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Summer 2002 Contest

FULL STATS - Summer 2002 Contest (Updated Nightly)

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From: Ringworm | Posted: 8/20/2002 12:41:27 AM | Message Detail

Thats good. I actually didn't have any spam today (WOOHOO), that'd have to be the first time ever, that I can remember. I guess I'll have about 20-30 tomorrow though.

I can't see today's poll featuring on many lists, except for maybe the most popular poll list (6600 votes or so already). That should save you some work.
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Everyone that says "There's no such thing as a stupid question", has obviously never visited this board.

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/20/2002 1:01:05 AM | Message Detail

Yeah, it was really nice today with only the one list to change. I used the extra time to update the full lists on the website, even though I'm not scheduled to do that until tomorrow. :)

So, the website is now updated. And this is probably the last day to vote in the Upset Poll, for anyone who hasn't. I'll probably be changing it at the end of tomorrow. Additional poll suggestions are still welcome.

I think that's about all I have to say for tonight. Although I would like to express my shock that only 53.5% of the entrants predicted Cloud to win this one. What the heck? The percentage should be higher than that, shouldn't it? It seems Cloud has been underestimated.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: NeoElfboy | Posted: 8/20/2002 1:01:43 AM | Message Detail

Dante over Ryo... ouch. Don't worry... I'm not getting the 4 for this either. I can't ever believe I thought Lara beating Crono made sense. I obviously underestimated those who hate Lara, along with the fact that PC games generally aren't as popular as their console counterparts, along with the fact that Chrono Trigger is an extremely widely-loved game.

*consoles himself with his perfect North Division... if Cloud can make it happen*

Oh, and I may be jumping the gun a bit... but after seeing these numbers, I am definitely feeling that Crono has become the favourite to win his division.

~NeoElfboy
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"Sometimes I think your massive intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon themselves and transform into stat bonuses!" -RM
<VetSCCer>

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/20/2002 1:21:04 AM | Message Detail

Hmm, that's a good point about Crono. Snake has underwhelmed and Crono has overachieved (at least in my opinion). That's going to be one heck of a division final (anyone mind if I count Aeris out already?).

Cool, one of us will have a perfect North Division. Go Mario. :)
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: NeoElfboy | Posted: 8/20/2002 2:30:44 AM | Message Detail

Go Cloud. ^_^

Not that I like him better necessarily, but I've been backing my bracket even in cases which I would never have voted (Duke Nukem over Iori, for instance).

anyone mind if I count Aeris out already?

A little. Maybe I'll be proven horribly wrong, but I believe this one will be reasonably close (10-15% vote gap). Basically, I consider Aeris more popular than either Squall or Knuckles.

And if she wins... well, there will have been bigger upsets IMO. Still, I'd rather not have my East division be totally scrapped, so I'll pull for Snake.

~NeoElfboy
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"Sometimes I think your massive intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon themselves and transform into stat bonuses!" -RM
<VetSCCer>

From: javajim | Posted: 8/20/2002 9:38:51 PM | Message Detail

Poll suggestion, if you haven't done it already: either the character least deserving of being in this contest, or the character that should have been in the contest, but was left out (like Rayman?). This seems to be a popular topic on this board.

From: NeoElfboy | Posted: 8/20/2002 11:43:44 PM | Message Detail

Hmm... the difference between Aeris and Snake is a tad higher than I predicted, for now... still, it's Snake's closest match thus far, and doesn't exactly renew my confidence in him to defeat Crono.

~NeoElfboy
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"Sometimes I think your massive intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon themselves and transform into stat bonuses!" -RM
<VetSCCer>

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/21/2002 12:21:20 AM | Message Detail

Tonight's Stats:

1 - Lara Croft (50:1) - 21571 / 29.13% (74059)
5 - Crono (33:1) - 52488 / 70.87% (74059) - 5541 / 33.1%

Updated Lists:

Top 10 Most Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) (ii) Pikachu vs. Cloud Strife - 75371
2) (iii) Alucard vs. Cloud Strife - 74365
3) (iii) Lara Croft vs. Crono - 74059
4) Cloud Strife vs. Fox McCloud - 73242
5) Solid Snake vs. Squall Leonhart - 71676
6) (ii) Strider Hiryu vs. Link - 71262
7) Link vs. Little Mac - 70585
8) Jill Valentine vs. Kirby - 70376
9) Sephiroth vs. Gabe Logan - 69969
10) Mega Man vs. Ms. Pac-Man - 68296

Top 10 Biggest Vote Getters

1) Mega Man - 63039
2) Sephiroth - 61367
3) (ii) Mega Man - 60914
4) (ii) Cloud Strife - 59926
5) Link - 59509
6) Cloud Strife - 54643
7) (ii) Link - 53992
8) (ii) Sephiroth - 53956
9) Sonic the Hedgehog - 53023
10) (iii) Crono - 52488

Top 10 Hardest Matches to Predict (based on percentage of contest entrants choosing the winner)

1) (ii) Alucard 28.8% vs. Duke Nukem
2) (ii) Bomberman vs. Jill Valentine 32.5%
3) (iii) Lara Croft vs. Crono 33.1%
4) (ii) Scorpion 33.6% vs. Max Payne
5) Morrigan Aensland 42.3% vs. Spyro the Dragon 57.7%
6) Gordon Freeman 56.3% vs. Tina Armstrong 43.7%
7) Abe 49.5% vs. Kyo Kusanagi 50.5%
8) Jill Valentine 50.8% vs. Kirby 49.2%
9) Alucard 51.4% vs. Miles "Tails" Prower 48.6%
10) (ii) Crono 51.8% vs. Dante

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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/21/2002 12:24:52 AM | Message Detail

Sorry this was late. It's been a really busy day for me. And I realize I didn't do the usual match analysis today, but that will have to wait until sometime tomorrow (same with the poll change). I've got just enough left in me to do a minor update of the website and check to see if I'm being slaughtered in the user tourney. I'll catch up after I've had some rest.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/21/2002 12:56:51 AM | Message Detail

javajim: Good suggestions. I particularly like the first one. The second one will be much harded to come up with 5-6 poll answers that would satisfy everyone. Although if you'd like to give it a shot go right ahead. :)

Website's got its update, more to come tomorrow (I'll probably stick the few analysis posts I've recovered in the miscellaneous section when I get a chance). Zzzz...
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: GoldSlime35 | Posted: 8/21/2002 1:14:01 AM | Message Detail

I have a poll idea. It could be what is your record on the easiest or hardest to predict list.

From: Cecil XIX | Posted: 8/21/2002 2:00:54 AM | Message Detail

Excellent Stats, of course. This contest has been surprisingly dramatic.
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- Cecil The Nineteenth. Really.

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/21/2002 10:58:21 AM | Message Detail

GoldSlime35: That would be cool. The only problem is that the lists keep changing. :) The poll would only be able to be up for a short time (depending), but I like the idea.

Okay, the website's been updated with the rest of the stuff and the new poll is up. I'm only going to leave this one up for a day or two (probably) so that I can get to some of the other ideas. The previous two polls are viewable in the archive if you want to see how they turned out.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/21/2002 12:01:46 PM | Message Detail

I'm not sure if anyone other than Jjukil is interested, but I've added the few analysis posts that were recovered to the Miscellaneous section. We could only find 5 of the 11 that were lost, but that's pretty good considering. I may add some of the new stuff to it later, but I wanted to get that up for now. Also, it may be too late, but if anyone else wants to try to find some of the lost posts follow the directions given by Jjukil and myself in some of our previous posts in this topic.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: Samberdog | Posted: 8/21/2002 12:19:22 PM | Message Detail

More great work Solar. Awesome!
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Muse of the Day: If the Flintstones lived in the prehistoric era, than why did they celebrate Christmas and Thanksgiving?

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/21/2002 12:55:06 PM | Message Detail

Ah good, Samberdog is back. :) Now whatever happened to that Who Cares? guy and his company stats? Those were kind of interesting.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/22/2002 12:04:44 AM | Message Detail

Tonight's Results:

11 - Aeris (90:1) - 32702 / 43.46% (75247)
2 - Solid Snake (8:1) - 42545 / 56.54% (75247) - 11317 / 67.5%

Updated Lists:

Top 10 Closest Matches (difference in brackets)

1) (ii) Donkey Kong 51.06% vs. Aya Brea 48.94% - (2.12%)
2) Strider Hiryu 52.57% vs. Raziel 47.43% - (5.14%)
3) Jill Valentine 53.34% vs. Kirby 46.66% - (6.68%)
4) Alucard 54.32% vs. Miles "Tails" Prower 45.68% - (8.64%)
5) Pikachu 54.41% vs. PaRappa The Rapper 45.59% - (8.82%)
6) Tidus 55.46% vs. Claire Redfield 44.54% - (10.92%)
7) (iii) Aeris 43.46% vs. Solid Snake 56.54% - (13.08%)
8) Kyo Kusanagi 57.79% vs. Abe 42.21% - (15.58%)
9) (ii) Samus Aran 57.85% vs. Ryu 42.15% - (15.70%)
10) (ii) Bomberman 42.03% vs. Jill Valentine 57.97% - (15.94%)

Top 10 Smallest Vote Gaps (difference in brackets)

1) (ii) Donkey Kong 31798 vs. Aya Brea 30478 - (1320)
2) Strider Hiryu 30662 vs. Raziel 27661 - (3001)
3) Jill Valentine 37539 vs. Kirby 32837 - (4702)
4) Pikachu 30711 vs. PaRappa The Rapper 25736 - (4975)
5) Alucard 33516 vs. Miles "Tails" Prower 28190 - (5326)
6) Tidus 35004 vs. Claire Redfield 28117 - (6887)
7) Kyo Kusanagi 31160 vs. Abe 22760 - (8400)
8) Serious Sam 32301 vs. Mr. Driller 22696 - (9605)
9) (iii) Aeris 32702 vs. Solid Snake 42545 - (9843)
10) (ii) Sonic the Hedgehog 33602 vs. Tidus 23516 - (10086)

Top 10 Most Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) (ii) Pikachu vs. Cloud Strife - 75371
2) (iii) Aeris vs. Solid Snake - 75247
3) (iii) Alucard vs. Cloud Strife - 74365
4) (iii) Lara Croft vs. Crono - 74059
5) Cloud Strife vs. Fox McCloud - 73242
6) Solid Snake vs. Squall Leonhart - 71676
7) (ii) Strider Hiryu vs. Link - 71262
8) Link vs. Little Mac - 70585
9) Jill Valentine vs. Kirby - 70376
10) Sephiroth vs. Gabe Logan - 69969

Top 10 Most Impressive Losers (by votes)

1) Kirby - 32837
2) (iii) Aeris - 32702
3) (ii) Aya Brea - 30478
4) (ii) Ryu - 28630
5) Miles "Tails" Prower - 28190
6) Claire Redfield - 28117
7) Raziel - 27661
8) (ii) Bomberman - 27432
9) (ii) Knuckles the Echidna - 26748
10) PaRappa The Rapper - 25736

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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com
Stats Discussion: http://s1.cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=3916637

From: Ringworm | Posted: 8/22/2002 12:08:14 AM | Message Detail

Tonights will probably affect a few lists too, especially if it stays this close. Dunno why I picked Pac-man today, it wasn't the smartest choice. Guess I'll stay on 66 for even longer then (I'm probably going to get three wrong in a row here, which is not good.)
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Everyone that says "There's no such thing as a stupid question", has obviously never visited this board.

From: Samberdog | Posted: 8/22/2002 12:14:10 AM | Message Detail

Yep, I'm back ^_^

I know it's been said before, but, by the looks of it, Snake is going to have a tough time with Crono. Beating a FFVII character is quite an achievement, but I think it was a little closer than most expected. Snake can probably take Crono, but I no longer think he has a real chance to win it all anymore. But we'll see.

PacMan VS Scorpion does look like it will make some more work for you... I hope PacMan can come back, but I'm doubtful. Two 3rd round losses... blah.
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Muse of the Day: If the Flintstones lived in the prehistoric era, than why did they celebrate Christmas and Thanksgiving?

From: CaoCon | Posted: 8/22/2002 12:16:00 AM | Message Detail

bump

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"I will gladly put my life on the line." Taishi Ci DW3

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/22/2002 12:22:07 AM | Message Detail

Ugh, another long day today. I missed the analyses again so that's 3 to catch up on tomorrow. I think... did I? I'm too tired to even remember.

The website's been given its scheduled update, and the poll needs voters. That's all from me until I've had some rest.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: GoldSlime35 | Posted: 8/22/2002 1:06:22 AM | Message Detail

You can do the easiest to predict list because it isn't possible for that list to change anymore. And you can do the hardest to predict list after the contest is over.

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/22/2002 1:09:14 PM | Message Detail

Some quick Alucard vs. Cloud analysis.

Another impressive victory for Cloud. Alucard showed some strength in getting this far, but Cloud was just too much for him.

Much to no one's surprise, the voters really came out for Cloud again. This match ranks 2nd on the most popular polls list, with 1st and 3rd position being taken by Cloud's second and first round matches (at the time - this has since changed). If Cloud's in the poll you can be sure a ton of people are going to vote.

Of course, Cloud received the lion's share of those votes (as usual). However, his almost 52000 votes was 3000 lower than his first round match and 8000 fewer than his second, probably owing to the fight put up by Alucard. Alucard's vote count dropped to less than 23000 after hovering around the 35000 mark for his first 2 battles.

With 70% of the vote taken, Cloud's average percentage is around 75% now. Alucard on the other hand has an average of just less that 50% of the vote, thanks to a tough battle against Tails, and a not so impressive victory over Duke, and only 30% this time. Better luck next year.

Biggest surprise of this battle? It has to be that only 53.5% of the entrants got it right. Considering how strong Cloud has shown himself to be, I'm not sure who half the people were picking to beat him. Fox, Tails, Pikachu, Alucard, Duke? I guess there was some decent competition in his half of the division, but I still would have expected that number to be a little higher. 80% had Cloud after the first round, 70% after the second, and now 54% after the third. Expect that number to be slashed again if Cloud can win his next match.

And I don't think I need to mention it, but this win sets up the much-anticipated divisional championship between Mario and Cloud. Destined to be one of the most significant matches of the whole tournament, this bout will undoubtably affect a lot of brackets dramatically. Coming in I'd say that Cloud has the advantage, but it's never a good idea to count Mario out. Should be a good one.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: VK2099 | Posted: 8/22/2002 1:53:49 PM | Message Detail

Great stats. I've beeen waiting for rd 2 stats since Mario vs DK.
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"The only thing that comes to a sleeping man is dreams."
- Tupac Shakur

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/22/2002 4:20:11 PM | Message Detail

Some brief Lara vs. Crono analysis.

Crono continues to impress the unbelievers. This time his victim was the number 1 seeded Lara Croft. The buxom tomb raider had a pretty good run up to this point, but she was even less trouble for Crono than Dante had been last round.

So, our first number 1 seed has fallen. That would be particularly significant if not for the fact that Lara was probably seeded a little too high. Still, it's notable.

Crono has averaged about 71% of the vote combined for his matches, which is almost exactly what he got this time around. That's not too shabby at all. He should definitely be able to put up a decent fight against the underperforming Snake next round. Lara ends up with an average of just around 53%. A number 1 seed probably should have been able to do a little better than that.

Crono joins the 50000 vote club for the first time, with 52000 of 'em. He almost made it in the first round when he had 49000, but dropped farther back against Dante with only 44000. Lara's total has been continually decreasing, starting with a moderately impressive 45000 and dropping by 9000 in the second round and another 14000 to this round's count of only 22000.

The biggest surprise of this match was the total vote count, which managed to reach 3rd place on the Top 10 list (at the time). Pretty amazing considering Crono's highest previous match was ranked 16th (against Dante) and Lara's previous high was 20th (against Chop Chop). Where did all these voters come from? This is also the first vote total to ever surpass one of Cloud's matches. Was there a lot of interesting in this particular matchup, or are the third round matches getting more popular in general? We'll have to wait and see.

Only 33.1% of the entrants picked Crono to win, which was pretty much to be expected. Only 50% had him advancing past Dante, so it's not surprising to see another chunk of that fail to predict his match against an opponent with the kind of seeding and odds that Lara had. Still, it does rank as the third hardest match to predict. Might've been nice to see a few more people than that get it right, but it certainly doesn't rank as one of the bigger surprises.

Crono will meet Snake in the divisional final, which could prove to be a pivotal match. I'm sure a lot of people will have Snake making it this far while only a few (33%) have Crono. If Crono were to win again it would wreak havoc with plenty of brackets. Can he topple the heavily favored Solid Snake? Won't be long until we know.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: MMXcalibur | Posted: 8/22/2002 4:31:30 PM | Message Detail

Very impressive solarshadow. *claps*
I hope Mega Man takes care of Sephiroth.
*looks at sig*
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(>^_^)-( ()===========<D <(0_o'^) ---KIRBY X-BUSTER!!
MEGA MAN(rd. 3):Vote against over-rated villains!!!

From: Cid | Posted: 8/22/2002 4:35:02 PM | Message Detail

Great work, indeed.

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/23/2002 12:00:55 AM | Message Detail

Tonight's Results:

1 - Pac-Man (60:1) - 28936 / 42.26% (68475)
5 - Scorpion (150:1) - 39539 / 57.74% (68475) - 2906 / 17.3%

Updated Lists:

Top 10 Closest Matches (difference in brackets)

1) (ii) Donkey Kong 51.06% vs. Aya Brea 48.94% - (2.12%)
2) Strider Hiryu 52.57% vs. Raziel 47.43% - (5.14%)
3) Jill Valentine 53.34% vs. Kirby 46.66% - (6.68%)
4) Alucard 54.32% vs. Miles "Tails" Prower 45.68% - (8.64%)
5) Pikachu 54.41% vs. PaRappa The Rapper 45.59% - (8.82%)
6) Tidus 55.46% vs. Claire Redfield 44.54% - (10.92%)
7) (iii) Aeris 43.46% vs. Solid Snake 56.54% - (13.08%)
8) (iii) Pac-Man 42.26% vs. Scorpion 57.74% - (15.48%)
9) Kyo Kusanagi 57.79% vs. Abe 42.21% - (15.58%)
10) (ii) Samus Aran 57.85% vs. Ryu 42.15% - (15.70%)

Top 10 Most Impressive Losers (by votes)

1) Kirby - 32837
2) (iii) Aeris - 32702
3) (ii) Aya Brea - 30478
4) (iii) Pac-Man - 28936
5) (ii) Ryu - 28630
5) Miles "Tails" Prower - 28190
6) Claire Redfield - 28117
7) Raziel - 27661
8) (ii) Bomberman - 27432
9) (ii) Knuckles the Echidna - 26748
10) PaRappa The Rapper - 25736

Top 10 Hardest Matches to Predict (based on percentage of contest entrants choosing the winner)

1) (iii) Pac-Man vs. Scorpion 17.3%
2) (ii) Alucard 28.8% vs. Duke Nukem
3) (ii) Bomberman vs. Jill Valentine 32.5%
4) (iii) Lara Croft vs. Crono 33.1%
5) (ii) Scorpion 33.6% vs. Max Payne
6) Morrigan Aensland 42.3% vs. Spyro the Dragon 57.7%
7) Gordon Freeman 56.3% vs. Tina Armstrong 43.7%
8) Abe 49.5% vs. Kyo Kusanagi 50.5%
9) Jill Valentine 50.8% vs. Kirby 49.2%
10) Alucard 51.4% vs. Miles "Tails" Prower 48.6%

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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: Samberdog | Posted: 8/23/2002 12:22:03 AM | Message Detail

Wow. That was a tough match to predict. I guess I shouldn't feel too bad for missing it.

More good work. And the website keeps looking better and better.
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Muse of the Day: If a man is talking in the forest and there's no woman there to hear him, is he still wrong?

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/23/2002 12:55:06 AM | Message Detail

MMXcalibur: Thank you very much, I appreciate it. And it's always nice to see one of the board's most popular and respected users visiting the stats topic. :) As for the Mega Man/Sephiroth duel, I'm afraid to even speculate on it. This is one of the few times I've actually chickened out from making even any vague predictions. :)

Samberdog: Yeah, we knew this one was going to be nasty if Scorpion won, but still, wow. Only half the people that picked Scorpion last time picked him again this time. I suppose it could have been worse though. I can only imagine what the number would be like if he won his next match. But I really don't think he'll beat Link, so I guess we'll never know. :)

The website's been updated. I even updated the Upsets section, even though I wasn't scheduled to do that. Notice who the only second and third round odds-based upsets belong to? Pretty impressive. As for the analyses, I got 2 of the 3 done today, which means it'll have to be another 2 for tomorrow. I don't plan to stay behind with those much longer, it's just that I've been so busy lately it couldn't be helped. Also, I'll probably change the poll tomorrow. I know it hasn't got very many votes yet but that's probably because it's not the most interesting poll. :) Plus, I've got a batch of suggestions to get through so I don't want to leave it up too long. So vote while you've got the chance. That's all from me tonight.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: NeoElfboy | Posted: 8/23/2002 3:13:17 AM | Message Detail

Glad to see you're catching up with the analyses. And the next two should both be very interesting, each in their own way... the Snake/Aeris match, featuring the Contest's just-shy-of-most impressive loser, and the Scorpion/Pac-Man match, which it seems has tripped up just about everybody.

Today's a bit of a down day for the Contest, I think... this is possibly the last obvious match left (though I don't give Scorp much more chance against Link than I gave Jill). But tomorrow, we'll have the hard-to-predict Samus/Sonic affair, followed by the tournament's first true blockbuster. And from there on, it's the final week. Or, for most contestants, where the real money is going to be made. It's scary to think that half the total points that can be achieved will come from those final seven matches. This will make or break everybody's entry, make no mistake about it...

*is licking his wounds after Pac's loss dropped him to the 91st percentile*

~NeoElfboy
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"Sometimes I think your massive intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon themselves and transform into stat bonuses!" -RM
<VetSCCer>

From: dimeat | Posted: 8/23/2002 11:18:33 AM | Message Detail

Yay, the correct Scorpion position moved me up to the Top50. I'm at 33, tied for 29 :)

From: Yesmar | Posted: 8/23/2002 1:49:41 PM | Message Detail

Well Crono's and Snake's victories completely messed up my bracket. I was regretting having Lara and Aeris win anyway, but I should take some consolation in that I predicted half of the upset victories correct (including Scorpion's.) Good show on Aeris' part though. Did a lot better then I expected.

Also, it would be cool on solarshadow's site if he did how the contest would have happened if the seeding had been completely accurate. You could only predict it up to the final four though.
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"Here's something else Satan created, Japanimation."--Mike Nelson on MST3K

From: Ringworm | Posted: 8/23/2002 8:53:01 PM | Message Detail

I'd say todays poll will be number 1 in most popular - over 73600 votes already, with over 2 hours left. Seems like theres been a few double (or more) votes for Link (that's why I think its so much higher anyway). Could be wrong, but it seems weird its going to have at least 5000 more than the next most popular poll. Maybe Link should be disqualified due to cheating with Jill winning by default? I guess I can hope anyway.

I'm also interested in the analyses, they are good to read and always seem to bring up stuff I didn't realise.
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Everyone that says "There's no such thing as a stupid question", has obviously never visited this board.

From: Jjukil | Posted: 8/23/2002 10:14:05 PM | Message Detail

Actually, someone else pointed out in another topic that the link from Penny Arcade probably jacked up the vote count. I'll agree to that. After all, a week ago or so they posted a link directly to the FAQ page for Moonbase Commander...and it showed up on the Top 10 FAQ pages list the next day. (It's fallen out of the Top 50 since then. =P )

Of course, the interlinking affected PA, too--earlier it was nearly impossible to access the comic, I heard. (I also read a comment by Aetherspoon at that point that said Gamefaqs has a miniature Slashdot effect. It made me chuckle; I wonder if he knows about the PA effect. <g> )

Question: Where, exactly, is the stat site's poll? I've been looking around, but can't find it anywhere.

Thanks, Jjukil

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/23/2002 10:27:38 PM | Message Detail

I'm also interested in the analyses, they are good to read and always seem to bring up stuff I didn't realise.

Good to hear. When compiling the stats I often notice little things that are interesting or notable so I try to point them out.

Question: Where, exactly, is the stat site's poll? I've been looking around, but can't find it anywhere.

Usually it's on the right side of the main page. Occasionally, when Bravenet (the poll's host) isn't cooperating, it's nowhere to be found. Try again later if it doesn't appear. That's a bit frustrating, but it doesn't happen too often.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: marsman57 | Posted: 8/23/2002 10:48:59 PM | Message Detail

Hey, sorry I haven't posted lately. I haven't been able to get on a computer hardly any because of problems getting a wireless card for college. I'm home for the weekend though so that means lots of online fun. Serious stat props for solarshadow as usual. I did check my cache btw, but nothing about the missing pages. Sorry!
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"Got a bad case of the Mondays? That's why Lord Chaos invented CAT COFFEE!" -- 8-bit theater

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/23/2002 11:05:14 PM | Message Detail

Some brief Aeris vs. Solid Snake analysis.

After a couple of decent yet less than impressive victories against Squall and Knuckles, this battle was considered to be the real test for Snake. He won the match, but has he proven himself to be a force to be reckoned with in the later rounds? Probably not.

Snake's vote percentage has been continually declining, from 65% to 61% and now down to 57% against Aeris. It's true that he's had some comparably difficult opponents, but he hasn't been showing the kind of strength that one of the "elite five" should be. If he's only able to beat Aeris by that much, what chance does he have against a more popular Square character like Crono or Cloud? Or am I underestimating Aeris' popularity?

Aeris had a good run, beating Kasumi by a reasonable margin and then blowing out Tina in the second round (still the 12th biggest blowout). She joined the 50000 vote club in that match, which has only 8 members (13 if you include 2-time and 3-time members - Snake is not a member). And against Snake she managed 32702 votes, good enough for 2nd on the Top 10 Most Impressive Losers list. Aside from Kirby she is the only other losing character to achieve a vote count higher than a winning character (7 of them, to be exact). That's not bad at all. Perhaps she stood a better chance against Snake than I thought.

What impressed me most about this match was its vote total. Over 75000 total votes were cast, good enough for an amazing 2nd place on the Most Popular Polls list. This is only the 2nd time one of Cloud's matches has been topped. I guess it speaks for the popularity of the two characters, although there seems to be a trend of third round matches drawing more voters as well.

The next match for Snake is against the overachieving Crono. Before the tournament started I would have said Snake was easily the favorite to win this one, but now I'd give the edge to Crono. Either way it should be a good one, and expect it to be close.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/23/2002 11:44:36 PM | Message Detail

Some quick Pac-Man vs. Scorpion analysis.

Let's just start with the obvious, shall we? This match was brutally hard to predict. A staggeringly low 17.3% of contest entrants picked this one correctly, making it by far the hardest match to predict of the tournament so far. Why did so many people get it wrong? Well, keep in mind that only 33.6% thought Scorpion would get this far in the first place. The majority (likely) had him losing to Max Payne in the second round. Pac-Man was no slouch of an opponent either with plenty of experience in the video game industry and a lot of old school charm. But somehow Scorpion managed to emerge victorious on both occasions and surprise a whole lot of people.

Scorpion has defied the odds yet again. There has only been 1 odds-based upset in the third round and there was only 1 in the second round - both by Scorpion. With 150:1 odds Scorpion took down the favored Max Payne (80:1) and now Pac-Man (60:1). In all the other second and third round matches the character with the better odds has won. I'd say that's an impressive stat. Why did the entrants underestimate Scorpion so badly? Or how has he overachieved by so much? I can't answer that, I picked him to win both matches. ;)

Pac-Man is our second #1 seeded casualty. Only Mario and Sonic remain (for now). And Pac-Man didn't really live up to that seeding. He didn't even come close to impressing anyone until his very last match. His first battle against Goemon got him over 40000 votes, but his second against Kyo earned him 7th place on the Least Impressive Winners list. However, his loss to Scorpion was respectable, and good for 4th on the Most Impressive Losers list (2nd highest of the third round, as well). I'd like to thank Pac-Man for coming out, but his legendary status and great contributions to the video game industry just weren't enough to carry him through the tournament. We salute your efforts, Pac-Man.

At 68000 total votes this match was a little more typical than the last 3, which strayed into the 74000+ range. Still, it was the 11th most popular poll. I'm going to attribute that to the apparent increased interest in the third round. All of the matches have seen a jump in voters, with this one probably being slightly less popular due to the slightly less popular characters involved. We'll see if that holds true when the results of the rest of the matches come in.

Scorpion's been coasting along at about the 40000 vote level for each of his matches, which is not bad at all. The battle against Pac-Man was certainly his hardest yet, but it's nothing compared to what he'll face against Link next round. It's been a good Cinderella run for the yellow ninja, but I think it's about to come to an end.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: ChOcObO HuNtEr | Posted: 8/23/2002 11:47:18 PM | Message Detail

all i can say is - nice
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0 0:0?!!! Damn Chocobo minigame!

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/24/2002 1:27:36 AM | Message Detail

Well, it looks like the next poll isn't going up anytime soon. Which is a shame, because I was all ready to update the stats in record time. Oh well, I'm giving up for the night. Enjoy the new analyses for now and I'll be back with the usual updates sometime tomorrow (if the new poll's up by then...).

Speaking of new polls, the stats website has a new one. Well, it's more of a variation on an old one, really. Have a look and have a vote if you're so inclined. The previous polls can all be found in the poll archive if you're interested in how any turned out (follow the link on the results page).
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: Notti | Posted: 8/24/2002 1:49:00 AM | Message Detail

Imagine if this poll stayed up all day tomorrow? Might taint the stat pages. So here are the stats as they were the last time I updated my browser's cache:

The Great GameFAQs Character Battle

South Division Semifinals: Jill Valentine vs. Link

Jill Valentine 27.27% 22379

Link 72.73% 59678

TOTAL VOTES 82057
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•~• •¦• Nottingham •~• •¦•
‡‡ "Never gonna get me. Never gonna get me. Never gonna get me I'm the..." ‡‡ http://www.infidels.org/~meta/getalife/

From: broodwars | Posted: 8/24/2002 1:51:48 AM | Message Detail

Quite frankly, I think the stats of the post above me should stick. The votes that put Link over 6000 came after the 24-hour time limit expired...and I still think there's something fishy about how quickly those votes came...
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"Guns don't kill people! I DO!"- WarCraft III's Dwarven Rifleman
"Your pain shall be Legendary!"- WarCraft III's Arthas

From: Jjukil | Posted: 8/24/2002 2:00:43 AM | Message Detail

Well, to me, this result was already "tainted" by the PA flood. So these extra hours don't make much of a difference. If anything, they just confirm that something was awry.

Not that I'm saying PA readers shouldn't be allowed to vote, or anything (I am one)...I'm just saying that it's likely to be a one-time occurrance. If all of them came back every day to vote from now on, I wouldn't mind at all =)

Thanks, Jjukil

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/24/2002 2:03:16 AM | Message Detail

Yeah, that's what the numbers looked like at around midnight. Thanks for posting them, Notti.

Looks like another asterisk for this match. Link wouldn't normally have broken 60000. Of course, this match probably wouldn't have reached 80000 total votes without the link over from Penny-Arcade, so there are a number of uncontrollable factors altering this one. Oh well, I just hope CJayC gets the next poll up soon. Sonic was screwed over last time with a shortened poll. I'll feel sorry for him if it happens again.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/24/2002 2:43:18 AM | Message Detail

Tonight's Results:

3 - Jill Valentine (180:1) - 23342 / 27.37% (85273)
2 - Link (9:1) - 61931 / 72.63% (85273) - 11569 / 69.0%

Updated Lists:

Top 10 Biggest Vote Gaps (difference in brackets)

1) Mega Man 63039 vs. Ms. Pac-Man 5257 - (57782)
2) (ii) Mega Man 60914 vs. Serious Sam 5414 - (55500)
3) Sephiroth 61367 vs. Gabe Logan 8602 - (52765)
4) Link 59509 vs. Little Mac 11076 - (48433)
5) (ii) Pikachu 15445 vs. Cloud Strife 59926 - (44481)
6) Sonic the Hedgehog 53023 vs. Pitfall Harry 11292 - (41731)
7) (ii) Sephiroth 53956 vs. Crash Bandicoot 12235 - (41721)
8) (iii) Mario 52333 vs. Donkey Kong 11507 - (40826)
9) (iii) Jill Valentine 23342 vs. Link 61931 - (38589)
10) Knuckles the Echidna 49964 vs. Akira Yuki 12057 - (37907)

Top 10 Most Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) (iii) Jill Valentine vs. Link - 85273
2) (ii) Pikachu vs. Cloud Strife - 75371
3) (iii) Aeris vs. Solid Snake - 75247
4) (iii) Alucard vs. Cloud Strife - 74365
5) (iii) Lara Croft vs. Crono - 74059
6) Cloud Strife vs. Fox McCloud - 73242
7) Solid Snake vs. Squall Leonhart - 71676
8) (ii) Strider Hiryu vs. Link - 71262
9) Link vs. Little Mac - 70585
10) Jill Valentine vs. Kirby - 70376

Top 10 Biggest Vote Getters

1) Mega Man - 63039
2) (iii) Link - 61931
3) Sephiroth - 61367
4) (ii) Mega Man - 60914
5) (ii) Cloud Strife - 59926
6) Link - 59509
7) Cloud Strife - 54643
8) (ii) Link - 53992
9) (ii) Sephiroth - 53956
10) Sonic the Hedgehog - 53023

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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/24/2002 3:27:01 AM | Message Detail

Okay, the next poll came up just in time. So there's tonight's stats for you. The website's been updated too. Don't forget to vote in the new website poll.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: NeoElfboy | Posted: 8/24/2002 4:12:07 AM | Message Detail

*votes Snake*

Pity about today's tainted results. Glad to see the next match is up, and also glad to see it's one that, as of right now, can't yet be called. As this is an auto-loss for me, I am glad that either way it goes, it'll screw up a lot of people. Though I'm stilling pulling for Samus.

~NeoElfboy
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"Sometimes I think your massive intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon themselves and transform into stat bonuses!" -RM
<VetSCCer>

From: Jjukil | Posted: 8/24/2002 4:18:32 AM | Message Detail

Heh. Well, Link's extra boosts may have brought him into the 60000 votes club...but there's still one consolation:

Even with the extra two hours and PA voters, he still couldn't manage the highest vote total.

Go Blue Bomber! =)

Thanks, Jjukil

From: Samberdog | Posted: 8/24/2002 12:05:53 PM | Message Detail

Yes Jjukil, but Link wasn't facing Ms. Pacman. 60000 votes against the Heroine of RE, a character that took out both Kirby and Bomberman, is quite impressive.

^
Sorry, I just need to stand up for my boy Link, and we can't get too attached to Megaman, his match is tomorrow.

Crazy poll though, did anyone find out why it wasn't updated on time? If an influx of PA readers did come to this site, it didn't seem to change the vote ratio for Jill/Link. The percentages seemed to stay pretty much the same, which is interesting.

More great work! Scorpion getting this far is pretty unbelievable, good job picking him to do it. I think today's Samus/Sonic match (Go Sonic!) should be another one of the hardest to predict, but that's pretty obvious.

Keep it up!
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Muse of the Day: If electricity comes from electrons, there where does morality come from?

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