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Summer 2002 Contest

FULL STATS - Summer 2002 Contest (Updated Nightly)

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From: King Morgoth | Posted: 8/26/2002 9:35:56 PM | Message Detail

Good work Solar!
Here are the full third round stats :
http://www.geocities.com/kingmorgoth/stats3.txt

I don't know if anyone is going to read my post but I need to errrr... "express" myself anyways ;)

I think that today could be one of the saddest (sp?) days in all gaming history...even though I will loose 24 points if Mario wins tonight, I think he "should" win. Oh well, no one "deserves" to win a POPULARITY contest except for the character who'll get the most votes... I know that this have been said before, that this is not a matter of who deserves to win but of who is most popular, and that is exactly the point I'm trying to make. This will be a sad day if a single-game character like Cloud happens to be more POPULAR than Mario. I won't be mad, I won't start flaming anyone who voted for Cloud, I won't stop coming here, I won't stop flaming FF games, I won't cry. I will simply be sad, that a character like Cloud (I have nothing against Cloud, but he's only been in a single game, which is not enough for him to be a "legend") has beaten a gaming icon like Mario. And I hope that I'm not the only one.....

I only hope that this makes sense and that I don't look like a fanboy...
---
"Everything gold does not glitter
Not all those who wander are lost"

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/26/2002 10:00:18 PM | Message Detail

Here's a little Fourth Round preview for you. I've included the characters with their seeding, the odds, and the percentage of contest entrants that chose them to win their previous match. It's not much, but it might give us some indication of which characters are likely to win and how many people might get it right.

1 - Mario (6:1) - 72.5%
2 - Cloud Strife (14:1) - 53.5%

5 - Crono (33:1) - 33.1%
2 - Solid Snake (8:1) - 67.5%

5 - Scorpion (150:1) - 17.3%
2 - Link (9:1) - 69.0%

5 - Samus Aran (36:1) - 31.8%
7 - Sephiroth (9:1) - 55.7%

-FOURTH ROUND PREVIEW ANALYSIS-

This round with starts off with a bang, as the Mario vs. Cloud matchup is likely to be the most exciting and meaningful of the entire round. It's the first clash of 2 "elite five" characters and both are strong contenders to win the tournament, so no matter what the outcome this will definitely shake up a lot of brackets. At 6:1 Mario has the best odds in the tournament, with Cloud's 14:1 not far behind at 5th. So not only does that indicate that this should be a good battle, but it also shows that there is a lot on the line. Mario hasn't been as impressive as he should have been in the previous rounds, but he can make up for that now if he can take down Cloud. Cloud has been a force all throughout the contest, but hasn't really faced a real challenge until now. This battle should be epic and draw a record number of voters. As for the eventual outcome? Too close to call.

The other close battle of the round could be Crono vs. Solid Snake. Snake has been underwhelming in his previous battles, but he has had some decent competition. Crono on the other hand has been doing remarkably well, particularly for a character who was only really in 1 game way back on the SNES (plus the PS1 re-release). He could surprise a lot of people and pull off the upset against Snake. Of course, if Snake does manage to win (and he probably should), this will give us a good indication of whether he has a chance to make the finals or not. If he only squeaks by Crono, bigger Square mascots like Cloud are likely to make him look silly (or those that beat the Square mascots, if Mario can win), but if he can pull off a sizeable victory he may just have a chance against the rest of the "elite five".

Link vs. Scorpion is probably the only matchup that could be considered "blowout" material. Link should take this easily, with Scorpion putting up a decent but ultimately non-threatening fight. It will serve as a nice breather after all the excitement of the previous matches. And it should have the highest prediction percentage of the fourth round. Mario and Snake will be locked in tough battles, and none of the other characters were predicted last round by more that 55% of the entrants, so those totals should remain low no matter what the outcome. Of course, if Scorpion were to win it would set an amazingly low record in that category, since only 17% even had him getting this far.

And finally we have Samus vs. Sephiroth. This one is Sephiroth's to lose, and it's unlikely that Samus will take it away from him. She's done well in defeating some hard opponents (most notably Sonic), but she just barely pulled through in her last match and Sephiroth is another step up from that. Still, I wouldn't count her out just yet, but the edge is definitely with Sephiroth. I expect this to be the hardest match to predict of the round, unless Crono (or maybe Cloud) wins, in which case he'll probably have that honor. Either way, the prediction percentage for this match should be in the 40% range if Sephiroth wins it, and way down in the 20% and lower range if Samus takes it.

Now that the matches have finally gotten interesting this should really be a lot of fun. Sit back and enjoy it.
---
Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/26/2002 10:30:47 PM | Message Detail

Thanks again, King Morgoth. Just when I was starting to wonder where you were you appear bearing nicely formatted lists. :)

What you posted makes sense, although personally I won't feel too sad if Mario loses (even though I had him taking it all in my bracket). Cloud being just as popular as Mario (or slightly more popular) on a site like GameFAQs doesn't surprise me all that much. I figured Mario could still take it, but it looks like the FF support was even stronger than I'd thought. On a more balanced site Mario would do much better, but RPGs have always dominated GameFAQs so Cloud and co. have a bit of an edge.

Even still, it is amazing that the massive contributions Mario has made to video games could be so easily trumped by a 1-game wonder (he didn't have a starring role in any of the subsequent games he appeared in). Games starring Mario have pulled in over $7 billion over the years. So Mario losing would be kind of disappointing, but give some credit to Cloud, he was a pretty cool character from a very significant game.

I won't be mad, I won't start flaming anyone who voted for Cloud, I won't stop coming here, I won't stop flaming FF games, I won't cry.

Uh, did you mean to say that? :)
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: Jjukil | Posted: 8/27/2002 12:33:00 AM | Message Detail

...well. That little round of insanity is done.

Not that the boards won't be ringing for hours with the aftermath...
...not that they weren't already ringing before.... *sighs*

Looks like you've got quite a bit of updating to do, Solar. =)

...as for me, I've got a lot of banging my head on the desk to do. I had Snake winning today...and on the 30th...and on the 1st....*bangs head on the desk repeatedly*

Thanks, Jjukil

From: Old Master Q | Posted: 8/27/2002 12:35:17 AM | Message Detail

compared to the last few matches this one can be considered a breather.

but, we never know what'll happen during the day.......
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A person is only as big as the things that make him angry.

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/27/2002 12:41:15 AM | Message Detail

Tonight's Results:

1 - Mario (6:1) - 64990 / 50.11% (129703) - 7416 / 44.2%
2 - Cloud Strife (14:1) - 64713 / 49.89% (129703)

Updated Lists:

Top 10 Closest Matches (difference in brackets)

1) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog 49.98% vs. Samus Aran 50.02% - (0.04%)
2) (iv) Mario 50.11% vs. Cloud Strife 49.89% - (0.22%)
3) (iii) Mega Man 49.49% vs. Sephiroth 50.51% - (1.02%)
4) (ii) Donkey Kong 51.06% vs. Aya Brea 48.94% - (2.12%)
5) Strider Hiryu 52.57% vs. Raziel 47.43% - (5.14%)
6) Jill Valentine 53.34% vs. Kirby 46.66% - (6.68%)
7) Alucard 54.32% vs. Miles "Tails" Prower 45.68% - (8.64%)
8) Pikachu 54.41% vs. PaRappa The Rapper 45.59% - (8.82%)
9) Tidus 55.46% vs. Claire Redfield 44.54% - (10.92%)
10) (iii) Aeris 43.46% vs. Solid Snake 56.54% - (13.08%)

Top 10 Smallest Vote Gaps (difference in brackets)

1) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog 41939 vs. Samus Aran 41973 - (34)
2) (iv) Mario 64990 vs. Cloud Strife 64713 - (277)
3) (iii) Mega Man 48185 vs. Sephiroth 49172 - (987)
4) (ii) Donkey Kong 31798 vs. Aya Brea 30478 - (1320)
5) Strider Hiryu 30662 vs. Raziel 27661 - (3001)
6) Jill Valentine 37539 vs. Kirby 32837 - (4702)
7) Pikachu 30711 vs. PaRappa The Rapper 25736 - (4975)
8) Alucard 33516 vs. Miles "Tails" Prower 28190 - (5326)
9) Tidus 35004 vs. Claire Redfield 28117 - (6887)
10) Kyo Kusanagi 31160 vs. Abe 22760 - (8400)

Top 10 Most Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) (iv) Mario vs. Cloud Strife - 129703
2) (iii) Mega Man vs. Sephiroth - 97357
3) (iii) Jill Valentine vs. Link - 85273
4) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Samus Aran - 83912
5) (ii) Pikachu vs. Cloud Strife - 75371
6) (iii) Aeris vs. Solid Snake - 75247
7) (iii) Alucard vs. Cloud Strife - 74365
8) (iii) Lara Croft vs. Crono - 74059
9) Cloud Strife vs. Fox McCloud - 73242
10) Solid Snake vs. Squall Leonhart - 71676

Top 10 Biggest Vote Getters

1) (iv) Mario - 64990
2) (iv) Cloud Strife - 64713
3) Mega Man - 63039
4) (iii) Link - 61931
5) Sephiroth - 61367
6) (ii) Mega Man - 60914
7) (ii) Cloud Strife - 59926
8) Link - 59509
9) Cloud Strife - 54643
10) (ii) Link - 53992

Top 10 Most Impressive Losers (by votes)

1) (iv) Cloud Strife - 64713
2) (iii) Mega Man - 48185
3) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog - 41939
4) Kirby - 32837
5) (iii) Aeris - 32702
6) (ii) Aya Brea - 30478
7) (iii) Pac-Man - 28936
8) (ii) Ryu - 28630
9) Miles "Tails" Prower - 28190
10) Claire Redfield - 28117

Top 10 Hardest Matches to Predict (based on percentage of contest entrants choosing the winner)

1) (iii) Pac-Man vs. Scorpion 17.3%
2) (ii) Alucard 28.8% vs. Duke Nukem
3) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Samus Aran 31.8%
4) (ii) Bomberman vs. Jill Valentine 32.5%
5) (iii) Lara Croft vs. Crono 33.1%
6) (ii) Scorpion 33.6% vs. Max Payne
7) Morrigan Aensland 42.3% vs. Spyro the Dragon 57.7%
8) Gordon Freeman 56.3% vs. Tina Armstrong 43.7%
9) (iv) Mario 44.2% vs. Cloud Strife
10) Abe 49.5% vs. Kyo Kusanagi 50.5%

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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: DRDPRGer | Posted: 8/27/2002 12:48:17 AM | Message Detail

Thanks for the update! Always nice to have some numbers on here.
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Ed will introduce Ed. Full name, Edward Wong Hau Pepelu Tivrusky the 4th - Ed from Cowboy Bebop.

From: NeoElfboy | Posted: 8/27/2002 12:54:06 AM | Message Detail

Wow.

Just... wow.

First of all, congrats are in order to Solar for getting the perfect North division.

Myself, I say goodbye to 24 points, after mispicking the big match. And, two days after the Sonic/Samus debacle, I sort of understand how the Sonic fans felt, finally. My feelings are nowhere near as extreme, since I am not personally a fan of Cloud's (I liked FF7, but it is far from my favourite game), yet a part of me does feel cheated. I know there are plenty of good reasons for Mario deserving the win, but I am a little annoyed that he only (apparently) won because of the influx of votes from Nintendo-based sites. In a sense, this shouldn't bother me... does it not prove that Mario fans were more devoted, if they were willing to campaign for their cause? But I didn't expect this, so bother me it does. A factor unaccounted for.

After the high-pressure matches of the previous days, I'm looking forward to bit of down-time, and hopefully NOT having to hit that Refresh button at least once every half an hour. Crono's current lead over Snake looks massive by recent standards (though I would have called it close just last week... how quickly things change!) and I don't expect Link or Sephiroth to lose. Nor Mario, for that matter, against his next opponent. It'll be very nice to relax.

During the first week of the contest, I remarked that I didn't feel Mario was up to the standards of the characters I saw as the true talent (Link, Cloud, and Sephiroth) in this Contest. However, at that time, I qualified that statement with my belief that if Mario could prove me wrong and overcome Cloud, he could overcome anybody.

And I do wonder, who will stop Mario now? There are really only two possibilities, Link and Sephiroth. But seeing what Mario was able to accomplish... to tap the fact that he does mean more to the industry than anything else... do they really have a chance? I once claimed Link had a better chance than Mario, because very few dislike Link, while the same isn't quite as true for the man in red. But if the Nintendo faithful were forced to choose... can you honestly say they would go against their mascot? They certainly didn't for Donkey Kong, and while Link is admittedly a few leagues above the ape, somehow I doubt his fate will be different. And Sephiroth? I just can't see him accomplishing what Cloud couldn't. I do believe he's perceived as cooler than Cloud, and would likely win if those two had met... but in general, I'd have to say that if Mario could defeat Cloud, the same support would give him the win over the Contest's only villain.

Is Mario now the clear favourite? If not, who can beat him?

Let's hope to see the return of sanity to the Boards as we search for the answers.

~NeoElfboy
---
"Sometimes I think your massive intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon themselves and transform into stat bonuses!" -RM
<VetSCCer>

From: Old Master Q | Posted: 8/27/2002 12:57:50 AM | Message Detail

niiiiice post.
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A person is only as big as the things that make him angry.

From: Samberdog | Posted: 8/27/2002 1:24:35 AM | Message Detail

Amazing. That match was one for the ages. It lived up to all the hype, and even surpassed it.

Where to start. I guess with tonight's huge winner, Mario. I don't know what to say. He started out the contest favorite, with the best odds and the support of many. But once things started, Mario was not impressing as he should be. While other character like Link, Megaman, and Sephiroth were reaching sixty thousand votes, Mario had his hands full with first round upset Morrigan. I was really stating to doubt that my favorite plumber (who I have winning the entire contest) could defeat Cloud, as he just seemed to overwhelm Mario in every aspect. Things were looking grim, especially with Sephiroth's win over fellow old-school videogame icon MegaMan, but somehow Mario pulled through. After defeating Cloud, Cloud, his toughest competition yet, he's managed to post the highest number of votes yet in this contest.

Cloud of course, put up an equally amazing show. He had a great first round, offing big names like Fox, Pikachu, and Alucard with relative ease. He was winning against Mario for a few hours, then managed to stay neck and neck with him for the rest of the evening, but in the end, he was just 200 votes shy of greatness. Like your stats show, he received more votes than anyone else in this contest, outside of Mario. Wow.

This is all a true testament to how amazing that match was. The two contestants are now the top two highest vote getters, even though they both finished with just 50% of the vote. The total was an astounding 130000! I don't think a GameFaqs poll has ever seen those kind of numbers, and it will be a hard press to beat that total again.

But why all the votes? Well, obviously these two were big names. And the vote totals had been rather inflated in the last three matches. Whether the recently increased numbers were due to the PA link, or just because competition was heating up, no one is really sure. And lately some have said that these higher totals were due to rampant cheating. But I don't think anyone was seriously expecting 130000 votes. I believe most of these came from the massive campaigns fans of each character launched, with the most obvious being Mario's. The link from PlanetGameCube most likely allowed Mario to win. Many were outraged at these campaigns, and CJayC has spoken out against them. I personally think they're fair game, but maybe that's just because Mario won ^_^.

I'll post some more of my thoughts in a little bit.

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Muse of the Day: Why do you get on a bus, but get into a car?

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/27/2002 1:40:31 AM | Message Detail

Phew. Well, the website's been fully updated. I figured the beginning of the fourth round was worthy of special treatment (particularly considering what happened in the first match), so I went ahead and updated all the sections instead of just the usual few. That'll leave me some time tomorrow to finish fixing up the menus and to take care of some other house cleaning type business.

Just by glancing at the stats I can tell I'm going to have a lot to talk about in the analysis. It's too bad I used up all of my vocabularly on the previous 2 matches. :)

Anyway, I'm not going to say anything more tonight. I think I've posted my fair share of bytes for today already. I look forward to just relaxing and reading the comments everyone else has posted.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: Samberdog | Posted: 8/27/2002 1:43:08 AM | Message Detail

After that orgasm inducing match, it's boggling to think that things are really just starting to get tight.

Snake Vs Crono. Well, it looks like Crono's winning. While I wouldn't count Snake out 100% yet, it'll be pretty tough to overcome this large of a margin. This is going to be a real upset if it happens. Snake had the 2nd highest odds, and stands to be the only member of the elite five to be taken down by a character not in the club. A lot of brackets will be destroyed after this match. I know I'll lose eight points. I can't say I see why people are so compelled to support Crono, but it's definitely safe to say he's been wildly underestimated.

Regardless of whether Snake makes a comeback or not, I seriously doubt either of the two can defeat Mario in the next round. Crono will most likely put up a decent fight, but I can't see him doing anymore than Cloud did.

Link over Scorpion is extremely obvious. Scorpion had a great run, but it's safe to say his train ends here.

Samus over Sephiroth will most likely end in a Sephiroth win. Which would not surprise many. Although his win over Megaman wasn't as overwhelming as it could have been, Samus stands little chance.

Link VS Sephiroth, here's predicting, will be another close match, but I really think Link can take it. Cloud is dead. And although some would argue, I don't think Sephiroth is as big with casual gamers as Cloud is. I don't know, this is probably the only match left in the contest I'm undecided about.

Phew! Ok, that was a lot. I hope you weren't too bored with my incoherent ramblings. It's just that this topic stands as a beacon of light, truth, and intelligence in the mindless (albeit entertaining) sea of close minded flames, and I like to share what's going on in my head.

More GREAT work Solar! You really should get some award or something, way 2 go!
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Muse of the Day: Why do you get on a bus, but get into a car?

From: FaceLoran | Posted: 8/27/2002 1:57:04 AM | Message Detail

I am thoroughly crushed that Crono has somehow managed to defeat the great Solid Snake. I had him taking it all.
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@xxxxxxxxxx[============================>
"Sometimes I amaze even myself!" -Han Solo, Star Wars: A New Hope

From: UncleUlty | Posted: 8/27/2002 2:12:34 AM | Message Detail

I agree with all u said samberdog, i also hope that this will be as big of an upset as u say...I need people to start losing points and quick...I had cloud in the finals but if most people have snake winning, and a lot having him go all the way, i could have a chance to win.

I also think link has the contest won,,,if he can get past seph.. If link goes up against mario,,its fair to assume that all huge square fans and nintendo haters will pick what to them is the lesser of 2 evils..Link.. also many nintendo fans..myself included, like Link more than mario..

My hopes on the semi finals...Crono beats Mario,,,if he can pull this off,,it will help me a lot..I cant get points anyhow..but if crono wins..it will shatter many peoples bracket and bring them down to my level,,
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"You are in the presence of Octopus Royalty"
TEAM SNK

From: Jjukil | Posted: 8/27/2002 2:22:13 AM | Message Detail

Random Thoughts (more coherent ones to come tomorrow):

-I just don't know what to say about the vote totals anymore. I'm beyond being amazed, frankly; I've got no idea what to think.

-Crono has a shot at Mario, I think, especially if he does get past Solid Snake (which is looking less certain by the update, thank goodness for my bracket). Crono's fanbase is very different from Cloud's; being on the SNES takes away some of Mario's nostalgia votes, and Chrono Trigger seems more widely respected than Final Fantasy 7. (FF7's proponents rank it higher than CT...but CT is on more peoples' lists of great games.) I'll take Mario over Cloud, but I'll take Crono over either.

-Yesterday did indeed live up to the hype. The sheer volume of votes was not half as amazing as the sheer volume of board topics. (We are up to 300 pages, folks, and the Mario/Cloud wars date back to page 145.) And yet...somehow, it didn't seem all that exciting. Maybe the fifteen minute rule cut down on the suspense; maybe the flames and rants rendering the board useless unnerved me. Maybe I've just been disspirited by the idea of cheaters. Whatever it was, the sheer numbers say it was great...but it didn't feel great, somehow. I'm wondering if I'm the only one feeling the same way.

Thanks, Jjukil

From: MMXcalibur | Posted: 8/27/2002 6:33:36 AM | Message Detail

Amazing.
I give you all golden cookies...and solarshadow....a BASKET o' GOLDEN COOKIES!
You have done excellent work all contest long.
I'd just like to add my 2 cents if it's all right.
Calling the classic Mario/Cloud battle and the future the way I saw/see it:

My take?

Well, for me, Mega Man is gone.
He fought a good fight vs a tough opponent on a RPG-dominated site.
I was a tad bit ticked that a legend in Mega Man was ousted by a NPC over-rated villain in Sephiroth. But that's my opinion.

Anyways, after Mega Man's defeat, I could just feel FFVII support growing. I looked at the Mario/Cloud battle as the breaking point for all old-skool gamers who couldn't understand why FFVII characters were beating classic characters.
Cloud would win...I was sure of it.
My theory was proven correct as I saw the poll for the first time with a Cloud 700 vote lead.
However, the dark horse in all of the battle had to be....planetgamecube.com.
There attention giving news brief on Mario swayed the contest in Mario's favor, no doubt.
He came back, took a lead..but strangely....it just stayed there....no Mario jump to 1000 vote leads.
The difference plopped at 50.15% and stayed around that area.
Well, either way, I wanted Mario to win this.
Mario was classic. He WAS video games.
I liked FFVII, and Cloud. But this was MARIO.
So me (and my bracket:p) were happy for Mario's win.
Two characters from one game do not deserve to be in the Final 4. From any game. Even MMX games.

The future looks pretty strong in Mario's favor. He's passed the one person to stop him from visiting the finals.
Next is a meeting with either Crono or Snake. And if Cloud and his FFVII fanbase couldn't oust the king of gaming. I'm not sure either of these two will.

Mario was very underrated. He was given no shot at all. All the buzz was about Cloud and how he would pull out a victory and head for the finals. However, now that he's pulled thru, Mario has gone from a Square sacrificial goat to one of the contest favorite's.

As for the bottom half of the bracket.....Link and Scorpion is a no-brainer...my man Link will *****-slap Scorpion. He had a good run. But Midway magic ends here.

Sephiroth vs Samus is all Sephy.
Samus has Sonic fans, the anti-nintendo and FFVII fanbase all against her.
She is toast.

Link vs Sephiroth? Well, this is Mario vs Cloud...ROUND 2.
Im sure the result will be in Link's favor.
He is not as disliked as Mario. Why? NOt quite sure.
He never talks. (Crono) Has a sword (Sephy, Cloud). Old-skool (Legend of Zelda). New skool (Ocarina of Time).
He is a threat. And Sephiroth is a bit lesser known than Cloud.
Sephy and his cool looks may not help him as much this time.
Link can match that stride for stride.

My final? Link vs Mario.
But that's a story Ill have to wait to tell....right?

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(>^_^)-( ()============<D <(0_o'^) -KIRBY X-BUSTER!

From: ncrdrg | Posted: 8/27/2002 7:04:31 AM | Message Detail

I have to agree with the campaign for certain characters being outrageous..i feel a lot more disappointed than neo elf boy because I know that without all that advertising which no doubt favored Mario, made it win. But i dont think its fair, i see Mario fans very low as of now. They keep complaining they never wanted to see 2 Square characters in the finals and they're currently almost doing that trick but for Nintendo..thats really being hypocrite and low. My fun from this contest has been fading out since all those recent matches..i dont know if they got legitimate wins over the others and it seriously bothers me.
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"Did you really think something as simple such as the end of the world was gonna do me in?" Sabin
Anti-Mod Faction:1 Moderators:0

From: GoldSlime35 | Posted: 8/27/2002 2:13:19 PM | Message Detail

In case anyone cares, because the final match is worth 32 points it is almost guaranteed that the top 50 will all have picked the champion correctly.

I picked Mario to win but now I think Link will, and my reasons are similar to those of previous posters.

Good job on the stats. Keep up the good work.

From: NeoElfboy | Posted: 8/27/2002 4:03:12 PM | Message Detail

*bump*

Though I personally like both Mario and Link, I do hope the final doesn't feature the two of them. It would seem like such an anti-climax to have this come down to a pair of Nintendo characters. Don't get me wrong; Cloud/Seph wouldn't have been any more interesting.

That said, it could very well happen. It all depends on a certain semi-final which people have been looking at since the contest began, though one which we now have far more information about. How will Link/Sephiroth compare to Mario/Cloud? Will the Nintendo faction rally around Link with as much dedication as they did Mario? Will Link's apparent lesser number of haters come into play? Are there a significant number of people who would vote Seph and not Cloud, or vice versa? What about revenge votes from MegaMan supporters? Or a revenge campaign by the FF7 crowd in response to the Planet Gamecube incident?

*circles the 31st on the calendar*

~NeoElfboy
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"Sometimes I think your massive intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon themselves and transform into stat bonuses!" -RM
<VetSCCer>

From: ReaPeR xZ | Posted: 8/27/2002 4:13:42 PM | Message Detail

Don't count Crono out yet. If Cloud can put up such a fight against Mario, Crono certainly can. There are FAR less haters of Crono than there were Cloud, I think people are underestimating Crono still, and I think his chances to beat Mario are very good.
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08/25/02 R.I.P. MegaMan

From: Samberdog | Posted: 8/27/2002 4:23:24 PM | Message Detail

Well if there's anyone in this contest we're underestimating, it definitely *would* be Crono.
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Muse of the Day: Why is it good to be a Daddy's girl, but bad to be a Momma's boy?

From: NeoElfboy | Posted: 8/27/2002 4:58:08 PM | Message Detail

Agreed.

Unless Scorpion wins it. That'd be hilarious.

~NeoElfboy
---
"Sometimes I think your massive intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon themselves and transform into stat bonuses!" -RM
<VetSCCer>

From: Ringworm | Posted: 8/27/2002 9:35:01 PM | Message Detail

Wow, lots to read since I last visited, and I agree with nearly all of it.

The final is going to be Mario v Link. Definately Mario, IMO, and most probably Link. I REALLY overestimated the FF7 fanboys, I'm just hoping they rally behind Sephy now, so I can at least get the winner of the competition right. Currently, he's my only semi finalist correct.

I had the semi final between Snake (RIP in 3 hours), and Cloud, with Snake making the final. There goes 32 votes just from the third round and semi, completely ruining my chances of even a top 25% placing. I knew I should of aimed for last place, I would of been coming equal last with 4 points if I had of. I may be underestimating Scorpion and Samus, but I'm fairly sure they will also be out of the competition after this round.

As far as I can tell, I'll be getting 8 more points for this competition, for a grand total of 78. Absolutely pathetic.

Biggest surprises for me are Mario's victory over Cloud, Snake's disappointing tournament - ending with a loss to Crono, and the big one - the shear number of votes this poll has been attracting. I thought my tiebreaker was a little low after the second round (I had it as 31000ish, I thought it should of been about 15000 higher), now I realise the winner will probably get close to 80000 votes. This is more than double the amount of votes cast in regular polls, I factored in a slight increase, but not this much. I think its the advertising at other sites now that is attracting the votes, and not multiple voting as I originally suspected, but the numbers are still pretty massive.

Great stats still, and its good to not care in the slightest any more who wins. My money's on Link, but if I had to choose anyone out of the remaining bunch, I'd pick Mario, the most recognised gaming icon worldwide. Should be an interesting week or so anyway.
---
Everyone that says "There's no such thing as a stupid question", has obviously never visited this board.

From: Jjukil | Posted: 8/27/2002 10:31:37 PM | Message Detail

And thus, the storm did calm. With the cries of foul during Mario vs. Cloud slowly drifting out with the tides, and the futile rally topics for Snake a mere whisper in comparison, one can only wonder one thing:

...why, oh WHY did I choose Snake to win this thing!? >_<

Well, okay, I'm sure that's not what...most of you are wondering. ;)

Well, it's a day later, and I still find myself too dumbfounded over the Mario/Cloud affair to make any decent analysis on it. The numbers alone can do that to you, I think. But after thinking on it for a while, I think Mario probably deserved this victory. Backed up by an overwhelming campaign that included planetgamecube.com, vgmusic.com, and several other huge large websites outside of Gamefaqs entirely, Mario ultimately proved that he has the bigger fanbase...or at least the more dedicated one. And with the massive numbers of Squaresoft fans that come to this site (and the huge amount of support topics for Cloud on this board), the latter may actually be more impressive.

As for the rest of the tournament, there are definitely some exciting matches...but the rest of the quarters are sadly not among them. The tourney's biggest underdog, Crono, is polishing off Snake as we speak, and there's little doubt Link will make much shorter work of Scorpion. To me, there's even less doubt that Sephiroth will utterly destroy the tainted Samus; at this point, I wouldn't be surprised if this was a bigger blowout than Link vs. Scorpion. =/

Once we make it to the semis, though, the warzone will return. I sincerely believe that Mario vs. Crono will be Mario vs. Cloud Take Two, with the same close margin and maybe even the same astrological numbers of that contest. As I said earlier, Crono's fanbase could very well be bigger than Cloud's, although it may be less intense. I still predict Mario will take the win and head into the finals, but I'll never count Crono out again.

Still, that will probably be the least volatile matchup of the final three, as day two pits Sephiroth against Link. FF7 fans are no doubt dying for revenge after yesterday's narrow loss, and Link will definitely feel their wrath, on the boards and in the polls. Of course, if any RPG series can unseat Final Fantasy in the U.S., it's The Legend of Zelda, and Link has many of the same advantages Mario had but with the added bonus of RPG roots. Still, I look for Sephiroth to take this one by the closest of margins (well, maybe not the closest...I don't think we'll ever top 37 votes).

Finally, on September 1st, the contest ends with Mario vs. Sephiroth. Needless to say, this will be a bloodbath. All the tensions of Mario vs. Cloud will come back again, and we may actually get MORE votes here than we did for that contest. But this match won't be an exact duplicate of MVC, for one simple reason: Cloud is not Sephiroth. To me, Sephiroth has always been the most popular character of FF7, or maybe FF altogether. He has a lot of "cool" qualities Cloud's missing, and he's a villain--one responsible for one of the most memorable scenes in gaming. It'll be a bloody fight, and it could easily come down to the wire again, but I see Sephiroth beating Mario and winning this tournament. (Of course, I saw Snake beating Mario AND Sephiroth, so my predictions of close matches aren't exactly flawless. =P )

The finals match I'm really rooting for, though, is Crono vs. Sephiroth. With Samus's imminent demise, Crono will be my favorite character left in the tournament, and I'd love to see him avenge her loss and take down the evil that is Sephiroth. ~_^

Thanks, Jjukil

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/27/2002 11:56:55 PM | Message Detail

Wow, there's some really good stuff here. What an enjoyable read.

I started writing down some thoughts on the recent events but I just deleted them because they simply weren't coming together. Exhaustion has taken its toll and I'm having trouble forming coherent thoughts. So I'll save it, even though it may not be as meaningful later on. I also didn't manage to do the usual analysis today, and I'm not going to be able to now. Sorry about that. Fortunately there's been plenty of good analysis posted already. I'll get into the numbers side of it tomorrow (hopefully).
---
Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: Jjukil | Posted: 8/28/2002 12:10:39 AM | Message Detail

"The numbers alone can do that to you, I think. But after thinking on it for a while, I think...."

...pay no attention to this and the other incoherencies in my posts from the last two days. I promise, they're not the norm. O_o;;

Actually, I'm starting to think a small part of me has gone totally mad. XD

Thanks, Jjukil

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/28/2002 12:26:48 AM | Message Detail

Tonight's Stats:

5 - Crono (33:1) - 52517 / 52.93% (99214) - 2452 / 14.6%
2 - Solid Snake (8:1) - 46697 / 47.07% (99214)

Updated Lists:

Top 10 Closest Matches (difference in brackets)

1) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog 49.98% vs. Samus Aran 50.02% - (0.04%)
2) (iv) Mario 50.11% vs. Cloud Strife 49.89% - (0.22%)
3) (iii) Mega Man 49.49% vs. Sephiroth 50.51% - (1.02%)
4) (ii) Donkey Kong 51.06% vs. Aya Brea 48.94% - (2.12%)
5) Strider Hiryu 52.57% vs. Raziel 47.43% - (5.14%)
6) (iv) Crono 52.93% vs. Solid Snake 47.07% - (5.86%)
7) Jill Valentine 53.34% vs. Kirby 46.66% - (6.68%)
8) Alucard 54.32% vs. Miles "Tails" Prower 45.68% - (8.64%)
9) Pikachu 54.41% vs. PaRappa The Rapper 45.59% - (8.82%)
10) Tidus 55.46% vs. Claire Redfield 44.54% - (10.92%)

Top 10 Smallest Vote Gaps (difference in brackets)

1) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog 41939 vs. Samus Aran 41973 - (34)
2) (iv) Mario 64990 vs. Cloud Strife 64713 - (277)
3) (iii) Mega Man 48185 vs. Sephiroth 49172 - (987)
4) (ii) Donkey Kong 31798 vs. Aya Brea 30478 - (1320)
5) Strider Hiryu 30662 vs. Raziel 27661 - (3001)
6) Jill Valentine 37539 vs. Kirby 32837 - (4702)
7) Pikachu 30711 vs. PaRappa The Rapper 25736 - (4975)
8) Alucard 33516 vs. Miles "Tails" Prower 28190 - (5326)
9) (iv) Crono 52517 vs. Solid Snake 46697 - (5820)
10) Tidus 35004 vs. Claire Redfield 28117 - (6887)

Top 10 Most Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) (iv) Mario vs. Cloud Strife - 129703
2) (iv) Crono vs. Solid Snake - 99214
3) (iii) Mega Man vs. Sephiroth - 97357
4) (iii) Jill Valentine vs. Link - 85273
5) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Samus Aran - 83912
6) (ii) Pikachu vs. Cloud Strife - 75371
7) (iii) Aeris vs. Solid Snake - 75247
8) (iii) Alucard vs. Cloud Strife - 74365
9) (iii) Lara Croft vs. Crono - 74059
10) Cloud Strife vs. Fox McCloud - 73242

Top 10 Most Impressive Losers (by votes)

1) (iv) Cloud Strife - 64713
2) (iii) Mega Man - 48185
3) (iv) Solid Snake - 46697
4) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog - 41939
5) Kirby - 32837
6) (iii) Aeris - 32702
7) (ii) Aya Brea - 30478
8) (iii) Pac-Man - 28936
9) (ii) Ryu - 28630
10) Miles "Tails" Prower - 28190

Top 10 Hardest Matches to Predict (based on percentage of contest entrants choosing the winner)

1) (iv) Crono 14.6% vs. Solid Snake
2) (iii) Pac-Man vs. Scorpion 17.3%
3) (ii) Alucard 28.8% vs. Duke Nukem
4) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Samus Aran 31.8%
5) (ii) Bomberman vs. Jill Valentine 32.5%
6) (iii) Lara Croft vs. Crono 33.1%
7) (ii) Scorpion 33.6% vs. Max Payne
8) Morrigan Aensland 42.3% vs. Spyro the Dragon 57.7%
9) Gordon Freeman 56.3% vs. Tina Armstrong 43.7%
10) (iv) Mario 44.2% vs. Cloud Strife

---
Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/28/2002 12:31:00 AM | Message Detail

Glad to see I wasn't the only one to severely underestimate Crono.

I only managed to get the stats portions of the website updated. The rest is beyond me at this point. Sorry again. Now sleep.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: Samberdog | Posted: 8/28/2002 12:54:55 PM | Message Detail

I hate Crono. He's cost me 14 points. NO MORE WINNING CRONO!

I don't know where he's getting all this support from, I mean, c'mon! Snake! Crono obviously has more force behind him than the gross majority of us predicted. Still though, will he be able to beat Mario? Maybe. But I hope not. We'll just have to wait and see.

I'm definitely glad Link is slaughtering Scorpion as easily as he is. I know he's getting some support as the ultimate underdog, but it's clear that he really just doesn't belong in the fourth round. This looks good for Link who *hopefully* can keep on blazing past Sephiroth to the finals.

I don't think Samus will be as big of an opponent as Megaman was. My prediction's 60/40 for Sephie.
---
Muse of the Day: Why is it good to be a Daddy's girl, but bad to be a Momma's boy?

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/28/2002 12:56:11 PM | Message Detail

Bonus Stat:

The scoring if you'd followed the seeding precisely would look like this:

1 Mario - 1pt - 2pts - 4pts - 8pts
2 Cloud - 1pt - 2pts - 4pts
3 Duke - 1pt - 0pts
4 DK - 1pt - 2pts
5 Terry - 0pts
6 Alucard - 1pt
7 Pikachu - 1pt
8 Spyro - 0pts

1 Lara - 1pt - 2pts - 0pts - 0pts
2 Snake - 1pt - 2pts - 4 pts
3 Gordon - 0pts - 0pts
4 Dante - 1pt - 0pts
5 Crono - 1pt
6 Kasumi - 0pts
7 Knuckles - 1pt
8 Ryo Hazuki - 1pt

1 Pac-Man - 1pt - 2pts - 0pts - 0pts
2 Link - 1pt - 2pts - 4pts
3 Jill - 1pt - 2pts
4 Max - 1pt - 0pts
5 Scorpion - 1pt
6 Bomberman - 1pt
7 Strider - 1pt
8 Abe - 0pts

1 Sonic - 1pt - 2pts - 0pts - 0pts
2 Crash - 1pt - 0pts - 0pts
3 Sam - 1pt - 0pts
4 Ryu - 1pt - 0pts
5 Samus Aran - 1pt
6 Mega Man - 1pt
7 Sephiroth - 1pt
8 Tidus - 1pt

First Round - 27pts
Second Round - 20pts
Third Round - 16pts
Fourth Round - 8 pts
Grand Total - 71 pts

So, 63 points at the end of the third round, 71 at the end of the fourth. Since you only needed 60 points to be in the majority at the end of the third round, that's not too bad for not having to think about it. :) With Mario's latest win you'd be up to 71, and with the rest of the number 1 seeds already out of the tournament that's going to be the final total based on seeding alone. You're not going to win any prizes with a score like that, but it will probably keep you in the top half of the ranking (but just barely).
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/28/2002 2:53:41 PM | Message Detail

Website's been updated and there's a new poll to vote in (thanks to javajim for the suggestion). I'll be back with more later.

Still can't believe Snake lost...
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/28/2002 7:39:24 PM | Message Detail

I wanted to offer some quick thoughts on the "campaigning" issue.

As I've mentioned a couple times, I'm not a fan of campaigning in the least. It may not actually be considered cheating, but I feel that securing a block of votes for a specific character goes against the spirit of the contest. The intention was to find out the most popular character according to GameFAQs visitors. This is what we took into account when making our brackets. Sure anyone can visit the site, but when a group of people are stopping by simply to vote, and when these people are predisposed towards a certain character, that introduces unpredictable variables into the contest and can harm those entrants who more accurately predicted the will of the regular GameFAQs voters. For instance, I predicted that Mario would win, but if I underestimated the popularity of Cloud on this site then I'd rather be punished for that by losing the match than to have a bunch of campaigning bring about the win for my character. Of course, I'm not trying to say that campaigning was definitely the reason Mario won. I will not claim any certainties with regards to this contest. The link on Planet GameCube and others sites no doubt helped him, but links promoting Cloud appeared on Final Fantasy Online (apparently) and additional sites, so there's no way to be certain which group of campaigning had the bigger effect (although I suspect it might be the Mario side).

Of course, it's hard for me to genuinely be disappointed with Mario's victory, even if it might have been won by campaigning. I can't really say I wasn't happy to see him win. But if the poll was tainted by campaigning then it would be a shame. Did I really deserve the perfect North Division? Maybe, maybe not. Maybe NeoElfboy deserved it. I would have rather known for sure.

Anyway, my biggest problem with campaigning is the motivation of those who do it. No one who campaigns is interested in a balanced poll, they simply want a certain character to win, and it's usually for selfish reasons. People want to get support for Mario because it helps their bracket; people want to get support for Cloud so they can gloat on the board; people want to get support for Mega Man because they hate Final Fantasy. It's never about improving the contest or gaining attention for the site, it's always about making their character win for their own reasons. And that's what really bothers me about it.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: ncrdrg | Posted: 8/28/2002 8:32:09 PM | Message Detail

From what i know, mario had had more advertising than cloud..and playonline has no link..one guy told me than he had not found links on major cloud fans websites, nor playonline. I checked Playonline.com...no link at all. Must be a rumor you heard. It isnt true unless someone gives me a link to to proof. But Planetgamecube is true..and its probably true for other mario sites since he's known as the biggest icon of gaming while cloud loss to mario would be globally would be found acceptable. IMO, advertising favored Mario more than Cloud. If you think about it..Link getting this high in votes is probably also a result of previous advertising. I rather found on playonline people trying to incite people to vote for Cloud on the boards! Not a direct link by the staff like Planetgamecube.

On another subject..It would be interesting to see Crono vs Link or Crono vs Sephiroth in the finals. Square most underestimated vs either Nintendo 2nd biggest icon or PSX rpg character (or old vs new). I would be the 1st one to disgusted by a Nintendo only finals. I seriously hope it wont happen..since it wouldnt represent gamefaqs normal visitors and users.
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"Britney songs are like Final Fantasy, evryone plays it, yet diss it in public" RamzaFX

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/28/2002 8:56:59 PM | Message Detail

Some Mario vs. Cloud analysis.

Wow.

Well, this was supposed to be the biggest and most important battle of the tournament so far, and it certainly lived up to its billing. Where to begin?

It's a shame this match had to happen so soon, as it was definitely worthy of being the final. The battle featured 2 supremely popular characters, possessed more drama than any previous match, had numerous lead changes throughout the entire day, and it's outcome was uncertain right up until midnight. You couldn't really ask for more than that. Sonic/Samus had a slightly more exciting finish, but other than that this battle was the most thrilling in every category.

The number of votes cast in this poll was a phenomenal 129703. It easily surpassed the 100000 mark, an amount few thought could actually be reached. And it absolutely crushed any previous poll's total by over 30000 votes. Absolutely amazing. Of course, some of those votes are likely the result of cheating, but there is no evidence to suggest that the majority of them were not legitimate. Other factors for the high vote total include the massive campaigning that was done to rally support for the characters (links to GameFAQs apparently appeared on both planetgamecube.com and ffonline.com, as well as other sites), and the incredibly high profile nature of the battle. There's hardly anyone who doesn't have a strong opinion on 1 of these 2 characters, so people had more motivation than ever to vote in the poll.

The next astonishing fact is the individual vote totals achieved by Mario and Cloud. Mario set a new record with 64990 votes, and Cloud placed an unbelievable 2nd on the highest vote getters list with 64713 (both eclipsed Mega Man's previous high of 63000 votes). I never thought I'd have to update the Top 10 Biggest Vote Getters list twice for the same match. Well, it looks like those of us worried about the support for Mario needn't worry any more. All memory of his uninspired performances in the previous rounds has been erased by this match. He's now the man to beat. Cloud didn't do so badly himself (obviously). His nearly 65000 votes in a losing effort places him securely atop the Most Impressive Losers list, and proves that he is truly one of the most popular characters in video game history. The loss was the first time he managed to break 60000 votes, but he is now the only 4-time member of 50000 vote club (although Link will join him shortly). Not bad at all. It's a shame he had to face off against Mario so soon.

(continued)

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/28/2002 8:57:04 PM | Message Detail

With all of the other excitement I haven't really conveyed just how amazingly close this battle was yet. Mario blasted out to an early lead in the first hour, holding the widest margin of the entire poll with about 55% of the vote. The gap didn't last long as Cloud quickly began to close it. Soon enough it had dwindled to nothing and the fierce battle for the lead began. After a bit of jockeying Cloud managed to get out in front by a slim margin, which he managed to pad a little and then hold for the rest of the morning. But by mid-afternoon the comeback was on (as was the campaigning) and Mario quickly caught up and regained the lead. But no lead was safe in this battle. The lead continued to go back and forth for the rest of the day, with neither character able to gain a clear advantage. The margin was razor thin and the excitement was palpable. But with 1 hour left and after a record number of lead changes, Mario finally got back in front to stay. As the poll closed Mario held one of the biggest leads of the evening, a mere 0.22% (277 votes). It was a lot of fun to watch. This was the 2nd closest battle of the tournament in both percentage and votes, which is pretty impressive considering the total number of votes that were cast. Doesn't get much better than this.

Considering the extreme nature of the other numbers, the fact that the match ranked as the 9th hardest battle to predict is a little boring by comparison. 44.2% of the entrants got it right, which isn't surprising when considering the previous numbers. 72.5% had Mario making it this far, with most choosing him to win again. Many also had Cloud in this match, and since their odds are so close it's not surprising to see the percentage split like that. Indeed, out of an extraordinary match this is the one stat that isn't.

Next up for Mario will be a tough battle against Crono. Mario has to be considered the favorite to win, but Crono pulled off an upset against Snake and has the potential to do it again. It could be another epic match.
---
Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: Jjukil | Posted: 8/29/2002 12:02:16 AM | Message Detail

Good point about Mario becoming the man to beat, Solar. He was losing "favorite" status after his first two matches, but it's obviously back in full force now.

*notes the current results of Samus/Sephiroth, which stand at 901 to 857 in Samus's favor*

I've never been more glad to be utterly wrong about one of these predictions. ^_^

Thanks, Jjukil

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/29/2002 12:09:39 AM | Message Detail

Some quick Crono vs. Snake analysis.

In the biggest upset of the tournament so far, underdog Crono has defeated the heavily favored Solid Snake. Snake came into the tournament with the 2nd highest odds (8:1, behind only Mario) and was expected to have a real shot at winning it all.

So, for the 2nd day in a row one of the "elite five" has fallen. However, it looks like Snake will be the only member of that club not to be defeated by one of the others. Crono's no slouch in the odds department as he is ranked number 6, but Snake was 4 times as likely to win, based on the odds alone.

Snake's loss is definitely a surprise, but it wasn't without its warning signs. Although it's true he had tougher opponents than some, Snake was never able to put up the kind of numbers that would indicate he deserved his place among the "elite five". Even against Knuckles and Squall he could only manage 60-65% of the vote, and not once did he break the 50000 vote mark. His highest spot on the biggest vote getters list is 22nd. Still, Mario underperformed in his opening rounds and then came through in the big match, so there was hope for Snake yet. However, he was up against the overachieving Crono, who had been dominating in victories against Simon Belmont, Dante, and Lara Croft. Crono's average vote take was over 70% versus Snake's measly 60%. Crono had also broken the 50000 vote barrier once and come very close a second time. The odds favored Snake but past performance was clearly in Crono's favor. There's also a chance that Cloud's battle aided Crono. Perhaps those who showed up to support Cloud stuck around to vote for Crono, or perhaps with the loss of one major Square RPG hero came renewed support for the surviving character. Either way, in the end Crono took the win in a close battle that lacked any real drama.

Not that it wasn't a popular battle, of course. With just shy of 100000 votes cast (99214 to be exact), it ranks as the 2nd most popular poll yet. And as the 6th closest match (percentagewise) it would normally have really been one worth talking about - if we hadn't been spoiled by the previous 3 matches.

But that's not to say this match didn't have it's significant and notable qualities. After all, it set a new record as the hardest match to predict of the tournament. A scant 14.6% of the contest entrants picked Crono to make it to the final four. Only 33.1% had him beating Ms. Croft, so only about half of those thought he could go on to cut down Snake as well. He has definitely being surprising a bunch of us as the has tournament progressed. 67.5% had Snake getting this far, and it's probable that more than half of them expected Snake to move on. So it's almost certain that we have another prediction based upset, in that more people picked Snake than Crono to win. Crono definitely wreaked some havoc with a lot of brackets. This could be the major turning point in the contest for the eventual winners.

Next up for Crono is a battle against contest-favorite Mario. Mario's got the edge and he definitely won't be as easy an opponent as Snake, but Crono has defied the odds and surprised us before, so this could make for a very interesting and hair-raising match. And since it marks the 1,000th GameFAQs poll, let's hope it's a good one.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/29/2002 12:13:07 AM | Message Detail

I can't believe Sephiroth is losing to Samus. I never would have seen that coming. My poor bracket. :(

I also can't believe another round is coming to an end. This one really seemed to fly by. ;)
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/29/2002 12:33:49 AM | Message Detail

Tonight's Results:

5 - Scorpion (150:1) - 21991 / 24.02% (91535)
2 - Link (9:1) - 69544 / 75.98% (91535) - 9557 / 57.0%

Updated Lists:

Top 10 Biggest Vote Gaps (difference in brackets)

1) Mega Man 63039 vs. Ms. Pac-Man 5257 - (57782)
2) (ii) Mega Man 60914 vs. Serious Sam 5414 - (55500)
3) Sephiroth 61367 vs. Gabe Logan 8602 - (52765)
4) Link 59509 vs. Little Mac 11076 - (48433)
5) (iv) Scorpion 21991 vs. Link 69544 - (47553)
6) (ii) Pikachu 15445 vs. Cloud Strife 59926 - (44481)
7) Sonic the Hedgehog 53023 vs. Pitfall Harry 11292 - (41731)
8) (ii) Sephiroth 53956 vs. Crash Bandicoot 12235 - (41721)
9) (iii) Mario 52333 vs. Donkey Kong 11507 - (40826)
10) (iii) Jill Valentine 23342 vs. Link 61931 - (38589)

Top 10 Most Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) (iv) Mario vs. Cloud Strife - 129703
2) (iv) Crono vs. Solid Snake - 99214
3) (iii) Mega Man vs. Sephiroth - 97357
4) (iv) Scorpion vs. Link - 91535
5) (iii) Jill Valentine vs. Link - 85273
6) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Samus Aran - 83912
7) (ii) Pikachu vs. Cloud Strife - 75371
8) (iii) Aeris vs. Solid Snake - 75247
9) (iii) Alucard vs. Cloud Strife - 74365
10) (iii) Lara Croft vs. Crono - 74059

Top 10 Biggest Vote Getters

1) (iv) Link - 69544
2) (iv) Mario - 64990
3) (iv) Cloud Strife - 64713
4) Mega Man - 63039
5) (iii) Link - 61931
6) Sephiroth - 61367
7) (ii) Mega Man - 60914
8) (ii) Cloud Strife - 59926
9) Link - 59509
10) Cloud Strife - 54643

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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: Old Master Q | Posted: 8/29/2002 12:38:44 AM | Message Detail

the gap is closing........

seems like Sephiroth likes being behind for the first few hours then making his comeback later one (he did that with megaman ^_^)

but if he's struggling with Samus, he can kiss his chances against Link goodbye
---
A person is only as big as the things that make him angry.

From: Samberdog | Posted: 8/29/2002 12:43:50 AM | Message Detail

While solarshadow disagrees, I personally think campaigning for your character is a great idea.

The environment here at Gamefaqs is a strange one. There are not many other places on the net that house so many diehard RPG fans. I wouldn't be the first to note that if this contest was held on a different website, chances are more mainstream characters like Sonic, Crash, and Lara would do much better than they have in this contest. But at Gamefaqs, RPG characters have the obvious edge. I don't think there's many other websites with a viewing population that would vote Crono over Snake. In the eyes of a casual gamer, the silent hero, of an archaic SNES RPG, would not stand a chance against the likes of a modern day bad-ass like Snake, the star of two of the most popular games released in the last five years.

Because of this less mainstream tilt, giants of the videogame industry, recognizable to everyone, like Mario and Sonic, are taken down several notches. While, moody, angst ridden spiky haired anti-heroes of Squaresoft are elevated to a level of power and influence they would not normally have. Someone like Mario, who seems to lack the round personality of someone like Cloud, is at a disadvantage with many RPG fans, who value story and character over most other things in videogames. I believe that if the vote was limited only to Gamefaqers, then Cloud would have won.

But he didn't because it isn't. If Mario IS more popular everywhere else on the net, then Mario fans have the responsibility to use that to their advantage, and to help their boy win. Against someone as mighty as Cloud, Mario does not have enough voters on Gamefaqs to win. That's because most Mario fans don't hang around Gamefaqs, probably because as many people say, FAQs aren't really required for Mario games, so a Mario fan would have no need to visit Gamefaqs. That's why Mario was not blowing the competition away the first three rounds. There was no need to call for outside help. Only when Mario was in trouble, was backup rounded up to help Nintendo's mascot prevail.

Informing people who would otherwise not know about this contest, and even a Nintendo site suggesting that you vote for Nintendo's mascot was perfectly fair play. This contest is open to everyone, and everyone is allowed to vote. Mario has great resources through out the internet community, and there's nothing wrong with tapping into them. Increased visits and votes equals more hits and money for CJayC, and a more accuarate poll result. If Cloud was truly more popular, than he would have had better campaign support and would have won his match. Campaigning is fair game, and is just another thing to factor into your bracket if you want to be successful.

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Muse of the Day: How can something be new and improved, if it's new, than how can it be improved on?

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/29/2002 12:45:04 AM | Message Detail

but if he's struggling with Samus, he can kiss his chances against Link goodbye

Too true. The all-Nintendo final is looking more and more like a reality. Man, the FF fanboys are going to go nuts. =P
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: NeoElfboy | Posted: 8/29/2002 1:04:42 AM | Message Detail

I'd agree with you, Samberdog, if I felt that the campaigning was equal.

As it is, it's just skewing things. It's making things GameFAQs + Nintendo sites. And GameFAQs has biases, to be sure... but those pale in comparison to a site dedicated to a single company. Originally, this Contest was going to decide who was the most popular according to the users of GameFAQs. Now the pool is far more random, and we really won't learn much of anything, except perhaps which side is more fanatical.

Oh, well. We could be in for a major anti-climax, but this has still been a lot of fun.

~NeoElfboy
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"Sometimes I think your massive intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon themselves and transform into stat bonuses!" -RM
<VetSCCer>

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/29/2002 1:04:52 AM | Message Detail

Samberdog: Well, I do agree with most of what you've said, but I just don't think the sort of campaigning we've seen was in the spirit of the contest. I've got no problem if you round up your friends, but when an army of voters comes from another site for the sole reason of rocking the vote, then it becomes problematic. There's no way to know which major sites will be willing to support certain characters, so it would be very difficult to account for campaigning votes when making a bracket. It becomes much more of a guessing game than one rewarding astute predictions. At least, that's how I see it. Adding variety to the voting pool will help make the poll better representitive of the gaming public, but the results were never going to represent the majority of gamers anyway so it's not going to solve that problem. It will just make it harder to know which kinds of fans are going to vote in which polls. I mean, will PGC support Mario again in the semi-finals and finals, or is a victory over Cloud enough? Just seems like the polls are now about which "side" can find the most supporters, not which character is actually more popular with GameFAQs visitors.

P.S. Confidential to Samberdog: But thanks for the Mario win anyway. ;)
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: Samberdog | Posted: 8/29/2002 1:08:07 AM | Message Detail

Wow. They're dead even. Samus was losing by two last round and now she's only behind by one. I hope Sephiroth wins, mostly for that extra eight points, but man it's close. This was another serious case of severe over/underestimation. Good job Samus, but I still think Sephiroth can squeak by with a win.

Either way, Link will absolutely own the winner next round. Go Link! Pity he couldn't have gotten 70000 votes.

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I've been SHINE GOTTEN !!
Shine Count: 5

From: NeoElfboy | Posted: 8/29/2002 1:24:45 AM | Message Detail

Hmm... time for some usual reflective thoughts/looking ahead.

Well, I won't call Samus/Sephiroth yet. I have a feeling Sephiroth will win, but I sure as hell won't count on that. No close match has gone against Nintendo yet...

Let's say Seph survives. Next is Link/Sephiroth. If you're a Square fan, you'd better pray the second Sephiroth theory I presented after his victory over Mega is correct, or he's probably gone... Link's more popular than Samus, right?

But what if Samus wins? I didn't think it would happen due to Sonic revenge votes, but those just don't appear to be materialising at all. It appears that perhaps the revenge vote just isn't much of a factor, after all.

Samus/Link... interesting. On the surface, one is inclined to favour Link, based on the fact that Zelda has been big in recent years, but one has to go back to 1994 to find Samus' latest effort (don't even bother with SSB).

But... call me crazy... but if that happens, I think Samus will win. Reasons?

1. For the embittered Square fanatics, she represents the lesser of Nintendo's evils.
2. The tremendous amount of respect for the Metroid games, particularly Super Metroid (you know, the best-game-of-all-time jazz that several major video game reviewers have blessed it with)
3. TJF. Figuratively, that is. I know I love Samus for what she represents as far as female characters go, and I also know many others like me. A little girl power could propel her to victory.

As I said, call me crazy. I'm probably almost the only one predicting this. But I really do give Samus the edge if it comes to it.

Though I give Link the edge over Sephiroth, and Seph a (slight) edge over Samus at this point... so overall, I'd say the Mario/Link final is the most likely one.

~NeoElfboy
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"Sometimes I think your massive intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon themselves and transform into stat bonuses!" -RM
<VetSCCer>

From: Samberdog | Posted: 8/29/2002 1:44:15 AM | Message Detail

I'm glad we can disagree without resorting to rampant flaming.

I suppose outside campaigns don't bother me because I've never really thought of this contest to be about the popularity of characters according to Gamefaqs users, but just a popularity contest period. The internet is all about communication, reaching out and community. I hate to say it, but if this contest was meant to be Gamefaqs only, then steps should have been made to ensure that happened.

The extra amount of votes one can get from campaigning for their character, is proportionate to the character's popularity. If the characters are of equal popularity than they should have an equal amount of votes, and they should also be able to acquire an equal number of campaign votes. If Cloud was as popular as Mario, than he would have gotten more campaign votes. If he can't, then that just shows us that Mario is more popular, and thus deserves to win.

A Mario VS Link final would be great, in my opinion. By then we would have had all the Square VS Nintendo stuff over with, and a Nintendo fanboy's (me :D) two favorite characters duking it out to win it all would be awesome.

Sorry if this post seems to reply mostly to NeoElfBoy's post, but both he and solar brought up the main points of this being a Gamefaqs affair only.

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I've been SHINE GOTTEN !!
Shine Count: 5

From: GoldSlime35 | Posted: 8/29/2002 1:44:47 AM | Message Detail

I hope that it is a Mario/Link final because that is what I picked. I was one of the few people who picked Crono to win the east. That happened to be my best division in which I won every match except for picking Gordon to win the first two rounds. The funny thing about that is that of the four divisions, the east is the division in which I knew the least about its participants.

Additional stat: Mario is the only character to increase his/her vote total in each round.

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/29/2002 1:54:51 AM | Message Detail

NeoElfboy: You're crazy. :)

Samus and Crono have really turned out to be the darkhorses of this contest, so I guess all bets are off when it comes to them. But even still I can't imagine Samus beating Link. I just can't. It would be interesting if it came down to Samus vs. Crono though (best game of all-time vs. best RPG of all-time?).

Actually, after reassessing my feelings I'm starting to think Link is the favorite to win it all. While he hasn't had the toughest of opponents so far, it's also true that he hasn't failed to impress in any of his 4 matches. And who's left that can stop him? Maybe Sephiroth, maybe... Mario?

GoldSlime35: That's a very interesting point. And after Mario's record-setting performance last round, can he continue to go up from here? If he did his finals total would be amazing...

Anyway, the website's been fully updated (easier to do with a boring match) and a new poll went up earlier today (for those who didn't see it). It looks like Sephiroth's making a comeback, so this could be another very interesting match throughout the entire day. Well, at least we had one day to relax. :)

Here's an interesting tidbit. The second half of my Mario/Cloud analysis was my 100th post in this topic. Wow. If that isn't deserving of some kind of "gratuitous bump award" I don't know what is. ;)
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

From: NeoElfboy | Posted: 8/29/2002 5:29:22 AM | Message Detail

Samberdog:

Heh. It's a rare occasion when anyone on this Board admits to being a fanboy. It's an even rarer occasion when that person is civil and offers well thought-out posts. I love this topic. ^_^

I have several problems with campaigning, though. One of which is, even if both sides are eqally dedicated, Mario fans have an advantage. Mario is a corporate icon. Any site with a vested interest in a certain corporation is likely to officially support such an icon. Cloud, of course, is not a corporate icon, nor is Sephiroth, or any other Square character. Square has no icons. Similarly (though it didn't come up), Solid Snake is not an icon for Konami, even if he is the star of their most successful series (in North America). When Konami markets "Solid Snake Tennis" or Square makes "Sephiroth Golf" we'd have other icons, but until then, it really is just Mario. He is more than just a character. He IS Nintendo. When you think Nintendo, you think of the man in red.

Does this make him more popular? I'll admit it could be argued that the fact that Mario is an icon in addition to his being a character justifies the fact that he is easier to campaign for and thence the fact that he gets more votes. But you won't see me actually support that line of reasoning any time soon.

Another problem with campaigning is how polarising it is. When you start campaigning, you are saying, whether you like it or not, that you mean business when it comes to your character winning. It's like an unofficial declaration of war. And as soon as there is a "war" mentality going on, people stop considering who is actually their favourite and start thinking about which "side" any given character is on. Block-voting for a single company's characters (be that Square or Nintendo) isn't what this contest should be about.

I'm not saying this polarisation is resulting in matches being changed. And if they are being changed, I'm not sure who stands to be helped. But all the numbers seem potentially tainted, now. Did Crono benefit from disappointed Cloud voters turning to the next-best spiky-haired Square alternative? Did Scorpion benefit from anti-Link votes by vengeful Square fanboys? Will Mario fans who never even played Metroid vote Samus to kill off that other wretched FF7 character? It becomes harder to judge accurately how relatively popular the characters are... which, in the end, undoes one of the main purposes of the Contest.

One last thing to consider... if a major Final Fantasy site had put up a large "vote for Cloud" link, and PGC had not put up one for Mario... if Mario had led with about 1000 votes halfway through the day, only to have that lead disappear... in short, had the situation being reversed as completely as symmetry allows, would you still feel the same way? This isn't intended as a rhetorical question. Pause for a moment and think about it.

~NeoElfboy
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"Sometimes I think your massive intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon themselves and transform into stat bonuses!" -RM
<VetSCCer>

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