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| Summer 2002 Contest |
| FULL STATS - Summer 2002 Contest (Updated Nightly) |
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| From: Yuffie 4 Life | Posted: 8/24/2002 12:10:57 PM | Message Detail |
| Third Place Poll ends in 4 hours (4 GF Time).
Just an update. MMXcalibur and solarshadow are tied at 18. Vote
here:
http://s1.cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=4017889
--- Megaplayers. Back to my original sig. Supporting Samus, Mega Man, Link, and Snake throughout. Record: 44-10 (68 pts.) Includes Jill/Link. |
| From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/24/2002 1:30:30 PM | Message Detail |
| Glad to see the next match is up, and also
glad to see it's one that, as of right now, can't yet be called. As
this is an auto-loss for me, I am glad that either way it goes,
it'll screw up a lot of people. Though I'm stilling pulling for
Samus. That sums up my feelings almost exactly. Aya vs. DK was stressful because I had points on the line (one of the first 2 point matches even). But with an automatic loss this time I can just sit back and enjoy the fun. I voted for Samus but I'll also be happy if Sonic wins, so this match won't disappoint me no matter what the outcome. That's a pretty good feeling to have for once. :) --- Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: Cecil XIX | Posted: 8/24/2002 2:06:46 PM | Message Detail |
| bump. --- - Cecil The Nineteenth. Really. |
| From: JordanM85 | Posted: 8/24/2002 2:09:55 PM | Message Detail |
| very cool |
| From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/24/2002 10:43:04 PM | Message Detail |
| Some brief Jill vs. Link analysis. Well, this was a bit of a blowout, as predicted. The 18th biggest blowout of the tournament so far, which is not too big but it was certainly not a difficult win for Link. And I'd say the size of the win is significant, considering that Jill was able to take down some popular characters like Bomberman and particularly Kirby. This was Link's first real chance to show his strength, and I'd say he's looking strong. One important note to make: This match featured an unusually high number of voters. There are two main reasons for this. First of all, a link to the contest from Penny-Arcade was responsible for a swell in the votes. Secondly, the poll was left open for nearly 3 hours longer than most (closing sometime after 2:30AM CST). The combination of these 2 factors is the reason for the aberrant vote totals. So if you're a fan of asterisks, put one beside this match. Even without the extra votes, this match still would likely have been one of the most popular. With the extra votes it's by far the most popular match of the tournament so far. Over 85000 votes were cast, almost 10000 more than the 2nd most popular match. That's an amazing total. Future matches will have a hard time surpassing that number. Link managed to join Mega Man and Sephiroth as the only members of the 60000 vote club, although that membership is somewhat disputed. At midnight Link was still in the 59000 vote range and it wasn't until the poll went into extra time that he broke the 60000 mark. But the votes stand and Link now has the 2nd highest vote count. He was only 500 votes shy of 60000 in his first match and he garnered 54000 in his second match, so he's no stranger to the Biggest Vote Getters list. In fact, he's the only character to make the list in all 3 of his matches (Mega Man or Sephiroth would have a chance to join him if their match doesn't turn out to be as close as everyone is predicting). Not bad at all. Link should breeze by Scorpion for the South Division title, and looks like a serious force to be reckoned with in the final four. Jill took out some big names in her previous matches, but Link was just too much for her to handle. She managed to get 38000 votes in each of her 2 previous matches, but only 23000 this time, even with all the extra votes. Which leaves Samus as the only surviving female character... for now. A moderately impressive 69.0% of the entrants predicted Link to win this match. That's the 2nd best prediction percentage of the round. Mario and Snake are the only other 2 characters to have been picked by a reasonable number of people (72.5% and 67.5% respectively). Mega Man or Sephiroth could join that list, but since they're going head to head it seems rather unlikely. I expect that Link's next match against Scorpion will be the easiest to predict of the fourth round. But that will be the last time the outcome of a match will be obvious beforehand. --- Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: NeoElfboy | Posted: 8/25/2002 12:39:05 AM | Message Detail |
| There are a lot of issues to delve into tonight,
but I'm short on time right now, so I'll just look at the first,
Jill/Link. The obvious distinctive feature of this match was the number of votes it got. A number of people are blaming much of this on a link from Penny Arcade. It is true that, even before Midnight, we were seeing the highest vote total yet. However, I do not think that necessarily proves that the PA connection had much of an effect. It might be wise at this point to keep in mind the relative popularities of PA and GFAQs. The latter is one of the top 50 most visitied sites on the internet; the former has much more of a niche viewership (I don't know its numbers). It is rather absurd to claim a PA link would grossly change the numbers, since the vast majority of PA readers know of GameFAQs. If anything, I'd imagine Penny Arcade will benefit from the GameFAQs link rather than the other way around... ^_^ The other, more concrete reason is the fact that the poll dragged on. This unfortunately dilutes the numbers somewhat (Link should not be as high as he is on the blowouts by vote difference list, for instance) but other than that has little effect on the contest as a whole. It is worth noting that this added time also shortened the Sonic/Samus affair, which truly deserves the honour of #1 most popular match. But the Sonic/Samus battle is a topic in and of itself... ~NeoElfboy --- "Sometimes I think your massive intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon themselves and transform into stat bonuses!" -RM <VetSCCer> |
| From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/25/2002 12:40:57 AM | Message Detail |
| Tonight's Results: 1 - Sonic the Hedgehog (45:1) - 41939 / 49.98% (83912) 5 - Samus Aran (36:1) - 41973 / 50.02% (83912) - 5323 / 31.8% Updated Lists: Top 10 Closest Matches (difference in brackets) 1) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog 49.98% vs. Samus Aran 50.02% - (0.04%) 2) (ii) Donkey Kong 51.06% vs. Aya Brea 48.94% - (2.12%) 3) Strider Hiryu 52.57% vs. Raziel 47.43% - (5.14%) 4) Jill Valentine 53.34% vs. Kirby 46.66% - (6.68%) 5) Alucard 54.32% vs. Miles "Tails" Prower 45.68% - (8.64%) 6) Pikachu 54.41% vs. PaRappa The Rapper 45.59% - (8.82%) 7) Tidus 55.46% vs. Claire Redfield 44.54% - (10.92%) 8) (iii) Aeris 43.46% vs. Solid Snake 56.54% - (13.08%) 9) (iii) Pac-Man 42.26% vs. Scorpion 57.74% - (15.48%) 10) Kyo Kusanagi 57.79% vs. Abe 42.21% - (15.58%) Top 10 Smallest Vote Gaps (difference in brackets) 1) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog 41939 vs. Samus Aran 41973 - (34) 2) (ii) Donkey Kong 31798 vs. Aya Brea 30478 - (1320) 3) Strider Hiryu 30662 vs. Raziel 27661 - (3001) 4) Jill Valentine 37539 vs. Kirby 32837 - (4702) 5) Pikachu 30711 vs. PaRappa The Rapper 25736 - (4975) 6) Alucard 33516 vs. Miles "Tails" Prower 28190 - (5326) 7) Tidus 35004 vs. Claire Redfield 28117 - (6887) 8) Kyo Kusanagi 31160 vs. Abe 22760 - (8400) 9) Serious Sam 32301 vs. Mr. Driller 22696 - (9605) 10) (iii) Aeris 32702 vs. Solid Snake 42545 - (9843) Top 10 Most Popular Polls (by vote totals) 1) (iii) Jill Valentine vs. Link - 85273 2) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Samus Aran - 83912 3) (ii) Pikachu vs. Cloud Strife - 75371 4) (iii) Aeris vs. Solid Snake - 75247 5) (iii) Alucard vs. Cloud Strife - 74365 6) (iii) Lara Croft vs. Crono - 74059 7) Cloud Strife vs. Fox McCloud - 73242 8) Solid Snake vs. Squall Leonhart - 71676 9) (ii) Strider Hiryu vs. Link - 71262 10) Link vs. Little Mac - 70585 Top 10 Most Impressive Losers (by votes) 1) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog - 41939 2) Kirby - 32837 2) (iii) Aeris - 32702 3) (ii) Aya Brea - 30478 4) (iii) Pac-Man - 28936 5) (ii) Ryu - 28630 5) Miles "Tails" Prower - 28190 6) Claire Redfield - 28117 7) Raziel - 27661 8) (ii) Bomberman - 27432 9) (ii) Knuckles the Echidna - 26748 10) PaRappa The Rapper - 25736 Top 10 Hardest Matches to Predict (based on percentage of contest entrants choosing the winner) 1) (iii) Pac-Man vs. Scorpion 17.3% 2) (ii) Alucard 28.8% vs. Duke Nukem 3) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Samus Aran 31.8% 4) (ii) Bomberman vs. Jill Valentine 32.5% 5) (iii) Lara Croft vs. Crono 33.1% 6) (ii) Scorpion 33.6% vs. Max Payne 7) Morrigan Aensland 42.3% vs. Spyro the Dragon 57.7% 8) Gordon Freeman 56.3% vs. Tina Armstrong 43.7% 9) Abe 49.5% vs. Kyo Kusanagi 50.5% 10) Jill Valentine 50.8% vs. Kirby 49.2% --- Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: marsman57 | Posted: 8/25/2002 12:42:56 AM | Message Detail |
| Wow, no real comments on Sonic v. Samus... kinda
mad that Samus won, but that's just my opinion (probably because I
had Sonic), but I want Mega Man to win (eventhough it would help me
more to have Sephiroth win points wise). I just want a lot of
brackets to get messed up. I'd only lose 4 more points with
Sephiroth losing, some would lose like 48 ^_^. --- "Got a bad case of the Mondays? That's why Lord Chaos invented CAT COFFEE!" -- 8-bit theater |
| From: Ringworm | Posted: 8/25/2002 1:13:20 AM | Message Detail |
| Heh. After today, I might as well rule out my
chances entirely. It looks like Sephy's going down, thats my only
surviving tip in the bottom half, plus I have him winning the lot :/
I've known for about 2 weeks now though that I was going to struggle
to make the top 20% or so, and its going to be even worse after
today (most likely). Sonic v Samus was a lot closer than I expected, Pity I had Tidus winning that match :P. I seriously doubt any of the other matches will be that close either, but who knows. I still believe there's a lot of multiple voting taking place (compare the amount of votes to pre-competition polls for example), but I guess it can't be helped. Good luck to everyone else still in the comp. If you're looking for a new poll idea now, maybe it would be a good time to put a "Who do you think will win the competition?" poll up. As there'll only be 8 left after today, its probably the best time for it. --- Everyone that says "There's no such thing as a stupid question", has obviously never visited this board. |
| From: Ringworm | Posted: 8/25/2002 1:24:26 AM | Message Detail |
| Well, its only 198 diff now, guess I'm not
COMPLETELY out of it yet (out of the top 20% anyway). Its going to
be another huge amount of votes for this one. I'd say it will be
reasonably close too. VOTE SEPHY! (Again if you can :P) --- Everyone that says "There's no such thing as a stupid question", has obviously never visited this board. |
| From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/25/2002 1:24:43 AM | Message Detail |
| I don't know the exact number of people who
visit PA each day, but I seem to recall that it was in the range of
10,000-20,000. I could be way off though. Either way, a direct link
to the contest page from a popular website could definitely have an
effect on voting (even if those visitors are all aware of GameFAQs,
it's unlikely that many of them are daily voters). Maybe only 5,000
votes, maybe 3,000, maybe less. But I think it was
noticeable. Still, maybe it was just a really popular poll. I'm sure that's possible, although Jill/Link doesn't seem like the matchup that would do it. --- Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: NeoElfboy | Posted: 8/25/2002 1:26:34 AM | Message Detail |
| Penny Arcade viewership: ~20000 GameFAQs viewership: 4,000,000 I just can't see there being that big an impact. ~NeoElfboy --- "Sometimes I think your massive intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon themselves and transform into stat bonuses!" -RM <VetSCCer> |
| From: Jjukil | Posted: 8/25/2002 1:39:58 AM | Message Detail |
| Where are you getting those numbers,
Neo? Personally, from what I've heard, you need to move one of GF's 0s into PA's total.... Thanks, Jjukil |
| From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/25/2002 1:40:19 AM | Message Detail |
| I'm in trouble if Sephiroth loses too. I've got
him going to the finals, so if Mega Man holds on that'll end any
hope of me winning the contest (which is basically gone at this
point anyway, so I'm not going to worry about it too
much). That reminds me, I'll probably close the stats website poll at the end of today, or at any point that it looks like Sephiroth will definitely lose. :) Kinda screws up the poll if he goes down. As for Ringworm's "Who do you think will win the competition?" idea, I was thinking of waiting until the final four for that one. Although, that doesn't really leave much time to vote. Hmm, I'll think about it. NeoElfboy: Well, the polls only get about 70,000 votes regardless of the 4,000,000 viewership, and then PA sends maybe 10,000 viewers directly to the poll page? Many of those are likely to drop a vote while they're here. Dunno, maybe it had little to no effect, but it sure is easier to explain it that way. ;) In other news, the stats website is mostly updated. I found something I'll need to fix tomorrow, but the basic stuff for tonight is up (as usual). Last day to vote in the current website poll. --- Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/25/2002 2:42:33 AM | Message Detail |
| Okay, this should help with the PA debate.
Straight from Penny Arcade: "And, with well over sixty thousand
readers a day coming to check out new strips, it may be the most
popular gaming comic online." 60,000 thousand people see a link to a gaming site that relates directly to the comic. Most will visit. Some will already be GameFAQs frequenters, some won't bother to vote. Some will vote. Enough to be noticeable? Beats me, but it sounds good. --- Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: Jjukil | Posted: 8/25/2002 4:12:59 AM | Message Detail |
| Some unofficial analysis/venting on Sonic vs.
Samus: ...wow. Well, we knew this match would be close, but I don't think anyone expected it to be this close. Or this popular; for a matchup that only ran for 22 hours--and one many feel will simply decide who loses in the next round--the 83912 vote total was nothing short of staggering. It's not all that hard to explain, though; several factors contributed to that total. How close the matchup was obviously helped boost it up, and some of the extra PA voters are probably still hanging around too (especially since the link's still up there). Of course, the factor many people would be quickest to point out is the cheating that may or may not be involved...but I'll get into that later. That issue aside, the closeness of this battle was incredible. The lead changed hands dozens, maybe hundreds of times, and the winner was decided only by the sound of the bell. The only poll to even come close was Donkey Kong vs. Aya Brea--which actually has some eerie parallels with this one. It started out with DK in the lead, but Aya overtook him briefly--until DK gained a 3000 vote lead the next morning; Aya slowly caught up as the day went on, but couldn't make the final push she needed. The same thing happened with Sonic vs. Samus, but with Sonic's biggest lead just over half of DK's. The lower setback let Samus succeed where Aya failed an hour before the end of the poll; from there the result went back and forth until the very end. Under normal circumstances, neither character would really lose much face here. The tiny difference at the end of the poll shows that the two characters were basically equal in popularity; all either really needed was a little luck. As it turned out, Samus was the one to get that luck--along with those with Samus in their brackets. ;) But, as anyone here for the end of the poll knows, these were hardly normal circumstances. The nature of Samus's comeback lead many to believe that some vote-stuffing was taking place. Her steady increase after Sonic's morning charge, notable jumps as the poll neared its end, and failure to produce a substantial lead after overtaking Sonic all seemed a little suspicious. The accusations got so rampant that CJayC stepped in three times to comment on the subject, basically saying that multiple votes were found, but nearly equal for both sides and relatively insignificant. This calmed some, but others only grew more worried at his acknowledgment of multiple votes. Whether cheaters actually changed the percentiles is impossible for us to prove at this point. But there's no question that they damaged the poll. The possibility of Sonic losing unfairly angers many Sonic fans, and for good reason. There's little doubt that Sonic is a more mainstream character...although that doesn't always help here at Gamefaqs (see Duke Nukem and Crash). But the real losers here are Samus and her fans. In the span of six hours, she went from a respected competitor to a black mark on the face of the tournament. A number of people have voiced a new hatred for the character on the boards, all because of a few extra cheaters voting for her that may not even exist. The sentiment obviously hurts her chances in upcoming rounds, and possibly even those of fellow Nintendo mascots Mario and Link as well. The Sonic vs. Samus poll will likely be remembered as the most controversial of the tournament, and no one can be sure if Samus should have won or lost it. For die-hard Samus fans, that uncertainty is the hardest thing to swallow of all. (Sorry if I'm stealing your thunder here, Solar. I just felt like saying a few words about this match; this seems like the least volatile place to do it.) Thanks, Jjukil |
| From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/25/2002 2:43:36 PM | Message Detail |
| Not at all, be my guest. I'm quite interested to
hear your thoughts on the issue. I guess I'll comment on the cheating situation a bit, since I'm interested in exploring it and I'm not going to go into it heavily in the daily analysis. I'll start by saying I'm not convinced that cheating ruined this poll, although I am open to the possibility. I'd like to think my outlook on the subject if fairly neutral, since I respect Sonic and Samus equally and since my bracket reads Tidus over Ryu for this battle. It's true that I voted for Samus and was rooting for her early on, but by the end of the day I was hoping Sonic would take it. I would have been fine with either outcome. So, how could Samus make a comeback if not for cheaters? Well, Jjukil gave the first evidence of how it's possible. This match followed much the same pattern as the Aya vs. DK battle. Aya was actually in the lead shortly after the poll opened, but by morning DK had assumed the lead and he carried it throughout the day. Then, as midnight approached, Aya began closing the gap and might actually have caught up at that rate if the poll had lasted a few hours longer. Much the same thing happened in the Sonic/Samus match, only this time there was less of a deficit to make up and Samus actually pulled off the comeback. It could be argued that both surges in votes for the losing character were the result of cheating, but that fails to explain why they were also able to hold a lead earlier in the day. Another possible explanation? There is some evidence that the more mainstream characters tend to receive more votes during the daylight hours, whereas the less well-known characters are more popular with the late-night crowd (possibly because it consists of more experienced gamers who are more likely to have heard of the other character). That's a difficult theory to prove, but it does make some sense that mainstream characters like DK and Sonic would fair better with the casual daytime visitors than Aya and Samus. Additionally, it is not uncommon for certain characters to see a dramatic increase in vote share within the final few hours of a poll. A good example would be Sephiroth, who maintained a little more than 75% of the vote against Crash for the majority of the day (if I remember correctly), before increasing it up to 81.52% as the night wore on. This has happened with other characters as well, and I can actually produce a visual record of one such occurrence. In the final 2 hours of the Cloud/Pikachu battle, Cloud's percentage of the incoming votes mysteriously spiked up, while Pikachu's dropped. It would be hard to argue that this spike was a result of cheating, since Cloud was ahead by approximately 60% at the time and there was absolutely no reason to cheat for him. This spike didn't affect the over all outcome much though, because the total number of votes was decreasing rapidly as the lackluster poll drew to a close. However, it does indicate that a character's incoming vote percentage can change noticeably within the last few hours of a poll, and this effect could possibly be amplified in a very close poll with a lot of interest down to the wire. To see this in visual form, check out the second graph on the vote distribution page: https://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/distribution.html Could these factors have been the reason for Samus' comeback instead of the accusations of cheating? Possible. CJayC has indicated that very little cheating was possible; very few were able to cheat, those who could managed only 20-30 votes each, and the cheating balanced out for both sides. Still, maybe it was cheating that did it. Although there appear to be other possible explanations. Later today I'll probably have a look through the topic that kept a record of the poll totals and see if I can find any evidence one way or another from that. I'm not sure how good their records were, but it's worth a look. --- Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: MMXcalibur | Posted: 8/25/2002 2:53:44 PM | Message Detail |
| solarshadow, Im interested...who did you vote
for in the last two heated matches? Sonic and Samus and Mega Man/ Sephiroth? NOt trying to pry out anything. Your stats and reviews are exceptional. I'm just wondering who the MAJOR statician of the tourney is voting for :D --- (>^_^)-( ()============<D <(0_o'^) -KIRBY X-BUSTER! MEGA MAN(rd. 3):Vote against over-rated villains! |
| From: Samberdog | Posted: 8/25/2002 3:09:19 PM | Message Detail |
| "But, as anyone here for the end of the poll
knows, these were hardly normal circumstances." LOL, this line is gold Jjukil. Great analysis overall, too. I think cheating did make a big impact on this match. And I'm rather upset. I feel like I've been cheated out of four points, and it disappoints me that people would cheat in a contest like. I have lost some respect for this contest and some of the users. I can only hope that the rest of contest isn't dictated by who can find the way to cheat the fastest... This match between Megaman and Sephiroth is very interesting. It's 3 o'clock GF time, and there's already more than 60000 votes. I have Sephirtoh going to the final four, but I'm glad it's close. If Sephiroth can barely scrape by Megaman, then I think he'll lose to Link easily. I also wonder if tomorrow's match will be as close as today's is. Is Sephiroth more popular than Cloud? Is Megaman more popular than Mario? If we get anything from this match, it's that the big Squaresoft characters aren't quite as invincible as some originally thought. --- Muse of the Day: If electricity comes from electrons, then where does morality come from? |
| From: Jjukil | Posted: 8/25/2002 3:26:00 PM | Message Detail |
| Agreed, Samberdog (and thanks for the
compliments!). Even with Mega Man's earlier blowouts, I wasn't
really convinced he could compete like this. It was even better to
see him winning when the poll started, since I'm a true Blue Bomber
fan. ;) Thanks, Jjukil |
| From: NeoElfboy | Posted: 8/25/2002 3:34:14 PM | Message Detail |
| It's also possible that this is showing us
MegaMan's popularity. It is entirely possible that these are the two
most popular characters in the tournament. About the PA issue, I don't know about the rest of you, but I don't follow random links that often. I doubt that many people do. I have finite time on my hands. Certainly there could be some effect... but I doubt it was significant, and it deserves no more than the smallest of asterisks. Especially considering the magnitude of certain events the day following. Now for Sonic/Samus... Like Solar, I was left by circumstances as a neutral observer to what will almost assuredly be the closest match of the tournament. I voted Samus (and it's interesting to consider that if I and twenty others had changed our votes, the whole contest would look different) but I would have been almost as happy to see Sonic win (I prefer Samus' games, but a Sonic win would upset more brackets and leave me in a better situation). Cheating has always been a fact of the tournament. Simply put, it's too troublesome to eliminate completely, and in general, it has no effect. But this match was determined by less than 40 votes in the end. Any cheating may well have had an impact, which is unfortunate to say the least. More disappointing to me than the cheating was the reactions of certain people on the Boards. I found it upsetting that people were suggesting boycotting the rest of the contest, leaving GameFAQs, sueing CJayC, in response to the match. The assumption of Sonic fans that Samus could not have comeback without cheating shows remarkable ignorance and blind fanboyism. The fact is, such a comeback was always possible. There are innumerable possible reasons for it, ranging from Samus being more popular in certain time zones, to a push on Nintendo boards for Samus votes, to simple bad luck for the blue hedgehog. There is no proof that cheating changed the match, and hence CJayC was, in my mind, 100% correct to clearly state that the results should stand. It is unfortunate that the vote gap falls within the error margins (allegedly) introudced by cheating, but that should not ruin the contest. Even if we don't know that Samus "deserved" to win, we do know that it was more likely than her opponent "deserving" (given the fact that we know not which side would cheat more). Time to move on, everybody... it's just four points, it's just a contest. A contest that is getting extremely interesting of late, to be sure. ~NeoElfboy --- "Sometimes I think your massive intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon themselves and transform into stat bonuses!" -RM <VetSCCer> |
| From: GamerAndre | Posted: 8/25/2002 3:51:37 PM | Message Detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| From: GamerAndre | Posted: 8/25/2002 3:55:37 PM | Message Detail |
| Well, I do have to Agree NeoElf, Samus is
proabably the the only besides Mega Man who could have taken down
Sonic (In that Half of the Quarter Final bracket), but the Fact that
Cheating is rampant and the margin was -100 votes kinda spoiled it
for me, belive me, I would have accepted this loss better if Samus
had a bigger margin of victory --- "I smell shades of November 2000, although this isn't determining the President" |
| From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/25/2002 4:01:48 PM | Message Detail |
| MMXcalibur: I voted Samus in the first match,
although I was a bit torn in my decision. I might've voted Sonic if
I'd saved my vote until later in the day. As for the second match,
it will distress you, I'm sure, to know that I chose Sephiroth.
Another hard call for me since I'm also a big Mega Man fan, but I've
got Sephiroth in my bracket so that swayed me a little because it
looks like he'll need every vote he can get. I'm still holding on to
the faintest glimmer of hope that I can do well in this contest, but
since that hope is barely a flicker I won't be too upset if Mega Man
ends up winning. NeoElfboy: On the PA issue, I would agree that few people follow random links. But as a regular Penny Arcade reader and I can tell you that I follow most of the interesting links provided by Tycho, and particularly those with the potential to illuminate the daily strip. Since the most recent comic deals directly with the GameFAQs character battle, anyone not familiar with it would have some motivation to follow the link and check it out. PA has been known to overload various website's servers when linking to them, so I'd imagine a fair number of the daily readers actually follow the links. But that's all I'll say about that. :) As for the rest of your post, I agree almost 100% with everything you said and feel that it may be the best post in this entire topic. I'm actually starting to wonder if being a neutral observer has me at a disadvantage when trying to appreciate the effect of cheating. I'm sure if I'd had Sonic in my bracket I would be feeling very suspicious and a little angry right now, even if there was no confirmed legitimate target for that anger. And that's really the main problem: we can't prove anything. Samus made a miraculous comeback, but there are a number of ways that she could have done so legitimately. Which means we can't confidently chalk it up to cheating. And CJayC has indicated that cheating was minimal and balanced, so we'll just have to accept the outcome and hope that it represents the true will of the voters. Hmm, all this talk is not getting the website updated. I'll be back in a little while. :) --- Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: Blitz Ace | Posted: 8/25/2002 4:35:04 PM | Message Detail |
| I love your stats man, keep up the good
work. --- Good luck, and may the Bark be with you. President of DOG, Dictation of Gamefaqs. |
| From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/25/2002 4:45:45 PM | Message Detail |
| Okay, the website's been updated with the usual
daily stuff (full lists, upsets, odds, seeding). I've also updated
the Top 10 Most Even Matches list with the odds from the current
round. Either I forgot to put them up before or Tripod tricked me
into reverting to a previous list (it does that sometimes). But it's
fixed now. I just realized I have a lot of work ahead of me for tonight/tomorrow. With the fourth round starting I've got to make the pages for the fourth round stats, add the top lists for the third round, and update the contest averages. Not to mention doing analysis wrap-ups and previews. Phew. At least it will make this topic and the website worth checking out for the next couple of days. :) --- Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: NeoElfboy | Posted: 8/25/2002 4:53:15 PM | Message Detail |
| Hmm... you raise a good point about the two of
us possibly not fully appreciating the Sonic/Samus situation. I
suppose it's impossible for me to fully sympathise with those who
feel cheated... especially those who had a chance at winning the
contest ruined by the close outcome. On the other hand, I'm not blinded by anger, either. It's almost a shame what a distraction this match has been... nobody's even been bothering to discuss the events of the current day, which to be sure features one of the most exciting (and pivotal) matches thus far. ~NeoElfboy --- "Sometimes I think your massive intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon themselves and transform into stat bonuses!" -RM <VetSCCer> |
| From: durron597 | Posted: 8/25/2002 6:06:31 PM | Message Detail |
| solarshadow: Could you ask CJayC to put a link to your page on the "view results only" page? (Where the current bout's tally is) |
| From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/25/2002 8:13:25 PM | Message Detail |
| I could try. I don't think he will though. You
could suggest it too: contests@gamefaqs.com Of course, by the time he gets around to reading his mail again the contest will probably be over. :) --- Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/25/2002 9:36:28 PM | Message Detail |
| Some Sonic vs. Samus analysis. Well, what can I say. This was certainly the most exciting and the most controversial match yet. An unbelievable number of lead changes and an amazing finish. I don't think I need to point out that this was by far the closest match of the tournament. It was so close it makes the Aya/DK battle look like a monster blowout. Only a measely 34 votes separated Sonic and Samus by the time the poll closed (a mere 0.04% difference). I'm sure most of us never expected to see a match this close. At the beginning of the poll the lead changed hands a couple of times, and Samus was ahead for awhile. Sonic staged an early comeback and grabbed the lead. He continued to lead for most of the day, but could never manage to pull away by more than 2000 votes. Samus was able to keep it close and this set the stage for a dramatic finish. With only a couple of hours left Samus began to seriously start closing the small gap. As midnight approached the 2 characters were essentially tied, with the lead see-sawing back and forth right up until the final bell. It was really a matter of luck as to which character would be leading when the poll closed, and Samus just narrowly managed to eek out the win. Much to the disdain of Sonic fans. This match was of course marred by the accusations of cheating. To some, Samus' miracle comeback could only be explained by an influx of illegitimate votes. The truth is that, while suspicions continue to run high, there is no proof that cheaters decided this match. There are a number of possible legitimate explanations for Samus' late charge, and CJayC has advised us that the actual amount of cheating was minimal and in equal proportion on both sides. That's all I'll say about that. This was another amazing match as far as total votes are concerned. The nearly 84000 votes puts the match at 2nd on the Most Popular Polls list. Not bad for a poll that was up for less than 22 hours. Why so many voters? Well, the fact that the match was so close is probably the first reason. An exciting match is more likely to draw voters right down to the wire than a boring one. The extra cheater votes probably boosted the total a little as well. It's hard to say by how much; CJayC has assured us that only the most fervent were able to cheat, with only 20-30 phony votes each. Hard to know if that had an appreciable effect, but it's worth mentioning. Also, the link to the poll results is still on the Penny Arcade main page, which is no doubt sending additional voters this way. Finally, the fact that 2 very popular characters went head to head could certainly have inspired voters to come out to the poll. Samus and Sonic were both coming off approximately 60% wins against difficult opponents, so it's no surprise that this one was close, although I don't think anyone expected it to be this close. Samus' vote count has hovered around the 40000 range for her previous 2 matches, so the 41973 she managed this time fits in quite nicely, and gives her the 24th highest vote count. Right behind her at number 25 is Sonic, with 41939 votes. This total puts him shockingly high up the list for a losing character, ahead of an incredible 31 winning totals. That easily breaks Kirby's previous loser's record of 32837 (50th on the list). That is seriously impressive and gives you an idea of just how worthy these 2 characters were. But sadly only one could move on. (continued) |
| From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/25/2002 9:36:29 PM | Message Detail |
| So, with Sonic's defeat we're down to only one
number 1 seeded character left in the tournament (that'd be Mario).
Amazingly, all of the other number 1 seeds have been taken down by
number 5 seeded characters this round. And those exact same 5th
seeds (Crono, Scorpion, Samus) were responsible for wiping out the
4th seeds in their division last round. A very bizarre coincidence,
to be sure (check the upsets section of the website for
more). Only 31.8% of the contest entrants picked Samus to win this match, which was pretty much the expected number. Probably a very similar number picked Sonic to take it, with the rest split between Tidus, Ryu, and the others. That makes this the 3rd hardest match to predict so far. And we can expect the majority of the matches from here on out to be in the 30% or lower range. Samus' next match will be against the winner of Mega Man vs. Sephiroth, which is still very much in doubt. Either way, Samus will have her hands full. Most feel the winner of that battle will take the division title as well, but Samus has surprised us before so don't count her out just yet. --- Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/25/2002 9:53:51 PM | Message Detail |
| New poll going up soon on the stats website.
Last chance to vote for which of the "elite five" characters you
think is least likely to win it all. --- Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: javajim | Posted: 8/25/2002 10:31:36 PM | Message Detail |
| Well, seeing as how I had Sonic vs Mario in the final round, this one hurt quite a bit. Any slim chance I had is finally crushed. Even though there was confirmed cheating involved, I think Cjayc had the right idea in ending the polls at midnight, and letting chance decide. I think one of the reasons for the late surge in votes was the attention the match was getting. I for one was online trying to convince anyone who would listen to vote for Sonic, and I got a few people to do so for me. I'm sure I'm not the only one that attracted more people to the polls than is usual. Now that my chances are over, I'm actually a little relieved; now I can vote my favorite characters without having a nervous breakdown over which one wins. The rest of this contest should be a lot less stressful for me. |
| From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/25/2002 10:37:31 PM | Message Detail |
| Now that my chances are over, I'm actually a
little relieved; now I can vote my favorite characters without
having a nervous breakdown over which one wins. Yeah, that's exactly how I felt when I blew it with my second round picks. I'm still a little bit disappointed, especially when I get a hard match right (Scorpion over Pac-Man for instance) because I know it means nothing now, but it's a lot less stressful and any future losses become much easier to take. --- Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: NeoElfboy | Posted: 8/25/2002 10:48:59 PM | Message Detail |
| Nice analysis, as always. The third round is drawing to a close, and with just an hour left it's starting to look like Sephiroth will survive. It'd be foolish to call it now, though. I have a number of thoughts stemming from the events of today's match, (the most significant in the tournament to date, I feel) but I'll save them for when things are official. ~NeoElfboy --- "Sometimes I think your massive intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon themselves and transform into stat bonuses!" -RM <VetSCCer> |
| From: StaindSoul | Posted: 8/25/2002 11:09:12 PM | Message Detail |
| Wow! I just checked out your website. It's much better than I would think! Thanks a lot! |
| From: Jjukil | Posted: 8/25/2002 11:19:35 PM | Message Detail |
| Here's something interesting I've noticed about
today's match: it hasn't caused NEARLY as much arguing and flaming
as I thought it would. I haven't been around for most of the day, granted...but I haven't seen a lot of really large or out-of-control topics about it. Am I missing something? Or were we...? Thanks, Jjukil |
| From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/25/2002 11:37:34 PM | Message Detail |
| Nice analysis, as always. Thanks. You'll notice this is the first time I haven't used the words "brief" or "quick" in the first sentence. ;) Jjukil: Seems like everyone's still stuck on the results of yesterday's match. Even still, there should be more talk about it than this. As NeoElfboy said, it's a shame this match isn't getting its proper due. --- Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: Jjukil | Posted: 8/25/2002 11:39:52 PM | Message Detail |
| *nods* Definitely. There are so many things to
talk about here besides the cheating, and we're just
not.... I could go into some of those things here, but I'll leave it up to you guys. For now, I'll just say: ...96,271.... Thanks, Jjukil |
| From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/25/2002 11:56:15 PM | Message Detail |
| Heheh. Yeah, unbelievable. Uh oh, I just realized that Mario vs. Cloud is coming up in mere minutes from now. This is still a make or break battle for my bracket, and I've also got my perfect North Division on the line. If this match can't get people to stop talking about cheating for a few minutes, I fear nothing will. --- Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/26/2002 12:32:12 AM | Message Detail |
| Tonight's Results: 6 - Mega Man (45:1) - 48185 / 49.49% (97357) 7 - Sephiroth (9:1) - 49172 / 50.51% (97357) - 9344 / 55.7% Updated Lists: Top 10 Closest Matches (difference in brackets) 1) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog 49.98% vs. Samus Aran 50.02% - (0.04%) 2) (iii) Mega Man 49.49% vs. Sephiroth 50.51% - (1.02%) 3) (ii) Donkey Kong 51.06% vs. Aya Brea 48.94% - (2.12%) 4) Strider Hiryu 52.57% vs. Raziel 47.43% - (5.14%) 5) Jill Valentine 53.34% vs. Kirby 46.66% - (6.68%) 6) Alucard 54.32% vs. Miles "Tails" Prower 45.68% - (8.64%) 7) Pikachu 54.41% vs. PaRappa The Rapper 45.59% - (8.82%) 8) Tidus 55.46% vs. Claire Redfield 44.54% - (10.92%) 9) (iii) Aeris 43.46% vs. Solid Snake 56.54% - (13.08%) 10) (iii) Pac-Man 42.26% vs. Scorpion 57.74% - (15.48%) Top 10 Smallest Vote Gaps (difference in brackets) 1) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog 41939 vs. Samus Aran 41973 - (34) 2) (iii) Mega Man 48185 vs. Sephiroth 49172 - (987) 3) (ii) Donkey Kong 31798 vs. Aya Brea 30478 - (1320) 4) Strider Hiryu 30662 vs. Raziel 27661 - (3001) 5) Jill Valentine 37539 vs. Kirby 32837 - (4702) 6) Pikachu 30711 vs. PaRappa The Rapper 25736 - (4975) 7) Alucard 33516 vs. Miles "Tails" Prower 28190 - (5326) 8) Tidus 35004 vs. Claire Redfield 28117 - (6887) 9) Kyo Kusanagi 31160 vs. Abe 22760 - (8400) 10) Serious Sam 32301 vs. Mr. Driller 22696 - (9605) Top 10 Most Popular Polls (by vote totals) 1) (iii) Mega Man vs. Sephiroth - 97357 2) (iii) Jill Valentine vs. Link - 85273 3) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Samus Aran - 83912 4) (ii) Pikachu vs. Cloud Strife - 75371 5) (iii) Aeris vs. Solid Snake - 75247 6) (iii) Alucard vs. Cloud Strife - 74365 7) (iii) Lara Croft vs. Crono - 74059 8) Cloud Strife vs. Fox McCloud - 73242 9) Solid Snake vs. Squall Leonhart - 71676 10) (ii) Strider Hiryu vs. Link - 71262 Top 10 Most Impressive Losers (by votes) 1) (iii) Mega Man - 48185 2) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog - 41939 3) Kirby - 32837 4) (iii) Aeris - 32702 5) (ii) Aya Brea - 30478 6) (iii) Pac-Man - 28936 7) (ii) Ryu - 28630 8) Miles "Tails" Prower - 28190 9) Claire Redfield - 28117 10) Raziel - 27661 --- Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: Samberdog | Posted: 8/26/2002 12:36:07 AM | Message Detail |
| Great Sonic/Samus analysis. Almost 100000 total votes. That's amazing! I wonder if that number will be able to be topped in this contest. Mario and Cloud could do it, I guess we'll see. More great Solar! --- Muse of the Day: Why do you get on a bus, but get into a car? |
| From: NeoElfboy | Posted: 8/26/2002 1:05:56 AM | Message Detail |
| The fun never ends, does it? As I write this,
Cloud leads Mario by a mere 32 votes, or roughly 0.5%. For the third
night in a row, it looks like we'll have no idea who the winner is
until the final hour. Getting back to the big match of the first three rounds, MegaMan/Sephiroth... Starting on a personal note, this match was huge for my bracket. At the start of the Mega/Seph bout, I had 71 points with 163 possible. Of the 92 points that were still up for grabs, 60 were tied up in one character. Had the match gone the other way, I would have quietly retired from the contest by now. As it is, I still hold out hope of doing well (if not winning, needless to say). That said, despite the importance of this match to my own contest performance, I would have been happy to see it go either way. I'm not ashamed to say I liked Sephiroth's character, yet the MegaMan series has never disappointed me, and I've always had a soft spot for the Blue Bomber. I would have loved to see both get to the quarter-finals (and I feel both could have in many other possible bracket setups) but it was not possible. Blame poor seeding for that... the fact that MegaMan and Sephiroth were seeded behind five others in their division, including Serious Sam and Crash Bandicoot, is nothing short of laughable (who were both, fittingly, utterly embarrassed by the lower-seeded pair). MegaMan is now out of the picture. He is without a doubt the first character with a bona fide chance to win to fall... personally, I'd consider him one of the four best here. I'd imagine everybody considers him at least in the top 7. But, whatever threat MegaMan might have posed is fairly meaningless now. On to the character who will be pivotal in the final week. (continued) --- "Sometimes I think your massive intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon themselves and transform into stat bonuses!" -RM <VetSCCer> |
| From: NeoElfboy | Posted: 8/26/2002 1:06:45 AM | Message Detail |
| Sephiroth has defeated MegaMan. What does this
mean? There are two distinct outlooks, depending on whether one is a
pessimist or an optimist (from the standpoint of somebody with
Sephiroth winning it all): One view is that Sephiroth could barely contain MegaMan. Isn't he one of the Elite Five? Shouldn't he have done better against one who doesn't share that label, however impressive that character may have been in the first two rounds? It is entirely possible that, if Seph couldn't manage a decent margin against Mega, he is doomed against Link. After all, both characters have broad appeal, both dating back around 15 years, and both starred in games which much of the GameFAQs votership grew up with. The key difference is their impact in recent years... while Ocarina of Time is regarded by many as the best title on the Nintendo 64, the MegaMan games haven't been quite as relevant... best-sellers, widely loved games, too be sure... but they haven't had the impact on the public of an OOT... or, for that matter, a Final Fantasy VII. Surely Link will close the gap that the Blue Bomber couldn't, and walk away with a win. The other view as that Sephiroth has survived his greatest trial. He has walked through the fire and still stands. Consider, for a moment, what MegaMan represented. He had the unwavering support of those who vote based on "what the character did for the industry". He had the support of those who champion so-called old-school characters. He had the support of those who feel FF7 is overrated, and those who hate Sephiroth, Square, or RPGs in general. Most importantly, though, he had something that no other character Seph will ever face again can ever claim to have... an almost total lack of haters. Rest assured, Samus and Link, Seph's two likely obstacles to the final, have their share of haters. Not many, perhaps. But they are there, and their numbers may have been swelled by the allegations of cheating on the part of Nintendo fans to get Samus the win over Sonic. It is entirely possible that almost all those who would ever have voted against Sephiroth already have, which would suggest he is capable of advancing past Link to the final. There you go. Pick your theory. Either way, assuming the latter two quarter-finals go as most predict, expect a delightful matchup between Link and Sephiroth in the semi-finals. I know I'll be riveted. ^_^ ~NeoElfboy --- "Sometimes I think your massive intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon themselves and transform into stat bonuses!" -RM <VetSCCer> |
| From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/26/2002 2:21:52 AM | Message Detail |
| Very interesting. I kind of like the second
theory. It makes some sense and could certainly play out that way.
Although I still feel that Link has the edge at this point. I guess
we'll have a better idea after Samus vs. Sephiroth. He has walked through the fire and still stands. Heh, nice. In other news, the stats website has seen a bunch of updating. Almost all of the sections have been updated and there's a new poll up (another of NeoElfboy's suggestions, I believe). All that's left to be updated is the Contest Averages, which I'll get around to early tomorrow. Oh, I'd like to urge everybody to take a quick look at the odds page: https://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/odds.html The 7 characters with the best odds are all still standing, with the only surprise being Scorpion down at number 23. I know the odds were generated based on the entries, but I'm still amazed that they accurately identified the top 7 characters. Looks like our collective ability to predict the matches was pretty darn good (with a minor oops on Scorpion). I wonder if that will continue... P.S. Vote Mario. ;) --- Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/26/2002 12:43:57 PM | Message Detail |
| The third round averages are up, and I'll post
them below as well. The first and second round averages can of
course still be found on the website:
https://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/avg.html -CONTEST AVERAGES- Average Number of Votes Received By The Winning Character North Division 52060 75.3% East Division 47517 63.6% South Division 50735 66.0% West Division 45573 50.3% Third Round Avg 48971 62.9% Average Number of Votes Received By The Losing Character North Division 17043 24.7% East Division 27137 36.4% South Division 26139 34.0% West Division 45062 49.7% Third Round Avg 28845 37.1% Average Number of Total Votes Per Match North Division 69103 East Division 74653 South Division 76874 West Division 90635 Third Round Avg 77816 Average Win Margin North Division 35017 50.6% East Division 20380 27.2% South Division 24596 32.0% West Division 511 0.6% Third Round Avg 20126 25.8% Average Number of Contest Entrants Predicting Each Match Correctly (out of 16764 total entrants) North Division 10566 63.0% East Division 8429 50.3% South Division 7238 43.2% West Division 7334 43.7% Third Round Avg 8391 50.1% Average Number of Points Earned by Contest Entrants (out of 8 possible points per division, 32 per round) North Division 5.04 East Division 4.02 South Division 3.45 West Division 3.50 Third Round 16.01 So, in order to be in the majority you need 59.69 points right now (well, 60 or above). How's your bracket doing? Also, the total number of votes cast so far in the contest is 3,527,030. --- Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/26/2002 2:08:29 PM | Message Detail |
| Some quick Mega Man vs. Sephiroth
analysis. Remember everything I said about Sonic vs. Samus? Well, replace "Sonic" with "Mega Man", "Samus" with "Sephiroth", and double the number of intensifiers. That's basically what it amounts to. It was another epic battle, and the biggest one of the third round. Unfortunately, it was overshadowed a bit by all the talk about yesterday's match. This battle wasn't quite as exciting as Sonic/Samus, but it had its share of drama. Mega Man opened the poll with an early lead, up by as much as 10%. Sephiroth quickly cut into it and soon caught up. Sephiroth took the lead in the wee hours of the morning and held a small margin for the rest of the day. Mega Man attempted a late charge (a la Samus), but he just couldn't make a serious dent in the vote gap. Still, this ended up as easily the 2nd closest match of the tournament, trumped only by the amazing Sonic/Samus showdown. Remember what I said about doubling the intensifiers? This was an incredibly amazing match as far as total votes are concerned. An astonishing 97357 votes were cast in the poll. That's getting awfully close to the "unreachable" 100 grand mark. And it's more than 12,000 votes higher than the 2nd place Jill/Link battle. The thesaurus is running out of ways for me to express my incredulity. :) Possible reasons for the staggeringly high vote total: Increased interest in the contest following the Sonic/Samus bout, Mega Man vs. Sephiroth being the highest profile match yet, the link from Penny Arcade, the generally increased vote totals of the third round, increased cheating, etc. This truly was a clash of the titans. Both Mega Man and Sepiroth's previous battles earned them most of the highest spots on the Biggest Blowouts and Biggest Vote Getters lists. These 2 had been dominating the contest, so it's only fitting that their battle was this epic. Mega Man had achieved over 60000 votes in each of his previous matches, with Sephiroth pulling in over 60000 once and 54000 the other time. Mega Man was averaging 92% of the vote, while Sephiroth was averaging 85%. Needless to say both of their numbers took a serious hit this round, but they're still impressive none the less. Sephiroth's 49172 vote count and Mega Man's 48185 count left them just short of joining Link and Cloud as the only 3-time members of the 50000 vote club. But more impressively, Mega Man's losing vote count places him 18th on the overall list (out of 112). That puts almost 40 winning totals to shame. Mind-numbingly amazing. Mega Man wasn't able to win it, but at least he went out with a major bang. 55.7% of the entrants picked Sephiroth to win, which is pretty impressive if you consider that only 77.0% had Sephiroth getting this far and that his battle with Mega Man turned out to be so close. I'm guessing that most of us underestimated the Blue Bomber. After all, the odds clearly favored Sephiroth while the eventual win was anything but clear cut. Sephiroth will face off against Samus in the fourth round. After what he went through against Mega Man this should be a much easier battle. Although it's probably a risky idea to count out Samus just yet. She's had an impressive run and was able to take down the likes of Sonic the Hedgehog. Still, the smart money has to be on Sephiroth, which could set up an epic semi-final against Link. I can't wait. --- Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/26/2002 2:50:42 PM | Message Detail |
| Bonus stat: Combined Vote Counts For Third Round Participants (losers in italics) Link - 175432 Mega Man - 172138 Cloud Strife - 166356 Sephiroth - 164495 Crono - 145710 Mario - 136217 Solid Snake - 130777 Sonic the Hedgehog - 128564 Samus Aran - 122123 Scorpion - 121037 Aeris - 120947 Pac-Man - 102693 Lara Croft - 102616 Jill Valentine - 98709 Alucard - 91958 Donkey Kong - 75907 --- Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/26/2002 8:24:10 PM | Message Detail |
| -THIRD ROUND WRAP UP- Now this is more like it! Finally a little excitement in the polls. This round started slowly, with Mario butt-stomping DK for an easy 80% win. No real surprise that he won, although this was the first time he managed to put up some decent numbers. Cloud and Link also had easy wins as expected, trouncing their opponents with around 70% of the vote. Perhaps somewhat unexpectedly, Crono defeated Lara by a similar margin. Crono is looking more and more dangerous as the tournament progresses. The biggest upset of the round was probably Scorpion's victory over Pac-Man. Scorpion defied the odds yet again and took down an old school icon. An amazingly low 17.3% of the entrants predicted this one correctly, making it by far the hardest match to predict yet. Look for some low numbers to rival that in the upcoming rounds, as the battles become fiercer and the vote gaps narrower. Snake still wasn't able to impress anybody, but he did manage to slip past Aeris. Crono will be his true test next round. Were Snake's chances overestimated, or is he merely hiding in the shadows, waiting for his moment to strike? We shall see. It was of course expected that the Sonic/Samus and Mega Man/Sephiroth matches would be extremely close, but not this unbelievably close. Out of a total of 97357 votes, only a mere 987 separated Mega Man and Sephiroth when the dust finally settled, and even more incredibly, the Sonic/Samus match was decided by a frighteningly small 34 votes. That's right, after 83912 total votes were cast the 2 characters were separated by less than 3 dozen votes. That's truly amazing. We never thought any of the matches would end up being this close. And not only did they end up being close, but they were exciting throughout the day. The lead changed hands multiple times and the outcome was never certain until midnight struck. It was also more excitement than most users could handle, as the contest message board went absolutely nuts (update: it's still out of control). Mario, Link, and Snake turned out to be the only easy wins to predict, all with prediction percentages at close to 70% or higher. Scorpion, Samus, and Crono turned out to be the hard picks, with around 30% and lower getting those wins right. Cloud and Sephiroth hovered around the 50% range, proving that their impressive showings thus far have surprised more than a few of the entrants. The overall average prediction rate for the third round was down to 50.1%. So most people were still getting the matches right, but only just barely. In fact, in the South and West divisions there was actually an average of less than 50% for the first time in the tournament. Only about 43% of the entrants managed to correctly predict the outcomes of those matches. The number of voters has been gradually increasing as the tournament has progressed, but it was up sharply for the third round. Between the first and second round the average number of voters increased by 4000, but between the second and third round it was up by an additional 14000. The polls now average nearly 78000 voters per match, and the third round bouts have taken over most of the Top 10 Most Popular Polls list (6 of the 8 battles made the list, all near the top). The average win margin was down by 10% to a difference of only 26% per match, but the actual vote gap dropped by only about 2500 down to 20000. So the characters are separated by approximately the same amount of votes, but their overall vote counts are much higher so the percentages have shrunk. (continued) |
| From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/26/2002 8:24:39 PM | Message Detail |
| Since the matches are becoming closer, the
impressive individual vote counts of previous rounds have all but
disappeared. Link was the only character to make the Top 10 Biggest
Vote Getters list this round, with an impressive 62000 (good for 2nd
on the list) over the "thanks for coming out" effort of Jill. Link
is obviously the only character to make the list 3 times so far.
He's had perhaps the easiest division to contend with, but the young
Hylian is definitely looking strong. Donkey Kong had the lowest vote total by far of the round, landing him at 8th on the Top 10 Lowest Vote Getters list. He was the only character that really looked out of place in the third round. The close nature of many of the battles paved the way for some very impressive losers totals. In particular, Mega Man and Sonic managed amazing vote counts (Sonic with over 40000, Mega Man with nearly 50000) that placed them well ahead of many of the winners'. The Blue Bomber is currently an unbelievable 18th on the overall list, while the speedy hedgehog is merely a very amazing 27th. They can certainly hold their heads high, even in their defeat. The fourth round promises to continue the excitement of the third, and maybe even add to it. Don't go anywhere. --- Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
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