was a slaughter. This was also the easiest match to predict at 84.7%, with Mario and Link's wins being the only others to break 80%.

As far as averages go, there wasn't a lot of change in the vote percentages between the first and second rounds. The winning characters still got close to 70% and the losing characters around 30%. The polls did get more popular though, with the averages number of total votes up by 4000 per match. Inevitably, the outcomes got harder to predict. Prediction percentage dropped by 12% down to an average of 62.3%. The South Division became the toughest to predict by far, with an average of 52.9% of the entrants picking those winners correctly (10% lower than any of the other divisions). The average number of points earned by contest entrants for this round was down to 19.94. So, in order to be in the majority now you need to have at least 43.68 points at the end of the round.

Well, it was certainly an eventful second round and the third round should be even more interesting. Stay tuned for a third round preview shortly.

Bonus stat: The total number of votes cast this round was 1,028,667, for a grand total of 2,904,502 (nearly 3 million!) votes so far this contest. Wow.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/18/2002 11:37:16 PM | Message Detail

Here's a little Third Round preview for you. I've included the characters with their seeding, the odds, and the percentage of contest entrants that chose them to win their previous match. It's not much, but it might give us some indication of which characters are likely to win and how many people might get it right.

1 - Mario (6:1) - 81.7%
4 - Donkey Kong (140:1) - 69.6%

6 - Alucard (70:1) - 28.8%
2 - Cloud Strife (14:1) - 69.5%

1 - Lara Croft (50:1) - 74.13%
5 - Crono (33:1) - 51.8%

11 - Aeris (90:1) - 53.5%
2 - Solid Snake (8:1) - 76.2%

1 - Pac-Man (60:1) - 64.8%
5 - Scorpion (150:1) - 33.6%

3 - Jill Valentine (180:1) - 32.5%
2 - Link (9:1) - 80.5%

1 - Sonic the Hedgehog (45:1) - 60.8%
5 - Samus Aran (36:1) - 58.0%

6 - Mega Man (45:1) - 84.7%
7 - Sephiroth (9:1) - 77.0%

-THIRD ROUND PREVIEW ANALYSIS-

The most exciting match of this round looks to be Mega Man vs. Sephiroth, and I don't think people will argue with me this time. ;) Their votes totals have been the highest of the contest, proving that each has a tremendous amount of support. It truly is a clash of the titans and only one will survive. Sephiroth clearly has the better odds, so I think most people will expect him to win. But Mega Man has pulled off some surprisingly impressive victories and may have a couple tricks left up his sleeve. This epic battle should serve as the perfect climax to the round.

Other close matches to keep your eye on could include Pac-Man vs. Scorpion, Aeris vs. Snake, and Sonic vs. Samus. Samus actually has better odds than Sonic, but it's hard to argue that Sonic isn't more well known. Tough one to call. Snake really ought to win his match, but his weak victory against Knuckles and the sizeable following for Aeris could cause him some problems. It would definitely be a surprise upset, but it's dangerous to underestimate the power of FF7. The Pac-Man and Scorpion match is a bit of a toss up. The odds give this one easily to Pac-Man, but Scorpion has been impressive in his previous victories and surprised a lot of people (two-thirds of the entrants didn't think he'd make it even this far). This may be one to watch.

And the round wouldn't be complete without a couple of blowouts. Look for Link to make short work of Jill, and Cloud to have his way with Alucard. They won't set any records, but the outcomes should never be in doubt. Oh, and I expect that Mario will destory DK with about 80% of the vote. ;)
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/19/2002 12:51:36 AM | Message Detail

Tonight's Results:

1 - Mario (6:1) - 52333 / 81.98% (63840) - 12158 / 72.5%
4 - Donkey Kong (140:1) - 11507 / 18.02% (63840)

Updated Lists:

Top 10 Biggest Blowouts (difference in brackets)

1) Mega Man 92.30% vs. Ms. Pac-Man 7.70% - (84.60%)
2) (ii) Mega Man 91.84% vs. Serious Sam 8.16% - (83.68%)
3) Sephiroth 87.71% vs. Gabe Logan 12.29% - (75.42%)
4) Link 84.31% vs. Little Mac 15.69% - (68.62%)
5) Sonic the Hedgehog 82.44% vs. Pitfall Harry 17.56% - (64.88%)
6) (iii) Mario 81.98% vs. Donkey Kong 18.02% - (63.96%)
7) (ii) Sephiroth 81.52% vs. Crash Bandicoot 18.48% - (63.04%)
8) Ryu 80.79% vs. CATS 19.21% - (61.58%)
9) Knuckles the Echidna 80.56% vs. Akira Yuki 19.44% - (61.12%)
10) (ii) Pikachu 20.49% vs. Cloud Strife 79.51% - (59.02%)

Top 10 Biggest Vote Gaps (difference in brackets)

1) Mega Man 63039 vs. Ms. Pac-Man 5257 - (57782)
2) (ii) Mega Man 60914 vs. Serious Sam 5414 - (55500)
3) Sephiroth 61367 vs. Gabe Logan 8602 - (52765)
4) Link 59509 vs. Little Mac 11076 - (48433)
5) (ii) Pikachu 15445 vs. Cloud Strife 59926 - (44481)
6) Sonic the Hedgehog 53023 vs. Pitfall Harry 11292 - (41731)
7) (ii) Sephiroth 53956 vs. Crash Bandicoot 12235 - (41721)
8) (iii) Mario 52333 vs. Donkey Kong 11507 - (40826)
9) Knuckles the Echidna 49964 vs. Akira Yuki 12057 - (37907)
10) (ii) Strider Hiryu 17270 vs. Link 53992 - (36722)

Top 10 Biggest Vote Getters

1) Mega Man - 63039
2) Sephiroth - 61367
3) (ii) Mega Man - 60914
4) (ii) Cloud Strife - 59926
5) Link - 59509
6) Cloud Strife - 54643
7) (ii) Link - 53992
8) (ii) Sephiroth - 53956
9) Sonic the Hedgehog - 53023
10) (iii) Mario 52333

Top 10 Lowest Vote Getters

1) Ms. Pac-Man - 5257
2) (ii) Serious Sam - 5414
3) Gabe Logan - 8602
4) Little Mac - 11076
5) CATS - 11145
6) Pitfall Harry - 11292
7) Kane - 11476
8) (iii) Donkey Kong 11507
9) Akira Yuki - 12057
10) Dirk the Daring - 12109

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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/19/2002 1:03:47 AM | Message Detail

Sorry about being a bit late with those. It wouldn't post for some reason. Anyway, the website's mostly updated too. I still need to add a section or two and update some of the menus. That'll happen tomorrow. And I might change how and when certain parts are updated, because it's taking more time to do than I'd like. We'll see.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: Jjukil | Posted: 8/19/2002 1:06:25 AM | Message Detail

Whew! Well, that was a fun read. =) Nice to see Mario making his way onto some of those top ten lists, for once. Of course, it seems pretty obvious why; I'm surprised more people didn't see it coming.

Also--I really don't think Link vs. Jill will be a blowout. Jill's considerable following has been overshadowed a bit by her opponents, both lovable, highly recognizable mascots in the gaming world. I'm sure Link will win, but I imagine Jill will put up more of a fight than, say, Strider.
(Oh, and about your Mario/DK "prediction".... =P)

Entertaining stuff, Solar. Sure glad you're keeping this up--what with the lack of fanfics, it's sort of saving the contest for me.

Thanks, Jjukil

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/19/2002 2:04:32 AM | Message Detail

I'm very pleased to hear you're enjoying it, Jjukil. Good to know at least someone is reading all that. :) I wish I could find the previous matches' analyses, but nobody's contacted me about it. So, a reminder: if you visited the old stats topic frequently you may still have some of the pages in your cache. Try setting your browser to "Work Offline" and following this link: http://s1.cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=3747804&page=1
If that doesn't work try changing the "s1" to "s2" or changing "&page=1" to "&page=2" (or 3, 4, etc). If you find any of the pages copy and paste them and email them to: solarshadow@hotmail.com
I'd sure like to see them, and so would some others.

Back to your other comments, I was probably remiss in suggesting those matches would be "blowouts". I wanted to use that word but I really shouldn't have. I meant them as very minor blowouts, more like "sure things". :) I agree that Jill won't get blownout, but I don't have any doubt that Link will take it. That's more or less what I was trying to express.

It was nice to see Mario finally putting up some impressive numbers, but that came as a bit of a surprise to me. I thought DK would do a little better than that. Of course, I had to think long and hard about that Mario/DK prediction. I was leaning more towards the 70% range, but then I had a sudden epiphany and knew that 80% was far more accurate. ;)
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: ardonite | Posted: 8/19/2002 5:17:30 AM | Message Detail

gj, thought I'd point out the distribution of scores of entries has two relative maxima now. guess it wasn't a random distribution of entries. any idea why 47 is so special that more people chose it?/ what would be the current score if you had followed the seeding precisely -- i'm lazy?

also the mario vs dk blowout could be accounted to the fact that there are people who are merely voting against nintendo characters, and they had no choice in this match :)

From: dimeat | Posted: 8/19/2002 11:26:04 AM | Message Detail

Heh, good read, I visit your site everyday to look at howmany people moved up. I keep on moving up except..if Samus doesn't beat Sonic, I think I'm done for :(
Made Tidus beat Sonic...don't know why...

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/19/2002 2:51:06 PM | Message Detail

The scoring if you'd followed the seeding precisely would look a little something like this:

1 Mario - 1pt - 2pts - 4pts
2 Cloud - 1pt - 2pts - 4pts
3 Duke - 1pt - 0pts
4 DK - 1pt - 2pts
5 Terry - 0pts
6 Alucard - 1pt
7 Pikachu - 1pt
8 Spyro - 0pts

1 Lara - 1pt - 2pts
2 Snake - 1pt - 2pts
3 Gordon - 0pts - 0pts
4 Dante - 1pt - 0pts
5 Crono - 1pt
6 Kasumi - 0pts
7 Knuckles - 1pt
8 Ryo Hazuki - 1pt

1 Pac-Man - 1pt - 2pts
2 Link - 1pt - 2pts
3 Jill - 1pt - 2pts
4 Max - 1pt - 0pts
5 Scorpion - 1pt
6 Bomberman - 1pt
7 Strider - 1pt
8 Abe - 0pts

1 Sonic - 1pt - 2pts
2 Crash - 1pt - 0pts
3 Sam - 1pt - 0pts
4 Ryu - 1pt - 0pts
5 Samus Aran - 1pt
6 Mega Man - 1pt
7 Sephiroth - 1pt
8 Tidus - 1pt

First Round - 27pts
Second Round - 20pts

So, 47 points at the end of the second round. And since you only needed 44 points to be in the majority, that's not too bad for not having to think about it. :) With Mario's win yesterday you'd be up to 51. And it's interesting to note that more people have a score of 51 than any other number. Coincidence? You're not going to win any prizes with a score like that but you'd still be doing better than at least half the entrants.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/19/2002 3:27:05 PM | Message Detail

The website's been updated with the rest of last night's stats. And here's what the new updating schedule looks like:

Nightly: Stats, Combined Top 10 Lists
Following Day: Full Lists, Odds, Seeding, Contest Upsets
End of Round: current round's Top Lists, Contest Averages

That should make things a little bit easier on me. Of course, things may change a bit in the coming rounds when the matches become fewer and certain sections become easier to update. But there's really no point in updating something like the Top 3 Lists for this round when there's only been 1 match so far.

I've also calculated the odds ratios for the third rounds matches now. They're on the website in the appropriate places of course, but they're also right here:

Mario (6:1) vs. Donkey Kong (140:1) - 23.3
Jill Valentine (180:1) vs. Link (9:1) - 20.0
Aeris (90:1) vs. Solid Snake (8:1) - 11.3
Alucard (70:1) vs. Cloud Strife (14:1) - 5.0
Mega Man (45:1) vs. Sephiroth (9:1) - 5.0
Pac-Man (60:1) vs. Scorpion (150:1) - 2.5
Lara Croft (50:1) vs. Crono (33:1) - 1.5
Sonic the Hedgehog (45:1) vs. Samus Aran (36:1) - 1.3

Looks like the Mario/DK battle really was a bit of a mis-match. Link over Jill appears to be a safe bet as well. And Aeris vs. Snake doesn't look as close as some people have suggested it could be. But I do think the odds mean less and less the deeper into the tournament we get, so I wouldn't put too much stock in them. Sonic/Samus and Pac-Man/Scorpion look to be close ones (unsurprisingly). As well as Lara vs. Crono, which might come as a bit of a surprise. Think this one will be that close? Could be interesting.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/19/2002 10:37:44 PM | Message Detail

Some brief Mario vs. DK analysis.

Not a lot to say here. We all assumed the battle of the Nintendo icons would be taken easily by Mario, so it was no real surprise. The extent of the margin of victory may have been a little more unexpected, but it's hardly worth getting excited about.

It was nice to finally see Mario putting up some decent numbers though. Despite previous battles against Servbot and Morrigan, he wasn't able to achieve anything near the impressive levels of the other elite. But this trouncing of DK ranks as the 6th biggest blowout with the 8th largest vote gap. It also marks Mario's first appearance on the Top 10 Biggest Vote Getters list and finally gives him that coveted membership in the 50000 votes club. Is Mario picking up some steam? He'll certainly need to if he hopes to take down Cloud next round.

As for Donkey Kong, this match marks the first time he hasn't made the Top 10 Least Impressive Winners list. Instead, the big ape finds himself 8th on the Top 10 Lowest Vote Getters list. Not an improvement. Well, for what it's worth, he had a good (if uninspiring) run, but this was as far as he could expect to go.

Mario saw his highest percentage of votes (by over 10%) and highest vote count (by over 5000) in this match, even though it received around 3000 fewer total votes than his bout against Morrigan. DK's vote total spiralled down by 20000 votes to the miserable 11000 range.

The prediction percentage for Mario remained high at 72.5%, down only about 10% from his previous match. That could possibly remain the highest for the entire third round. Link and maybe Snake would have a chance at being predicted correctly by more people if their matches go as planned though, so keep an eye on them. The other 2 front runners based on the second round numbers are Mega Man and Sephiroth, but seeing as they're pitted against each other, expect those prediction percentages to take a drastic hit this round.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: Ringworm | Posted: 8/19/2002 11:51:57 PM | Message Detail

I just checked my cache, I think I only have one page (Page 5, 50 per page), I'll send it to you soon, I'll look for the rest first though.

Nice work so far, looks like I have my first loss for this division coming up today too (I knew at the time picking Lara over Crono was a stupid thing to do, but couldn't be bothered changing it :( )
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Everyone that says "There's no such thing as a stupid question", has obviously never visited this board.

From: Ringworm | Posted: 8/19/2002 11:58:09 PM | Message Detail

I have Page 1 too. I don't have pages 2-4 though. Checked both servers, but no.
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Everyone that says "There's no such thing as a stupid question", has obviously never visited this board.

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/20/2002 12:15:07 AM | Message Detail

Tonight's Results:

6 - Alucard (70:1) - 22578 / 30.36% (74365)
2 - Cloud Strife (14:1) - 51787 / 69.64% (74365) - 8973 / 53.5%

Updated Lists:

Top 10 Most Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) (ii) Pikachu vs. Cloud Strife - 75371
2) (iii) Alucard vs. Cloud Strife - 74365
3) Cloud Strife vs. Fox McCloud - 73242
4) Solid Snake vs. Squall Leonhart - 71676
5) (ii) Strider Hiryu vs. Link - 71262
6) Link vs. Little Mac - 70585
7) Jill Valentine vs. Kirby - 70376
8) Sephiroth vs. Gabe Logan - 69969
9) Mega Man vs. Ms. Pac-Man - 68296
10) (ii) Knuckles the Echidna vs. Solid Snake - 68083

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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: Ringworm | Posted: 8/20/2002 12:18:44 AM | Message Detail

Wow, Cloud is in the three highest vote tallys, guess that says something about the popularity of FF7. Pity I chose Snake to beat him in the semis.

Did you get my email BTW?
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Everyone that says "There's no such thing as a stupid question", has obviously never visited this board.

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/20/2002 12:19:03 AM | Message Detail

Thanks Ringworm. Page 1 will be nice, because I wanted to see my first round wrap-up again.

I've also got my first third round loss today (my North Division is still absolutely perfect!). What was I thinking, picking Dante over Ryo? ;)
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/20/2002 12:35:24 AM | Message Detail

Yep, just checked my email (I was busy with stats for a bit). And there nestled amid the mortgage offers and, uh, "enhancement" promises was your message with the glorious pages attached. :) Very cool. Thanks a lot.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

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