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Summer 2002 Contest

FULL STATS - Summer 2002 Contest (Updated Nightly)

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From: jayman951 | Posted: 9/1/2002 11:57:27 PM | Message Detail

Well, 151 is great. I hope CjayC puts the name up of the people that had Link winning the contest. They diserve some recognition. And a Top Score list for like the top 100 would be cool, Im in it i hope.
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THE GREAT LINK WINS Record: 52-11 (151 pts)
Proud Member of The Hylian Knights

From: solarshadow | Posted: 9/2/2002 12:18:39 AM | Message Detail

Tonight's Results:

1 - Mario (6:1) - 36796 / 37.47% (98211)
2 - Link (9:1) - 61415 / 62.53% (98211) - 2140 / 12.8%

Updated Lists:

Top 10 Most Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) (iv) Mario vs. Cloud Strife - 129703
2) (v) Mario vs. Crono - 107547
3) (v) Link vs. Sephiroth - 102870
4) (iv) Crono vs. Solid Snake - 99214
5) (vi) Mario vs. Link - 98211
6) (iii) Mega Man vs. Sephiroth - 97357
7) (iv) Samus Aran vs. Sephiroth - 97224
8) (iv) Scorpion vs. Link - 91535
9) (iii) Jill Valentine vs. Link - 85273
10) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Samus Aran - 83912

Top 10 Biggest Vote Getters

1) (iv) Link - 69544
2) (iv) Mario - 64990
3) (iv) Cloud Strife - 64713
4) Mega Man - 63039
5) (iii) Link - 61931
6) (vi) Link - 61415
7) Sephiroth - 61367
8) (ii) Mega Man - 60914
9) (ii) Cloud Strife - 59926
10) Link - 59509

Top 10 Most Impressive Losers (by votes)

1) (iv) Cloud Strife - 64713
2) (v) Crono - 53716
3) (iii) Mega Man - 48185
4) (iv) Solid Snake - 46697
5) (iv) Samus Aran - 46047
6) (v) Sephiroth - 44597
7) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog - 41939
8) (vi) Mario - 36796
9) Kirby - 32837
10) (iii) Aeris - 32702

Top 10 Most Even Matches (based on the odds, ratio in italics)

1) (v) Link (9:1) vs. Sephiroth (9:1) - 1.0
2) (ii) Crono (33:1) vs. Dante (36:1) - 1.1
3) Ryo Hazuki (250:1) vs. Guybrush Threepwood (300:1) - 1.2
3) Bomberman (250:1) vs. Kane (300:1) - 1.2
5) Terry Bogard (200:1) vs. Aya Brea (250:1) - 1.3
6) (iii) Samus Aran (36:1) vs. Sonic the Hedgehog (45:1) - 1.3
7) (ii) Jill Valentine (180:1) vs. Bomberman (250:1) - 1.4
8) (vi) Mario (6:1) vs. Link (9:1) - 1.5
9) (iii) Crono (33:1) vs. Lara Croft (50:1) - 1.5
10) (ii) Samus Aran (36:1) vs. Ryu (55:1) - 1.5

Top 10 Hardest Matches to Predict (based on percentage of contest entrants choosing the winner)

1) (vi) Mario vs. Link 12.8%
2) (iv) Crono 14.6% vs. Solid Snake
3) (iii) Pac-Man vs. Scorpion 17.3%
4) (ii) Alucard 28.8% vs. Duke Nukem
5) (v) Link 30.6% vs. Sephiroth
6) (v) Mario 31.0% vs. Crono
7) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Samus Aran 31.8%
8) (ii) Bomberman vs. Jill Valentine 32.5%
9) (iii) Lara Croft vs. Crono 33.1%
10) (ii) Scorpion 33.6% vs. Max Payne

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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: Jjukil | Posted: 9/2/2002 12:28:07 AM | Message Detail

One last time, eh, Solar? =)

Tonight's pick for most interesting stat is:

Top 10 Most Impressive Losers (by votes)
8) (vi) Mario - 36796

Makes him look pretty substandard for a finalist. =P That little VI note is very important.

Looks like your work is just about done. Good luck polishing off the site during all of tonight's craziness. *tries vainly to update his own*
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http://members.aol.com/Jjukil
The Great Gamefaqs Character Battle: A Look Back (Latest Update: 9-1-02)

From: NeoElfboy | Posted: 9/2/2002 12:37:45 AM | Message Detail

Yes, it's surprising that Mario was such a comparatively unimpressive loser. The second least impressive loser of the final nine matches...

Another pick for interesting stat is the total number of votes. Rather low for the final, I'd say. Should we blame the fact that the final was Nintendo/Nintendo, and hence anti-climactic to many, for the fact that it fell over 30,000 votes shy of the record Mario/Cloud? Or should we blame the fact that it was never even close? Maybe a bit of both.

And a third amusing note... Link's championship-winning vote total fell several thousand short of Cloud's final blaze of glory. The Hylian couldn't match the SOLDIER reject's vote total against the man in red, yet he succeeded where Cloud did not (and handilly, at that). That's quite surprising.

Of course, it's only fitting that Link still rules that Top Ten list, thanks to the Scorpion match.

~NeoElfboy
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"Sometimes I think your massive intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon themselves and transform into stat bonuses!" -RM
<VetSCCer>

From: solarshadow | Posted: 9/2/2002 12:55:22 AM | Message Detail

I blame both of those reasons for the low vote total. Probably the first more than the second though. Not sure.

The most interesting stat to me was this one:

Top 10 Hardest Matches to Predict
1) (vi) Mario vs. Link 12.8%

I really didn't think it would be that low. More than half of the people that had Link getting to the final thought he would lose. I expected more of those would be riding Link all the way. Maybe the rest had him losing to Mario. That was probably the biggest chunk.

The website is partially updated. Still some stuff like the Contest Averages and a reformatted Complete Full Lists section to polish off. So look for those updates over the next little while. Also, last chance to vote in the third place poll. I'll be closing it shortly (but what will I put in its place?).
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: King Morgoth | Posted: 9/2/2002 1:05:21 AM | Message Detail

Hey Solar! I've finally completed the Tournament Final report, go take a look if you have some time.
http://www.geocities.com/kingmorgoth/summercontest/index.html

Feel free to take some of the files to put them on your site or link to my site from yours, so that the people who could be interested can see this.

I don't know if I'll come back to this board tomorrow (probably but I'm not sure) and I'm going to sleep soon so, to whomever I've met here (I won't start naming everyone because I'm sure I would forget someone :/), it's been nice to talk to you guys and I hope we'll meet again someday.......maybe when CJayC stops having nightmares! ;)

Have a good time until then,

King Morgoth
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"Everything gold does not glitter
Not all those who wander are lost"

From: javajim | Posted: 9/2/2002 1:35:00 AM | Message Detail

Solarshadow, congratulations on keeping up with all the stats. There was a lot of work involved, and I'm sure it's appreciated by many. Best Regards! J

From: Haste2 | Posted: 9/2/2002 1:35:44 AM | Message Detail

I'll just give some awards that aren't really based on statistics...well, some of them are.

Biggest surprise: Crono
Most disappointing: Er...Ryu?
Easiest bracket: South Division
Most difficult bracket: West Division
Least popular character for how far they got: Scorpion
Biggest Blowout: Mega Man
2nd Biggest Blowout: Mega Man ;)
Closest match: Samus vs. Sonic
2nd Closest match: Mario vs. Cloud
Biggest score screwer: Solid Snake vs. Crono

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"PokéTail, I choose you!"
</television censor>

From: solarshadow | Posted: 9/2/2002 2:14:14 AM | Message Detail

Oops, forgot to update the Combined Top 10 Lists for the final time. Well, they've been updated now. Still more updates to come (these full lists are taking forever).

javajim: Thanks man, I really appreciate it. And thanks for supporting my topic and for your suggestions. I'm glad you enjoyed the stats. :)
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: solarshadow | Posted: 9/2/2002 4:06:53 AM | Message Detail

Well, the Complete Full Lists have been completely reformatted (a monumental undertaking, I assure you). Which leaves me with no energy left to update the contest averages. So that will have to wait for tomorrow (something to look forward to). And I don't think anyone's still around, so I'm probably just talking to myself anyway. :)

King Morgoth: Those graphs are amazing. I dub thee deputy stats freak. ;) I'll be sure to put some of that stuff on my site and also link to yours when I update tomorrow. Very cool.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: Chuckobo | Posted: 9/2/2002 4:08:54 AM | Message Detail

well... i guess that was a pretty sweet contest

finished with 60 points... lol
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"What I have shown you is the reality... What you remember, that is the illusion..." - Sephiroth, FF7

From: Samberdog | Posted: 9/2/2002 10:30:56 AM | Message Detail

Well, it's over. It's really too bad the final couldn't have been closer, but it seems from what people were saying on the board that Link benefited from most of the anti-Nintendo and Squaresoft votes.

Still though, we shouldn't discredit Link. He really did deserve this win. He blazed past all his competition and barely flinched in his matched against Sephiroth. He had the highest vote count of the tournament. His path to the win was as spectacular as could be. Link had a lot of things going for him, he stars in and extremely popular and (IMO) the best series to grace videogames. He's both old and new-school. He's a bad ass with his sword and shield, but also a true, chivalrous hero. It's really not surprising that he won, when you think about it. I thought the final match was going to be even harder to predict. It's amazing that 13% chose Link to win it all. I wonder how many chose each character to take it.

Although I had it in my bracket, a Nintendo/Nintendo bracket really was an accomplishment on this site. Early in this contest, Square characters were smacking everyone around. I am glad it happened though, and the picture for the matchup says why.
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I've been SHINE GOTTEN !!
Shine Count: 55

From: solarshadow | Posted: 9/2/2002 4:31:22 PM | Message Detail

Contest Averages are posted. I'm thinking about reformatting it somehow to make it easier to read, and I still need to do a little more error checking, but it's up. I found one minor mistake: I forgot to include the total votes from the Duke/Iori match in one of the stats. That's been fixed. It also means that everytime I've posted the amount of total votes cast in the contest, it's been off by 52874. Oops. :) So, the grand total number of votes cast during the entire contest is 4,306,208. That's a lot.

-CONTEST AVERAGES-

Average Number of Votes Received By The Winning Character

First Round Avg - 41682 - 69.2%
Second Round Avg - 43440 - 67.6%
Third Round Avg - 48971 - 62.9%
Fourth Round Avg - 59557 - 57.0%
Fifth Round Avg - 56052 - 53.3%
Sixth Round Avg - 61415 - 62.5%
Overall Avg - 44959 - 65.8%

Average Number of Votes Received By The Losing Character

First Round Avg - 18590 - 30.8%
Second Round Avg - 20852 - 32.4%
Third Round Avg - 28845 - 37.1%
Fourth Round Avg - 44862 - 43.0%
Fifth Round Avg - 49157 - 46.7%
Sixth Round Avg - 36796 - 37.5%
Overall Avg - 23394 - 34.2%

Average Number of Total Votes Per Match

First Round Avg - 60272
Second Round Avg - 64292
Third Round Avg - 77816
Fourth Round Avg - 104419
Fifth Round Avg - 105209
Sixth Round Avg - 98211
Overall Avg - 68353

Average Win Margin

First Round Avg - 23092 - 38.3%
Second Round Avg - 22588 - 35.2%
Third Round Avg - 20126 - 27.6%
Fourth Round Avg - 14695 - 15.9%
Fifth Round Avg - 6895 - 6.6%
Sixth Round Avg - 24619 - 25.1%
Overall Avg - 21565 - 31.5%

Average Number of Contest Entrants Predicting Each Match Correctly (out of 16764 total entrants)

First Round Avg - 12440 - 74.2%
Second Round Avg - 10446 - 62.3%
Third Round Avg - 8391 - 50.1%
Fourth Round Avg - 6463 - 38.6%
Fifth Round Avg - 5163 - 30.8%
Sixth Round Avg - 2140 - 12.8%
Overall Avg - 10645 - 63.5%

Average Number of Points Earned by Contest Entrants (out of 32 possible points per round, 192 total)

First Round - 23.74
Second Round - 19.94
Third Round - 16.01
Fourth Round - 12.34
Fifth Round - 9.85
Sixth Round - 4.08
Total - 85.96

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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: Zhirrzh | Posted: 9/2/2002 6:10:41 PM | Message Detail

Average was only 85.96, eh? Makes me feel way better. I was in a averageish zone for most of the contest due to not thinking Scorpion would get past round 1 and not thinking as highly of Crono and Snake as I should (I love Square and yet hated silent boy, and it warped my judgment :) ). But Link coming through and the other finalist being Mario bumped me to 152, so not so bad in the end. These stats are great are for making me feel smarter :)

From: EBFan2000 | Posted: 9/3/2002 12:39:00 PM | Message Detail

solarshadow, I commend you for the work that you've done.

From: solarshadow | Posted: 9/3/2002 1:21:11 PM | Message Detail

Okay, I'm trying to put the contest averages into a happier format, but I can't decide how I want to do it. I'm not sure if anyone is still reading this topic, but if you are check out this link and tell me whether you like the first chart or the second chart better (or the old chart, if you don't like the new ones): https://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/avg0.html

I'll work on something else for awhile in case I actually get some replies. :)
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: King Morgoth | Posted: 9/3/2002 3:41:34 PM | Message Detail

Don't worry, we're still reading your posts Solar! ;)

About your contest averages, I like the first format better, but I think it'd look better if you would italicize the percentages.

Keep up the good work!
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"Everything gold does not glitter
Not all those who wander are lost"

From: Samberdog | Posted: 9/3/2002 4:41:12 PM | Message Detail

Don't worry solar, I'm still reading too. Now that schools started though, I can't spend as much time on these boards.

Website still looks great! It's good to see that you're still working to complete all the stats. A less dedicated person would have stopped.

I hope they don't close the board for a while longer. I'm scared I'll just log on one day and all of this will be gone. :(
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I've been SHINE GOTTEN !!
Shine Count: 67

From: Bananaquest | Posted: 9/3/2002 4:58:41 PM | Message Detail

Your friendly neighbor Bananaquest has not abandoned you yet, solarshadow. I still enjoy read them since the beginning. Keep the number-crunching going. Also, your website is great as ever.
By the way, which boards are you migrating to in the event this board goes 'bye-bye'?
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Bananaquest: "There is life after the Summer 2002 Contest. Right?" | Crono: "....."
PRESS PLAY ON TAPE (Commodore 64 C2N Cassette Unit)

From: King Morgoth | Posted: 9/3/2002 5:06:47 PM | Message Detail

Hey Solar!
I've tried something for the average page
http://www.geocities.com/kingmorgoth/summercontest/average.html
I don't know if you'll like it but if you do you could make a few of the stats on this model (it probably wouldn't fit them all)
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"Everything gold does not glitter
Not all those who wander are lost"

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