Summer 2002 Contest
FULL STATS - Summer 2002 Contest (Updated Nightly)
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From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/15/2002 12:30:40 AM | Message Detail
Welcome to the new and improved stats post. Well, new anyway. It seems the other one was mysteriously moderated for being "off-topic" so we'll have to start over. Below, I've included all the second round stats up to this point (match #45) as well as the current Top 10 lists. If you're looking for the complete first round stats, the contest averages, and all the other fun stuff, you can find them at the contest stats site: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

But enough preamble, on to the stats. Remember, if you like what you see post some feedback or simply bump the topic so that others can see it. Enjoy.

KEY: seed# - Character (odds) - votes / percent (total votes) - number / percentage of contest entrants predicting this character to win the match [not available for losing characters]

-NORTH DIVISION-

1 - Mario (6:1) - 44448 / 66.81% (66532) - 13698 / 81.7%
9 - Morrigan Aensland (225:1) - 22084 / 33.19% (66532)

12 - Aya Brea (250:1) - 30478 / 48.94% (62276)
4 - Donkey Kong (140:1) - 31798 / 51.06% (62276) - 11665 / 69.6%

6 - Alucard (70:1) - 35864 / 61.51% (58309) - 4824 / 28.8%
3 - Duke Nukem (110:1) - 22445 / 38.49% (58309)

7 - Pikachu (120:1) - 15445 / 20.49% (75371)
2 - Cloud Strife (14:1) - 59926 / 79.51% (75371) - 11653 / 69.5%

-EAST DIVISION-

1 - Lara Croft (50:1) - 36308 / 59.38% (61142) - 12427 / 74.13%
8 - Ryo Hazuki (250:1) - 24834 / 40.62% (61142)

5 - Crono (33:1) - 43939 / 66.58% (65994) - 8679 / 51.8%
4 - Dante (36:1) - 22055 / 33.42% (65994)

11 - Aeris (90:1) - 50055 / 76.93% (65064) - 8965 / 53.5%
14 - Tina Armstrong (500:1) - 15009 / 23.07% (65064)

7 - Knuckles the Echidna (225:1) - 26748 / 39.29% (68083)
2 - Solid Snake (8:1) - 41335 / 60.71% (68083) - 12771 / 76.2%

-SOUTH DIVISION-

1 - Pac-Man (60:1) - 32607 / 62.84% (51889) - 10871 / 64.8%
9 - Kyo Kusanagi (300:1) - 19282 / 37.16% (51889)

5 - Scorpion (150:1) - 39171 / 65.37% (59925) - 5636 / 33.6%
4 - Max Payne (80:1) - 20754 / 34.63% (59925)

6 - Bomberman (250:1) - 27432 / 42.03% (65260)
3 - Jill Valentine (180:1) - 37828 / 57.97% (65260) - 5440 / 32.5%

7 - Strider Hiryu (250:1) - 17270 / 24.23% (71262)
2 - Link (9:1) - 53992 / 75.77% (71262) - 13493 / 80.5%

-WEST DIVISION-

1 - Sonic the Hedgehog (45:1) - 33602 / 58.83% (57118) - 10188 / 60.8%
8 - Tidus (90:1) - 23516 / 41.17% (57118)
From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/15/2002 12:30:58 AM | Message Detail
Top 10 Biggest Blowouts (difference in brackets)

1) Mega Man 92.30% vs. Ms. Pac-Man 7.70% - (84.60%)
2) Sephiroth 87.71% vs. Gabe Logan 12.29% - (75.42%)
3) Link 84.31% vs. Little Mac 15.69% - (68.62%)
4) Sonic the Hedgehog 82.44% vs. Pitfall Harry 17.56% - (64.88%)
5) Ryu 80.79% vs. CATS 19.21% - (61.58%)
6) Knuckles the Echidna 80.56% vs. Akira Yuki 19.44% - (61.12%)
7) (ii) Pikachu 20.49% vs. Cloud Strife 79.51% - (59.02%)
8) Bomberman 78.11% vs. Kane 21.89% - (56.22%)
9) (ii) Aeris 76.93% vs. Tina Armstrong 23.07% - (53.86%)
10) Crono 76.78% vs. Simon Belmont 23.22% - (53.56%)


Top 10 Biggest Vote Gaps (difference in brackets)

1) Mega Man 63039 vs. Ms. Pac-Man 5257 - (57782)
2) Sephiroth 61367 vs. Gabe Logan 8602 - (52765)
3) Link 59509 vs. Little Mac 11076 - (48433)
4) (ii) Pikachu 15445 vs. Cloud Strife 59926 - (44481)
5) Sonic the Hedgehog 53023 vs. Pitfall Harry 11292 - (41731)
6) Knuckles the Echidna 49964 vs. Akira Yuki 12057 - (37907)
7) (ii) Strider Hiryu 17270 vs. Link 53992 - (36722)
8) Cloud Strife 54643 vs. Fox McCloud 18599 - (36044)
9) Ryu 46869 vs. CATS 11145 - (35724)
10) (ii) Aeris 50055 vs. Tina Armstrong 15009 - (35046)


Top 10 Closest Matches (difference in brackets)

1) (ii) Donkey Kong 51.06% vs. Aya Brea 48.94% - (2.12%)
2) Strider Hiryu 52.57% vs. Raziel 47.43% - (5.14%)
3) Jill Valentine 53.34% vs. Kirby 46.66% - (6.68%)
4) Alucard 54.32% vs. Miles "Tails" Prower 45.68% - (8.64%)
5) Pikachu 54.41% vs. PaRappa The Rapper 45.59% - (8.82%)
6) Tidus 55.46% vs. Claire Redfield 44.54% - (10.92%)
7) Kyo Kusanagi 57.79% vs. Abe 42.21% - (15.58%)
8) (ii) Bomberman 42.03% vs. Jill Valentine 57.97% - (15.94%)
9) Serious Sam 58.73% vs. Mr. Driller 41.27% - (17.46%)
10) (ii) Sonic the Hedgehog 58.83% vs. Tidus 41.17% - (17.66%)


Top 10 Smallest Vote Gaps (difference in brackets)

1) (ii) Donkey Kong 31798 vs. Aya Brea 30478 - (1320)
2) Strider Hiryu 30662 vs. Raziel 27661 - (3001)
3) Jill Valentine 37539 vs. Kirby 32837 - (4702)
4) Pikachu 30711 vs. PaRappa The Rapper 25736 - (4975)
5) Alucard 33516 vs. Miles "Tails" Prower 28190 - (5326)
6) Tidus 35004 vs. Claire Redfield 28117 - (6887)
7) Kyo Kusanagi 31160 vs. Abe 22760 - (8400)
8) Serious Sam 32301 vs. Mr. Driller 22696 - (9605)
9) (ii) Sonic the Hedgehog 33602 vs. Tidus 23516 - (10086)
10) (ii) Bomberman 27432 vs. Jill Valentine 37828 - (10396)


Top 10 Most Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) (ii) Pikachu vs. Cloud Strife - 75371
2) Cloud Strife vs. Fox McCloud - 73242
3) Solid Snake vs. Squall Leonhart - 71676
4) (ii) Strider Hiryu vs. Link - 71262
5) Link vs. Little Mac - 70585
6) Jill Valentine vs. Kirby - 70376
7) Sephiroth vs. Gabe Logan - 69969
8) Mega Man vs. Ms. Pac-Man - 68296
9) (ii) Knuckles the Echidna vs. Solid Snake - 68083
10) (ii) Mario vs. Morrigan Aensland - 66532
From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/15/2002 12:31:58 AM | Message Detail
Top 10 Least Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) Max Payne vs. Dirk the Daring - 50816
2) (ii) Pac-Man vs. Kyo Kusanagi - 51889
3) Bomberman vs. Kane - 52419
4) Donkey Kong vs. Bub - 52618
5) Duke Nukem vs. Iori Yagami - 52874
6) Mario vs. Servbot - 53213
7) Kyo Kusanagi vs. Abe - 53920
8) Serious Sam vs. Mr. Driller - 54997
9) Ryo Hazuki vs. Guybrush Threepwood - 55392
10) Tina Armstrong vs. Gordon Freeman - 56361


Top 10 Biggest Vote Getters

1) Mega Man - 63039
2) Sephiroth - 61367
3) (ii) Cloud Strife - 59926
4) Link - 59509
5) Cloud Strife - 54643
6) (ii) Link - 53992
7) Sonic the Hedgehog - 53023
8) (ii) Aeris - 50055
9) Knuckles the Echidna - 49964
10) Crono - 49283


Top 10 Lowest Vote Getters

1) Ms. Pac-Man - 5257
2) Gabe Logan - 8602
3) Little Mac - 11076
4) CATS - 11145
5) Pitfall Harry - 11292
6) Kane - 11476
7) Akira Yuki - 12057
8) Dirk the Daring - 12109
9) Servbot - 13777
10) Simon Belmont - 14906


Top 10 Least Impressive Winners (by votes)

1) Strider Hiryu - 30662
2) Pikachu - 30711
3) Kyo Kusanagi - 31160
4) (ii) Donkey Kong - 31798
5) Serious Sam - 32301
6) Donkey Kong - 32602
7) (ii) Pac-Man - 32607
8) Duke Nukem - 33160
9) Alucard - 33516
10) (ii) Sonic the Hedgehog - 33602


Top 10 Most Impressive Losers (by votes)

1) Kirby - 32837
2) (ii) Aya Brea - 30478
3) Miles "Tails" Prower - 28190
4) Claire Redfield - 28117
5) Raziel - 27661
6) (ii) Bomberman - 27432
7) (ii) Knuckles the Echidna - 26748
8) PaRappa The Rapper - 25736
9) (ii) Ryo Hazuki - 24834
10) Squall Leonhart - 24779


Top 10 Easiest Matches to Predict (based on percentage of contest entrants choosing the winner - North Division not included)

1) Link 96.4% vs. Little Mac 3.6%
2) Sonic the Hedgehog 95.6% vs. Pitfall Harry 4.4%
3) Mega Man 94.1% vs. Ms. Pac-Man 5.9%
4) Max Payne 91.9% vs. Dirk the Daring 8.1%
5) Sephiroth 90.2% vs. Gabe Logan 9.8%
6) Lara Croft 88.4% vs. Chop Chop Master Onion 11.6%
7) Ryu 87.0% vs. CATS 13.0%
8) Solid Snake 83.8% vs. Squall Leonhart 16.2%
9) Pac-Man 81.7% vs. Goemon 18.3%
10) (ii) Mario 81.7% vs. Morrigan Aensland


Top 10 Hardest Matches to Predict (based on percentage of contest entrants choosing the winner - First Round North Division not included)

1) (ii) Alucard 28.8% vs. Duke Nukem
2) (ii) Bomberman vs. Jill Valentine 32.5%
3) (ii) Scorpion 33.6% vs. Max Payne
4) Gordon Freeman 56.3% vs. Tina Armstrong 43.7%
5) Abe 49.5% vs. Kyo Kusanagi 50.5%
6) Jill Valentine 50.8% vs. Kirby 49.2%
7) (ii) Crono 51.8% vs. Dante
8) (ii) Aeris 53.5% vs. Tina Armstrong
9) Strider Hiryu 56.0% vs. Raziel 44.0%
10) (ii) Sonic the Hedgehog 60.8% vs. Tidus


There you have it. Look for nightly stat updates, daily analysis, and hopefully some interesting discussion. :)

Special Thanks: Kirby Still On Top, Jjukil, NeoElfboy, King Morgoth

Additional Thanks: Terran, Samberdog, marsman47, Ringworm, Who Cares?, and everyone else who supported the stats posts

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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com
From: Siege1331 | Posted: 8/15/2002 12:33:25 AM | Message Detail
Thanks Solar, you put a lot of effort into this and it shows
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"Note to self, no matter how bad life gets, remember that there is always beer." -Norm McDonald
SHINE GET!
From: GipFace | Posted: 8/15/2002 12:34:30 AM | Message Detail
Again, excellent work, solarshadow!

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.: GipFace :.
http://www.livejournal.com/~gip - My LiveJournal
From: Samberdog | Posted: 8/15/2002 12:37:47 AM | Message Detail
More great work Solar!

*Is happy with his shoutout*
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Muse of the Day: How come "thaw" and "unthaw" mean the same thing?
From: Ringworm | Posted: 8/15/2002 12:42:49 AM | Message Detail
Well at least I know now that Sonic beating Tidus was in the 10 hardest matches to predict. Makes me feel a bit better about getting it wrong :/

Also thanks for the mention, and keep up the great work!
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Everyone that says "There's no such thing as a stupid question", has obviously never visited this board.
From: Terran | Posted: 8/15/2002 12:44:26 AM | Message Detail
Thanks Solar ^_^

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Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo merge to create...Microtendony!
"Goodbye world. You know, I'd always thought you'd die before me." - Homer Simpson
From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 8/15/2002 12:47:53 AM | Message Detail
Great work, Solar, good to have a topic back up. "What's this? Complete statistics for the GameFAQs Summer Contest? How the hell does that relate to the GameFAQs Summer Contest?" *click*

Oh, well, the old title still said "full first round stats," so maybe it's for the best. But getting back to the contest... I think the Sonic/Tidus match deserves an asterisk next to it in the official record. It was on pace to easily become one of the Top 3 most popular polls before the down-time hit this morning. It's incredible that it did as well as it did after being shut down for well over 4 hours (during peak voting time, no less).
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the-elite.net
From: NeoElfboy | Posted: 8/15/2002 1:01:08 AM | Message Detail
And the Board's best topic is reborn.

Thanks for bringing it back, and as always, nice job with the stats.

~NeoElfboy
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"Sometimes I think your massive intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon themselves and transform into stat bonuses!" -RM
<VetSCCer>
From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/15/2002 1:56:35 AM | Message Detail
Thanks everyone. I actually enjoy posting the stats (most of the time) so it's nice to have the topic back.

The stats website has been updated for tonight, and a new poll has been added. Check it out if you're interested. Whew, I need some rest.

Ngamer64: Yeah, it was basically time to start a new post, it just would've been nice to have done it on my own terms. Plus, the old one still would have made a good reference. Anyway, I suppose I should consider an asterisk or something for the Sonic/Tidus bout. You're right about it getting nailed during peak voting time. That had to hurt. I wonder if it drastically affected the amount of voters or if most of them just ended up voting at a different time? The match still managed to get a respectable vote total, but it probably would've been well into the 65000 range without the downtime. Hard to say what the overall effect was, but I don't think Sonic deserved to make the "Least Impressive Winners" list.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 8/15/2002 7:42:48 AM | Message Detail
Excellent, the stat topic is back! This is one of the things that makes the Summer Contest so great, this topic and these stats. It's always nice to know how many other people lose with you when you lose a match, or how many you beat when you get one right. It's just a shame that the old topic got deleted.
From: marsman57 | Posted: 8/15/2002 8:04:35 AM | Message Detail
At least get the number behind my name right =P I see how much I'm loved ^_~

I'm just teasing, honest typo. I was looking for your topic last night and wondering what the heck happened to it. I'm glad to see it back. I'm surprised it was modded for that though and deleted instead of closed especially since topicality was taken off moments later... Besides, how did it last so long without being modded then suddenly get that way. I think that was more of an excuse to get a new topic created because of the particularly large messages throughout that topic.
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"Got a bad case of the Mondays? That's why Lord Chaos invented CAT COFFEE!" -- 8-bit theater
From: marsman57 | Posted: 8/15/2002 8:05:02 AM | Message Detail
Oh yeah and... great new stats. I still feel a lot better that two of the matches I missed were 2 and 3 in hardest to predict ^_^.
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"Got a bad case of the Mondays? That's why Lord Chaos invented CAT COFFEE!" -- 8-bit theater
From: Ace2K | Posted: 8/15/2002 8:15:06 AM | Message Detail
good job and everything on compiling the stats, i commend you, but on the closest match thing, i dont think that the match between sonic and tidus should be included. The reason for this beacause the Gamefaqs server was down for most of the day so most people didnt get a chance to vote (i myself came back five time before my vote counted)
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Walk a mile in someones shoes before u criticize them, that way ur a mile away and u have their shoes.
From: Kirby Still On Top | Posted: 8/15/2002 8:18:24 AM | Message Detail
*Jumps for joy*
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If at first you don't succeed, give up hope and smoke some weed!
From: DecaffeinatedPenguin | Posted: 8/15/2002 9:25:39 AM | Message Detail
if the sonic/tidus poll was down for exactly four hours, his 'modified vote total would of been 40,322
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"Here, have some pills...pills are gooooood."~Jim Carey in dumb and dumber
From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/15/2002 1:19:48 PM | Message Detail
Ack, sorry about that, marsman57. Wait, I mean, what are you talking about? I meant to thank marsman47. I sure do like that guy. I just wish he'd post around here more often... ;)

As for the old topic, it lasted for almost 2 weeks with over 120 on-topic posts. How it could suddenly be deleted is beyond me. There should be rules against that.

The poll being down for the Sonic/Tidus match was unfortunate. It was down for about 4 hours from 11AM-3PM (I believe), and as we know from the vote distribution graph that's a very busy time of the day. So we can expect that the actual vote totals would have been much higher if the poll hadn't gone down. Although we also have to expect that some people who would've voted during those 4 hours ended up voting later anyway. So maybe it wasn't quite as bad as it looks. It's awfully unfortunate though, since it messes with the Top 10 lists. I guess an asterisk is probably in order (but maybe not on the "Closest Matches" list, since the percentages would have remained almost the same anyway).
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com
From: lordjers | Posted: 8/15/2002 1:23:55 PM | Message Detail
Good job Solarshadow, guess this is what it takes to beat me in the user contest. I wish you good luck on later rounds *crosses fingers at his back*
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Get a life?? GAMING is MY LIFE!!!
Winner of the Summer 2002 Trivia contest
From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/15/2002 4:27:38 PM | Message Detail
Heh. :) Yeah, I was surprised to beat you, lordjers. I guess more people visit the stats topic than I thought. Even dark cloud voted for me, and I beat him last round. Good to know revenge voting wasn't a factor. ;)
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com
From: lordjers | Posted: 8/15/2002 4:30:14 PM | Message Detail
Surprised? I was surprised I could make it to Round 2, considering and don't have a stats topic and my contests always suck.
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Get a life?? GAMING is MY LIFE!!!
Winner of the Summer 2002 Trivia contest
From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/15/2002 4:35:55 PM | Message Detail
Well, you destroyed Ffantasymaster in the first round. It was one of the biggest blowouts of the tournament and you seemed to have built a pretty good following. I figured I was done for. It was a close battle for most of the day but I guess the stats saved my hide. Yay stats!
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com
From: lordjers | Posted: 8/15/2002 4:40:58 PM | Message Detail
I was gonna vote for that one, but the topic got closed while I was typing. Damn luck! It is when it matters when I'm not there, why? why?
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Get a life?? GAMING is MY LIFE!!!
Winner of the Summer 2002 Trivia contest
From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/15/2002 5:18:19 PM | Message Detail
Some quick Strider vs. Link analysis (didn't get to do this yesterday, for obvious reasons...).

The juggernaut rolls on. Link dispatched Strider fairly easily in the 12th biggest blowout of the tournament so far. However, Strider still managed to get 24% of the vote, which I think is a little more than most people expected. Is this Link's first sign of weakness, or did we simply underestimate Strider? Probably the latter, but Link's next battle against Jill should give us a better idea.

Link became only the second character to break the 50000 vote barrier twice (Cloud was the first), and both of his matches have drawn over 70000 total voters. Strider's previous match brought in only 58000 votes, although his share of the votes was almost double the 17000 he got this time around. He may've eeked out a win over Raziel, but Link was far too much for him to handle.

The really interesting news is how very close Link and Cloud are in a number of important categories. Take a look at these Top 10 list excerpts:

Top 10 Biggest Vote Gaps (difference in brackets)

3) Link 59509 vs. Little Mac 11076 - (48433)
4) (ii) Cloud Strife 59926 vs. Pikachu 15445 - (44481)
...
7) (ii) Link 53992 vs. Strider Hiryu 17270 - (36722)
8) Cloud Strife 54643 vs. Fox McCloud 18599 - (36044)

Top 10 Most Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) (ii) Cloud Strife vs. Pikachu - 75371
2) Cloud Strife vs. Fox McCloud - 73242
...
4) (ii) Link vs. Strider Hiryu - 71262
5) Link vs. Little Mac - 70585

Top 10 Biggest Vote Getters

3) (ii) Cloud Strife - 59926
4) Link - 59509
5) Cloud Strife - 54643
6) (ii) Link - 53992

The two of them are always side by side and very near the top of the most impressive categories. A ton of people show up to vote in these matches with the overwhelming majority of voters picking each of them. Cloud has the highest combined vote total at 114569, with Link just behind at 113501 (for comparison, Mario's overall total is 83884 and Snake's is 88232). Of course, Mega Man and Sephiroth could easily top these numbers after their second round matches, but for now those two are at the top of the heap. With such similar numbers it could be a very interesting battle if Link and Cloud ever met, but that match would have to take place in the finals so we shouldn't look too far ahead just yet.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com
From: Ringworm | Posted: 8/15/2002 7:33:10 PM | Message Detail
Interesting, I still don't think either Cloud or Link will make the final, but seeing as I've been wrong with most other things - don't trust me. I've got Sephy beating Snake in the final, and I'm still confident of that part of my bracket at least.
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Everyone that says "There's no such thing as a stupid question", has obviously never visited this board.
From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/15/2002 8:20:51 PM | Message Detail
Oops, I forgot to mention the prediction percentage in my analysis. I'm surprised that the number of people picking Link dropped from 96.4% down to 80.5% this round. 16% (2300 people) thought either Strider or Raziel could beat Link? That seems a little high to me. I wonder how many thought/think he can win the next round? The likes of Kirby and Jill strike me as much tougher opponents than Strider.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com
From: Jjukil | Posted: 8/15/2002 9:14:19 PM | Message Detail
Great stats as always, Solar. Well, you know...as they always were before I left. =) And I like the analysis! Wish I could've seen more of the other ones before the topic was modded....

Speaking of which, that topic's pages may still be in your cache. If you haven't already, try setting IE to Work Offline, then go to the second page of your old topic. (Here's a link:
http://s2.cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=3747804&page=1
If that doesn't work, switch s2 to s1.) If you read every page of the topic before it was modded, and you don't have a tiny cache size or something, the pages should still be there. I already tried checking my cache, but I only have a few pages.

Hope it works out. (If it does, could you post the analyses on your site? I'd really like to see 'em.)

Thanks, Jjukil
From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/15/2002 9:50:13 PM | Message Detail
Some brief Sonic vs. Tidus analysis.

Another Square character falls (much to the chagrin of some). This was a much tougher battle for Sonic than his first round drubbing of Pitfall Harry, but he still sped past Tidus and into the third round.

Before I continue, I ought to mention that this match deserves a big asterisk. The poll was down for 4 hours in the middle of the day, just around peak voting times. So all the vote totals are likely to be much lower than they normally would be. Just keep that in mind.

Regardless of votes, this was the 10th closest match percentagewise. Sonic was down almost 25% compared to his first round match, receiving only 60% this time around. Tidus, who narrowly squeaked out a 55/45 win over Claire, dropped down to only 40% of the vote versus Sonic.

Due in part to the poll being down I'm sure, Sonic only garnered 33000 votes this time, 20000 lower than his first match. Tidus' total was down to 24000 from his previous 35000. Even with the voting outage the match managed to stay off the Top 10 Least Popular Polls list, finishing 14th in that regard with a little over 57000 votes. Not bad, considering.

The prediction percentage dropped tremendously, from 95.6% down to only 60.8%. That makes it the 10th hardest match to predict, narrowly edging out the Tidus/Claire match (appropriately enough) which also had only 60.8% (and a bit) of the people predict it right. 35% of the entrants who picked Sonic in the first round thought Tidus or Claire would be his doom.

Tidus put up a bit of a fight but it wasn't nearly enough. It will be interesting to see if Samus can give Sonic a better challenge in the next round.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com
From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/15/2002 9:53:28 PM | Message Detail
Hey, it's Jjukil! Hooray! Good to see you around again.

Great idea about the cache. I'm busy at the moment but I'll have a look through it soon and get back to you. Thanks.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 8/15/2002 9:55:42 PM | Message Detail
Keep up the good work Solar!
I'm wondering if I'm the only one here who has Link beating Cloud in the Final? I know that a lot of people in the Top 50 have either Link or Cloud going all the way but I'm afraid the the final will be Mario/Sephiroth or Mario/Megaman...
*brings in a huge "Go Link" flag and runs away*
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"Everything gold does not glitter
Not all those who wander are lost"
From: Ringworm | Posted: 8/15/2002 10:03:04 PM | Message Detail
You'll have some more stats to update now - check the results page. Apparently Spyro v Morrigan was a bit of an upset, I got it right though :P.
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Everyone that says "There's no such thing as a stupid question", has obviously never visited this board.
From: Fo tha luv of Moddyz | Posted: 8/15/2002 10:23:28 PM | Message Detail
Do you need a hobby?
From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/15/2002 11:01:04 PM | Message Detail
Sweet!!! Aw man, I've been wanting those numbers for so long! :) Spyro and Morrigan being an upset surprises me though. Cool.

Jjukil: I could only find 4 of the 21+ pages in my cache. Which sucks because I know I visited them all fairly recently when I was looking through them. Maybe some of the other regular visitors can look through their cache to find more. If anyone finds anything, email it to solarshadow@hotmail.com (not an email address I check often, but it should do the trick).
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com
From: SamusManCO2002 | Posted: 8/15/2002 11:27:02 PM | Message Detail
Ummmmm. Solar Shadow. Love the site. I would have enjoyed to do the stats myself, but alas, I don't have the no-know nor the time...
I've looked at the site and loved it except for one thing...
Is there a page with the odds for each character only? In a list exactly the same as CJayC's...if you don't, could you make one?
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SA2B: 180 Emblems
SSBM: 290 Trophies...The Dead Man is still walking....
From: TearHerEyes | Posted: 8/15/2002 11:34:30 PM | Message Detail
You really ought to do something more productive with all that time on your hands.
From: marsman57 | Posted: 8/15/2002 11:45:08 PM | Message Detail
Gahhhhhhhhhhhhhh... I was gonna tell you about the numbers CJayC posted, but then you already knew ^_^. Oh well, I'm glad you found them. Now you can number crunch for about a week and figure out who picked everything ^_^..... I think
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"Got a bad case of the Mondays? That's why Lord Chaos invented CAT COFFEE!" -- 8-bit theater
From: marsman57 | Posted: 8/15/2002 11:47:28 PM | Message Detail
Hmm... poor Little Mac. Less people picked him to advance than ANYONE else... even Servbot..
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"Got a bad case of the Mondays? That's why Lord Chaos invented CAT COFFEE!" -- 8-bit theater
From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/15/2002 11:51:04 PM | Message Detail
Tonight's Results:

5 - Samus Aran (36:1) - 39293 / 57.85% (67923) - 9726 / 58.0%
4 - Ryu (55:1) - 28630 / 42.15% (67923)

Updated Lists:

Top 10 Closest Matches (difference in brackets)

1) (ii) Donkey Kong 51.06% vs. Aya Brea 48.94% - (2.12%)
2) Strider Hiryu 52.57% vs. Raziel 47.43% - (5.14%)
3) Jill Valentine 53.34% vs. Kirby 46.66% - (6.68%)
4) Alucard 54.32% vs. Miles "Tails" Prower 45.68% - (8.64%)
5) Pikachu 54.41% vs. PaRappa The Rapper 45.59% - (8.82%)
6) Tidus 55.46% vs. Claire Redfield 44.54% - (10.92%)
7) Kyo Kusanagi 57.79% vs. Abe 42.21% - (15.58%)
8) (ii) Samus Aran 57.85% vs. Ryu 42.15% - (15.70%)
9) (ii) Bomberman 42.03% vs. Jill Valentine 57.97% - (15.94%)
10) Serious Sam 58.73% vs. Mr. Driller 41.27% - (17.46%)


Top 10 Most Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) (ii) Pikachu vs. Cloud Strife - 75371
2) Cloud Strife vs. Fox McCloud - 73242
3) Solid Snake vs. Squall Leonhart - 71676
4) (ii) Strider Hiryu vs. Link - 71262
5) Link vs. Little Mac - 70585
6) Jill Valentine vs. Kirby - 70376
7) Sephiroth vs. Gabe Logan - 69969
8) Mega Man vs. Ms. Pac-Man - 68296
9) (ii) Knuckles the Echidna vs. Solid Snake - 68083
10) (ii) Samus Aran vs. Ryu - 67923


Top 10 Most Impressive Losers (by votes)

1) Kirby - 32837
2) (ii) Aya Brea - 30478
3) (ii) Ryu - 28630
4) Miles "Tails" Prower - 28190
5) Claire Redfield - 28117
6) Raziel - 27661
7) (ii) Bomberman - 27432
8) (ii) Knuckles the Echidna - 26748
9) PaRappa The Rapper - 25736
10) (ii) Ryo Hazuki - 24834

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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com
From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/15/2002 11:58:01 PM | Message Detail
Special Update:

Now that CJayC has posted the North Division stats we can finally see which were the real easiest and hardest to predict matches. Ta da:

Top 10 Easiest Matches to Predict (based on percentage of contest entrants choosing the winner - First Round North Division included!)

1) Link 96.4% vs. Little Mac 3.6%
2) Mario 95.9% vs. Servbot 4.1%
3) Sonic the Hedgehog 95.6% vs. Pitfall Harry 4.4%
4) Donkey Kong 94.2% vs. Bub 5.8%
5) Mega Man 94.1% vs. Ms. Pac-Man 5.9%
6) Max Payne 91.9% vs. Dirk the Daring 8.1%
7) Sephiroth 90.2% vs. Gabe Logan 9.8%
8) Lara Croft 88.4% vs. Chop Chop Master Onion 11.6%
9) Ryu 87.0% vs. CATS 13.0%
10) Duke Nukem 83.9% vs. Iori Yagami 16.1%


Top 10 Hardest Matches to Predict (based on percentage of contest entrants choosing the winner - First Round North Division included!)

1) (ii) Alucard 28.8% vs. Duke Nukem
2) (ii) Bomberman vs. Jill Valentine 32.5%
3) (ii) Scorpion 33.6% vs. Max Payne
4) Morrigan Aensland 42.3% vs. Spyro the Dragon 57.7%
5) Gordon Freeman 56.3% vs. Tina Armstrong 43.7%
6) Abe 49.5% vs. Kyo Kusanagi 50.5%
7) Jill Valentine 50.8% vs. Kirby 49.2%
8) Alucard 51.4% vs. Miles "Tails" Prower 48.6%
9) (ii) Crono 51.8% vs. Dante
10) (ii) Aeris 53.5% vs. Tina Armstrong

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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com
From: Clout2k | Posted: 8/15/2002 11:59:42 PM | Message Detail
And I thought I was good at math. I guess it's a pretty simple process but i don't even want to think about sitting around trying to figure those out, good job man...
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DO NOT PURSUE LU BU!!!!
From: marsman57 | Posted: 8/16/2002 12:02:49 AM | Message Detail
Well, unless I'm mistaken, which I don't think I am, the hardest part of making the stats is figuring out how many people got each match correct. This is much easier now, which is really good because that means solarshadow gets more time to number crunch and otherwise compare the stats ^_^
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"Got a bad case of the Mondays? That's why Lord Chaos invented CAT COFFEE!" -- 8-bit theater
From: NeoElfboy | Posted: 8/16/2002 12:06:50 AM | Message Detail
*whistles*

Check out the slaughter. I see a number of lists needing updates tomorrow, Solar...

~NeoElfboy
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"Sometimes I think your massive intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon themselves and transform into stat bonuses!" -RM
<VetSCCer>
From: josh welling da man | Posted: 8/16/2002 12:15:34 AM | Message Detail
That is indeed, well done, but I'm just surprised that someone (some people) would take this contest so seriously as to make calculate statistics and make a dedicated site.

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Thanks for reading another post by the Great Josh Welling.
From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/16/2002 12:15:35 AM | Message Detail
marsman57: Yeah, that was always the hardest/most time consuming part. Most of the rest of it is just cut and pasting and rearranging the numbers. It looks daunting when you see them all at once, but it only takes 10-15 minutes each day to add in the newest match. Although the website is starting to take awhile to update with all those sections I've added.

Which reminds me, the website won't be further updated tonight. The stats sections are already updated (with the new prediction stuff too), but I'm going to wait until tomorrow to do the rest. Just so you know. I also snuck Spyro's name onto the poll, so you can vote again if that was your preferred choice (I didn't realize he deserved to be there until I saw the numbers).

SamusManCO2002: I've got the odds up here: https://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/odds.html
Is that what you were looking for?

NeoElfboy: *sigh* As much as I love seeing blowouts I always cringe because I know it means more work for me. :) Oh well, this one should be fun anyway.

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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com
From: Samberdog | Posted: 8/16/2002 12:16:26 AM | Message Detail
Morrigan VS Spryo is pretty surprising. Morrigan had much better odds, and although I got that match wrong, I never would have suspected that the majority of the players did too.

Either people seriously underestimated the popularity of Darkstalkers, or TJF really *was* at work. Hmmm...

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Muse of the Day: How come "thaw" and "unthaw" mean the same thing?
From: Jjukil | Posted: 8/16/2002 12:26:49 AM | Message Detail
I think people just overestimated Spyro. He never really caught on as much as they wanted him to--kind of like Crash, but moreso. He had a lot of TV spots, true, but didn't most of the stuff Sony published?

Thanks, Jjukil
From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/16/2002 12:33:32 AM | Message Detail
I'd probably agree with that. I was surprised at the amount of outrage on the boards when Spyro lost. I thought, it's just Spyro, have that many people played and enjoyed his games? Maybe they thought he could win on recognition, but I didn't even hesitate when picking Morrigan in my bracket.
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Full Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com
From: Notti | Posted: 8/16/2002 2:57:08 AM | Message Detail
It's... full of stars.
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~ Nottingham ~
"Never gonna get me. Never gonna get me. Never gonna get me I'm the..." http://www.infidels.org/~meta/getalife/
From: Kirby Still On Top | Posted: 8/16/2002 3:20:35 AM | Message Detail
Wowww, the north stats have finally come!!!

Hurray!!!!!!!

I can't wait to hear your analysis on todays match. I'm starting to fear MegaMan quite frankly...
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If at first you don't succeed, give up hope and smoke some weed!
From: Kirby Still On Top | Posted: 8/16/2002 3:27:48 AM | Message Detail
Nightly useless contribution :)

Top 49 contestants winners:
Mario - 15
Link - 14
Cloud - 6
Sephiroth - 5
Snake - 4
Lara - 2
Crono - 1
Mega Man - 1
Samus - 1

Bunch of randoms have appeared...
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If at first you don't succeed, give up hope and smoke some weed!
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